可穿戴技术只是少数人的游戏吗

    实际一点吧：在硅谷之外，谁会愿意戴着这么个玩意儿出门？

    到2016年，穿戴式计算机市值可能会达到60亿美元的规模。但目前，这个领域尚处于口水多，干货少的阶段。

    大部分之前试用过谷歌（Google）眼镜的人都认为：谷歌眼镜有很大潜力，但还需要大幅改进。比如，在语音识别命令功能上，谷歌眼镜还有不少弊端；而且，它的外观设计与《星际迷航》（Star Trek）中的道具太过相似。与此同时，人们对其它可穿戴配件，如三星（Samsung）Galaxy Gear智能手表的接受度也不高。这些设备在功能方面还很有限。以三星为例，Galaxy Gear智能手表仅适用于一小部分手机——当然，还都是三星品牌的。而且在健身市场之外，这些设备也都因价格太高而毫无竞争力。【据《纽约时报》（New York Times）报道，谷歌眼镜将在今年晚些时候上市，零售价会在250美元到600美元之间。】

    消费电子产品公司Roku首席执行官安东尼•伍德对这种可穿戴硬件的态度也说不上热情。他说：“我觉得手表尤其怪异——如果我还是个小孩子，说不定会买一个来戴着玩”。

    弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）分析师JP•高恩德认为，可穿戴设备正在经历“炒作泡沫”。高德恩将这个市场与1999年的因特网相比较。他说：“找到真正与因特网相关的商业模式之前，很多的尝试都以失败告终，比如Pets.com。”他认为穿戴式计算机企业正在经历相同的状况。“这些企业中很少有优秀的商业模式，大部分消费者也没有购买这类产品的需求。”

    只有在健身行业，可穿戴设备还算比较多见。包括耐克（Nike）、可穿戴设备公司Fitbit和Jawbone在内，至少有10家公司都出售一种腕带，它们能跟踪记录人们在做不同活动（比如跑步或睡觉）时的各项身体指标。高恩德承认：“2013年的健身行业一片混乱。”他认为这些公司的“企业对消费者”（B2C）商业模式市场不大，容量也很有限。“这种模式潜在的消费者只有健身狂人、超重人士，以及‘量化生活达人’。”这里的量化生活达人指的是那些着了魔似的记录自己的步数、睡眠及其它活动的人，这种“量化生活”已形成一种趋势。

    可穿戴技术遇冷或许只是因为B2C这种商业模式不适合？Box公司CEO亚伦•莱维在去年下半年试用谷歌眼镜之后，对它也是反应平平。在他看来，谷歌眼镜的营销策略完全大错特错。他认为，谷歌眼镜应该被重新定位到工业或企业领域：“大家可以想像一下，这种成本极低又能解放双手的电脑技术在医疗行业会发挥多么大的作用；还可以想想，它们能会为生产型企业和修理发动机的人带来多么大的方便。”

    或许，只有当极客一族的人数足够多时，谷歌眼镜的前景才能有所改善。（财富中文网）

    译者：朱毓芬/汪皓   

    Let's get real: Who would want to be caught wearing this out of Silicon Valley?

    Wearable computers may be a market worth as much as $6 billion by 2016, but for now it's a category with more hype and little substance.

    Early users of Google (GOOG) Glass device, often agree on one thing: It's got great potential but needs a lot of work. Voice recognition for commands is still buggy, and the industrial design resembles a Star Trek prop. Meanwhile, attempts at other wearable accessories like theSamsung Galaxy Gear smartwatch haven't been well-received. The devices are still pretty limited in terms of what users can do, and in Samsung's case, the device only works with a small number of phones -- all Samsung (SSNLF), of course. And, outside the fitness market, few devices are priced low enough to be competitive. (Google Glass could retail for between $250 and $600 when it arrives later this year, according to the New York Times.)

    Anthony Wood, CEO of Roku, is less than enthusiastic about the hardware category. "Watches in particular strike me as being particularly geeky -- something I'd have wanted to play with as a kid," he says.

    Forrester Research analyst JP Gownder says wearables are experiencing a "hype bubble," comparing the market to the Internet of 1999. "It took many failed experiments like Pets.com before we found real business models associated with the Internet," says Gownder. He says the same goes for wearable computing companies. "Most of them don't have good business models, and most consumers don't know why they'd be buying these things."

    Where wearables aren't scarce is fitness. No less than 10 different vendors, including Nike (NKE), Fitbit, and Jawbone have wristbands that track different activities like running and sleep. "In fitness, 2013 was kind of a mess," admits Gownder, who argues their business-to-consumer (B2C) approach is a small, limited market. "It's people who are fitness fanatics, people who are overweight, and people who are quantified selfers," referring to the trend of people obsessively tracking their steps, sleep, and other movements.

    But perhaps it's the B2C part that's the ill fit? Box CEO Aaron Levie, underwhelmed when he tried Glass late last year, argues the marketing around it is all wrong. He thinks it should be repositioned for the industrial or enterprise worlds. Says Levie: "Think about what very low-cost, hands-free computing can do for the health care industry, or what it could do for production, for somebody who's doing repairs of engines."

    Maybe enough of those geeks could make the view of Google Glass a little more rose-colored.