Workday遭遇成长的危险

    科技行业喜欢弱势群体，特别是那些充满斗志而且勇于挑战行业巨无霸的初创型企业。企业软件领域的Workday就处于这样的弱势地位。这家人力资源软件公司将业务模式建立在云技术之上，同时和甲骨文（Oracle）、SAP这样的大型企业正面抗衡。

    Workday成立于2005年，由戴夫•达菲尔德和安尼尔•布斯里创立。2004年，他们的公司仁科（PeopleSoft）遭到了甲骨文的敌意收购。达菲尔德是一名资深软件人，对甲骨文几乎没有感情可言。收购消息传来时，他正独自待在一家旅馆的房间里。

    Workday并不是一笔回报，恰恰相反，它代表着一个机遇，那就是在甲骨文尚未顾及的领域建立一家成功的软件公司。这个领域就是软件即服务（software as a service），或者说旨在满足云需求的人力资源软件项目。去年初，本刊撰稿人JP•曼加林丹注意到，Workday已经迫使甲骨文和SAP等大公司开始采取防守策略。

    2012年10月，Workday以每股28美元的价格首发上市，市值为45亿美元。随后的14个月中，这个数字增增至近三倍，达到140亿美元，是客户关系管理解决方案供应商Salesforce.com的一半，甲骨文的十一分之一。到截至下个月的财年中，Workday的收入预计将增长70%，接近上一财年77%的增幅。扩大收入的同时，这家公司也在逐步提升毛利润率，它上个季度的毛利润率已经达到了64%.

    几周前，Workday公布了超出预期的业绩。不仅如此，它自行预测的本季度收入也超过了分析师估算的水平，引起了华尔街的关注。本季度，这家公司又签下了50位客户，新推出的财务管理软件也引起了多家公司的兴趣，表明它有可能成功进入新的业务领域。分析人士对此感到很兴奋。

    研究机构Jeffries & Co.分析师罗斯•麦克米伦写道：“我们认为Workday是软件板块中上涨潜力最诱人的个股之一。”证券公司Pacific Crest分析师布伦丹•巴尼克尔也说：“这家公司的财务软件增长势头不减，非常令人鼓舞，因为这项业务是它今后继续增长的最大动力。”

    如果达菲尔德和布斯里打算复仇，那么他们已经接近目标了。和Salesforce.com一样，Workday正在让云技术企业软件所带来的希望逐步成为现实。按需服务的业务模式已经奏效，Workday也成了华尔街的宠儿——今年以来，这家公司的股价上涨了46%。这样的受青睐程度当然超过了目前股价和年初持平的SAP和甲骨文，甚至也超过了股价下跌9%的IBM。

    目前只有一个问题——盈利对Workday来说还遥不可及。利润是投资者非常重视的经营指标，从这个角度来说Workday尚未成功。

    看好Workday的投资者认为，这家公司为今后的增长投入了大量资金，而且每股亏损正在减少。上个季度，它每股亏损0.27美元，远低于一年前的0.67美元。这两点都没错，但每股亏损有误导作用：Workday的普通股已从一年前的6200万股增加到了1.74亿股，增幅接近300%。实际上，这家公司上个季度的净亏损从一年前的4100万美元增加到了4800万美元。

    运营费用占收入的百分比正在下降，但降幅不大。今年前9个月，Workday的运营费用/收入比例为132%，上年同期为145%。就算已经进入财务管理软件等新业务领域，但按照这样的速度计算，这家公司可能还需要再过几年时间才能实现盈利。

    下图所示为Workday的12个月静态收入和亏损。它的收入增长确实引人注目，但推动收入增长的是不断扩大的亏损额以及从业界巨擘那里夺取的市场份额，这一点和其他行业新贵一模一样。

    The technology industry loves an underdog, especially when a scrappy startup makes breakfast of a bloated incumbent. In enterprise software, Workday (WDAY) has emerged as just such an underdog, using a cloud-based business model to handle human-resources software and take on giants like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP).

