2014年全球汽车业的14个预言

    给来年做预测总是件冒险的事，因为它本质上是建立在读者的美好意愿上，而更要命的是，读者们往往又是健忘的。

    有时候，事情的发展甚至会超出最富想象力的预测。预测玛丽•芭拉将继任通用汽车（GM）的首席执行官相对而言难度不大，尽管12月份爆出这一消息的时机出乎了大多数人的意料。

    但是谁能想到底特律“铁锈地带”（指从前工业繁盛，今已衰落的一些地区——译注）的高管之一，福特（Ford）的艾伦•穆拉利会成为科技巨头微软（Microsoft）的领袖候选人？尤其是福特在MyTouch仪表盘的控制系统上采用微软技术引发一系列麻烦之后。

    我们不妨把这些告诫谨记于心，然后再来预测一下汽车界在接下来一年中将会发生的事件——有一些是认真严肃的判断，另一些则本着“一切皆有可能”的精神。

    Making predictions for the year ahead is always a hazardous business, by its nature dependent on the good will of readers, not to mention short memories.

    Stuff happens that confounds even the most imaginative forecasts. Predicting that Mary Barra was headed for the CEO job at GM (GM, Fortune 500) was relatively pothole-free, although the December timing took most people by surprise.

    But who would have guessed that one of Detroit's Rust Belt executives, Ford's Alan Mulally, would emerge as the leading candidate to run tech giant Microsoft (MSFT,Fortune 500) -- especially after all the trouble Ford (F, Fortune 500) has had integrating Microsoft technology in its MyTouch instrument panel control system?

    With those caveats in mind, here are some guesses about what awaits MotorWorld in the year ahead -- some serious, others in an "anything can happen" spirit.