2014年CES前瞻：寻找下一个大事件

    与往常一样，今年的消费电子展（Consumer Electronics Show）依然是一场科技盛宴，充满了各种光怪陆离的产品。而与此同时，今年在拉斯维加斯举办的大会，也为投资者和华尔街提供了一个选择机会，给这个年收入达万亿美元的行业把把脉。

    2014年，消费电子行业的心跳水平高于往年。据经济学家肖恩•杜布拉维奇预测，未来几个月，科技收入将下降——年比减少1%，至1.055万亿美元，将对增长预期产生重大影响。此次展会便由杜布拉维奇所在的协会主办。（杜布拉维奇认为，收入减少应该归因于平板设备和智能手机平均销售价格的下降，与全球减少总体科技开支无关。忠告：平板设备与智能手机目前占全球科技销售额的43%。）

    可以肯定地说，今年对于能够创造新业务的创新理念的需求将尤为强烈。

    此次贸易展于周二正式开幕，不过早在周日，媒体就提前收到了主办方提供的此次参展商品的简介。与往常一样，这些设备有不少闪光点，但却不足以为整个行业指明未来的发展方向。什么是今年展会的热门展品？到目前为止仍不清楚，这一点与往年也有很大不同。

    当然，这并不意味着今年的展品都平淡无奇。施文公司（Schwinn）推出CycleNav“智能自行车”导航仪，对于这家历史悠久的美国公司来说，此举可谓一次华丽的转身。太阳能设备制造商WakaWaka的太阳能充电展品也非常新奇。音频设备制造商Clear View Audio的“隐形”扬声器给我留下了深刻印象。然而，总体而言，今年参展的商品都不足以改变整个行业的发展方向。

    今年大家热议的重点是“可穿戴设备”市场，其中包括联网的手表、数字健康监控设备和类似的“智能设备”。（看，《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）的乔安娜•斯特恩还提出了蓝牙牙刷的创意！）然而，这个新兴市场仍处于混乱状态，也没有明确的定义——比如，到底什么才是智能手表？人们能用它来做什么？——而今年各大厂商将如何寻求突破？所有这一切我们都无从得知。多年以来，索尼（Sony）和其他电子设备制造商一直在提供这类设备，却始终未能抓住消费者的心。

    我在此次展会上确实发现了一些非常有趣（令人意外的是也非常时尚）的可穿戴设备，然而这些设备并没有特别的创新。它们都是通过蓝牙与智能手机连接，能够显示佩戴者健康方面的数据等。这些产品肯定能受到疑病症患者的欢迎，但要想扩大市场，恐怕会面临更大的挑战。

    周一的“媒体日”上，各大科技巨头相继召开新闻发布会。例如，LG和三星（Samsung）计划推出一系列“超高清”或4K电视。（依旧是2013年的老话题！）毫无疑问，索尼、夏普（Sharp）和松下（Panasonic）肯定会还击，或许会公布夺回昔日荣光的计划。

    同时，我会一直寻找今年的“金羊毛”（源自希腊神话，指人人都希望得到的珍贵宝物——译注）。但到目前为止，从我的所见所闻来看，或许我得等到2015年了。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    This year's Consumer Electronics Show, as it is every year, is typically a celebration of technology and all things nerdy. But the Las Vegas mega-conference also presents a choice opportunity for investors and Wall Street to take the pulse of a $1 trillion-a-year business.

    In 2014, the industry's baseline heart rate matters more than ever. Technology revenue is expected to decline in the coming months -- down 1% year over year to $1.055 trillion, according to economist Shawn DuBravac, who works for the association that puts on the show -- a burden that could weigh heavily on growth prospects. (DuBravac noted that the fall-off in revenue came thanks to a decrease in the average selling price of tablets and smartphones, and not due to some global pull-back in overall technology spending. The caveat: Tablets and smartphones now represent 43% of global technology sales.)

    It's safe to say that this year, innovative ideas for new lines of business are in especially high demand.

    The trade show officially opens on Tuesday, but on Sunday members of the press were given a sneak preview of things to come. The gadgets glimmered as usual, but there lacked a clear way forward for the industry. The hot gadget at this year's show? So far it's unclear, a departure from years past.

    That's not to say that the gadgets I saw weren't cool. Schwinn's bike CycleNav "Smart Bike" Navigator was a departure for the longstanding American company. WakaWaka's solar-powered gadgets were novel. And Clear View Audio's "invisible" audio speaker certainly left an impression. On the whole, though, nothing on display promised to change the course of the industry.

    The buzz this year is centered on the "wearables" market, which encompasses connected watches, digital health monitoring devices, and similar "smart" items. (Look, there's the Wall Street Journal's Joanna Stern with a Bluetooth toothbrush!) But this budding market is rather disjointed and fairly undefined -- what is a smartwatch, exactly, and what is one supposed to do with it? -- and it's unclear how this year will be any different. For years, Sony (SNE) and other electronics manufacturers have offered such devices, but none of them took hold with consumers.

    I did spot several interesting (and surprisingly fashionable) wearables, but none were particularly innovative. All of them connect to your smartphone via Bluetooth and spout out data about some aspect of your health. That's desirable if you are a hypochondriac, but it's more challenging to make the case for the broader market.

    At CES Monday, many of technology's largest companies will hold their own press conferences, in a back-to-back format known as "Press Day." For example, LG and Samsung are set to reveal a bunch of "ultra high definition," or 4K, televisions. (Soooo 2013.) Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic will no doubt return the volley, and perhaps reveal how they plan to recapture lost glory days. (Ahem.)

    In the meantime, I will keep searching for this year's golden fleece. From what I have seen and heard so far, though, I may have to wait till 2015.