    Workday was founded in 2005 by Dave Duffield and Aneel Bhusri a year after Oracle made a hostile and successful hostile bid for their previous company, PeopleSoft. Duffield, a software veteran who bore little love for Oracle, received the news in a lonely hotel room.

    Workday wasn't payback, as much as it was a chance to create a successful software company in an area where Oracle wasn't looking – software as a service, or human-resources programs tapped on demand in the cloud. By early last year, as JP Mangalindan noted at the time, Workday had Oracle, SAP and other giants on the defensive.

    In October 2012, Workday went public at $28 a share and a market value of $4.5 billion. In the 14 months since, Workday's market cap has nearly tripled to $14 billion. That's half the value of Salesforce.com (CRM) and one eleventh of Oracle's. The company's revenue is expected to grow 70% in its fiscal year ending next month, after rising 77% last year. That growth is coming as gross margins inch up, to 64% last quarter.

    A few weeks ago, Workday impressed Wall Street by not only beating analyst estimates but also by projecting even better revenue this quarter than they were expecting. Analysts found encouragement in the 50 new customers signed up in the quarter and the interest among companies in its new financial-management software, which showed the company may succeed into branching out into new areas.

    "We believe Workday has amongst the most attractive share gain potential in software," wroteRoss MacMillan of Jeffries & Co. Added Pacific Crest's Brendan Barnicle, "The continued momentum of the financials product is very encouraging, because it is the biggest source of future continued growth for the company."

    If Duffield and Bhusri were looking for revenge, they were close having it. Like Salesforce.com, Workday showed the promise of the cloud in enterprise software was being fulfilled today. The on-demand model is working. Wall Street loves Workday -- sending it up 46% year-to-date -- certainly more than it loved SAP and Oracle, which are flat with the beginning of the year, or even IBM (IBM), which is down 9%.

    There is only one problem. Workday is nowhere near showing a profit. The bottom line -- the metric that is most closely watched among investors -- isn't measuring success.

    Workday bulls argue that the company is investing heavily in future growth, and that the per-share loss is declining. In the most recent quarter, Workday posted a net loss of 27 cents a share, down from 67 cents a year earlier. Both points are true, but the per-share loss is misleading: The company's common shares outstanding nearly tripled over the past year to 174 million from 62 million. The actual net loss rose to $48 million last quarter from $41 million a year earlier.

    Operating expenses are declining as a percentage of revenue, but not by much. In the first nine months of this year, total operating expenses were equal to 132% of Workday's revenue. In the same period in 2012, they were equal to 145%. Granted, Workday was moving into new areas like financial-management software, but at this rate it could take several years for Workday to see black ink.

    The chart below shows the trailing 12-month revenues and losses for Workday. The company is fueling its impressive revenue growth by adding to its losses, taking market share from incumbent giants as an upstart challenger must do.

    此外，就算从收入增长的角度进行评估，Workday在股市中的表现也已经体现出了它在几年之后才能取得的成就。按目前股价计算，这家公司的本财年预期股价/每股销售额比例为30倍，而Salesforce.com今年的股价/每股销售额比例只有7.5倍。

    Salesforce.com于2004年首发，上市时间较长。从下图中可以看出，在这个较长的时间段内，伴随它收入不断上升的既有亏损，也有小幅盈利。几年来，Salesforce.com的营业利润率一直在负9%到负1%之间波动，不像Workday表现得那么糟糕，但和甲骨文40%左右的营业利润率相比仍相差甚远。

    But even valued against growing revenue, Workday is priced for success that lies several years away. At its current stock price, Workday is trading at 30 times its estimated earnings for the current fiscal year. That compares to a price-to-sales ratio of 7.5 for Salesforce.com.

    Salesforce has a longer history in the stock market, having debuted in 2004. Its chart shows a longer trend of rising revenue coupled with net losses or slim profits. Salesforce's operating margins have hovered between -1% and -9% for the past couple of years, not as bad as Workday's but also nowhere near Oracle's, which have averaged around 40%.