任天堂要玩完了吗？

    大约在30年前，任天堂（Nintendo）赋予了视频游戏行业新生，给予了它再次发展的机会。1985年，原创的任天堂娱乐系统（Nintendo Entertainment System）在北美国际玩具展览会（North American International Toy Fair）上亮相时，甚至已经没人想玩视频游戏了。当时，视频游戏业的收入一落千丈，已经从1983年的32亿美元狂跌至1985年的1亿美元。

    时间快进到2013年，电视游戏行业已经“升级”，年收入达到了930亿美元——根据美国咨询公司高德纳（Gartner）的研究，这个数值将会在2015年达到1,110亿美元。如今的问题在于，任天堂是否仍然是做大这块蛋糕的一份子。1889年，这家公司成立时是一家游戏纸牌的生产商，多年后才不得不转型做游戏。如今，面对Wii U电视游戏主机的销量跳水，任天堂恐怕又得再次转型了。

    上个月，任天堂总裁岩田聪宣布，公司调整了截至2014年3月31日的财年的合并财务预测。最新的预计不容乐观：任天堂将Wii U的预计销量下调了超过三分之二，从原来的900万台减少到了280万台，还将预计的游戏销量下调一半减少到了1,900万套。2012年11月推出的Wii U远不如初代Wii火爆。后者于2006年面世，全球销量已经超过了1亿台。

    然而，任天堂的不幸之一在于，尽管它的初代Wii走俏，却并没有完全带动游戏软件的销量，而后者的大卖才是电视游戏的硬件制造商想要、甚至一定要看到的。独立电视游戏分析家比利•皮吉昂说：“硬件营销的全部意义在于出售游戏软件。比起其他厂商，任天堂确实从硬件上实现了盈利，但这点利润最后真的没什么意义。”

    初代Wii确实拥有庞大的用户基础，不过这还不够。皮吉昂说：“他们已经卖掉了那么多主机，就应该随之推出更多的游戏软件。而很多情况下人们购买了Wii，却只玩随机附带的那一款游戏。”

    自任天堂于1月宣布下调预期以来，人们就开始提出问题：任天堂是应坚持自己的战略，再试一试，还是应该换种方式解决问题？（公主兴许就在下个城堡里呢？）从1月中旬岩田聪发表声明起，就有议论认为，这家公司应当将战略中心转向为其他设备开发游戏。信息和数据分析公司IHS Technology的游戏调研主管皮尔斯•哈丁-罗尔斯表示，如果任天堂将马里奥和其他小伙伴们移植到手机和平板电脑上，就可以在短期内增加公司的收入。不过，任天堂似乎已经决定坚持自身的核心战略。

    哈丁-罗尔斯在一份市场观察报告中写道：“与苹果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、甚至维尔福（Valve）类似，任天堂遵循着自己的产品开发路线，对追随收效甚微的市场潮流毫不动心。短期效益和微薄收入无法撼动它长期的战略目标。任天堂围绕着创新主题掷重金豪赌，这种策略增加了风险，但却能带来丰厚的回报。”

    哈丁-罗尔斯表示，任天堂已经承认Wii U的处境非常糟糕，但公司不会考虑任何短期的补救措施，比如降价。相反，任天堂或许会将注意力转向Wii UGamePad游戏手柄这样的配件。但这些举措甚至连短期内的问题都解决不了。

    Nearly 30 years ago, Nintendo essentially gave the videogame industry a new life, and a second chance. In 1985, when the original Nintendo Entertainment System debuted at the North American International Toy Fair, no one even wanted to think about videogames after the great crash that saw revenues fall from $3.2 billion in 1983 to just $100 million in 1985.

    Fast-forward to 2013. The industry has "leveled up," so to speak, to $93 billion in 2013 -- and according to research from Gartner, that figure could reach $111 billion by 2015. The question now is whether Nintendo will still be a part of it. The company, which was founded in 1889 as a playing-card maker, has had to reinvent itself over the years. It may need to do so again as it faces declining sales of its Wii U videogame console.

    Last month, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata announced that the company had revised its full-year consolidated financial forecast for the fiscal year ending Mar. 31, 2014. Its new outlook was not good: Nintendo cut its forecast for its Wii U's annual sales by more than two thirds, from 9 million to 2.8 million, and also halved the projection for game sales to just 19 million units. The Wii U, which came out in November 2012, is far from the hit that was the original Wii, which came out in 2006 and has sold more than 100 million units worldwide.

    However, part of Nintendo's woes could be that the original Wii sold well, but didn't exactly result in massive subsequent software sales, which is what any videogame hardware maker wants -- and even has to see. "The whole point of a hardware play is to sell software," independent videogame analyst Billy Pidgeon said. "Nintendo does make money on the hardware while others don't, but in the end that is really inconsequential."

    The original Wii did have a great install base, but that wasn't enough, Pidgeon said. "They had so much hardware out there that it should have moved a lot more software," he said. "There were far too many cases where the Wii was bought by people who just played the one game that came with it."

    Since the January announcement, the question has been raised: Should Nintendo stick with its strategy and try again, or move on to a different approach? (Is the princess in the next castle?) Since the mid-January statements by Iwata, there has been chatter that the company could shift its focus to developing games for other devices. Piers Harding-Rolls, director of games research at IHS Technology, said that this could lead to short-term revenue growth as Mario and friends move to mobile devices and tablets. But it appears that the company has already opted to stick to its core strategy.

    "Nintendo, similar to Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and perhaps even Valve, follows its own product development path and is reticent to follow market trends where it can only make a marginal impact," Harding-Rolls noted in his market insight report. "A short-term, or marginal impact is not aligned to its long-term strategic goals where it seeks to make relatively big bets around innovation, which increases risk but offers significant rewards."

    Nintendo has acknowledged that the Wii U is in a terrible position, Harding-Rolls said, but the company has ruled out any short-term fixes such as lowering the price. Instead, Nintendo may seek to concentrate on accessories such as the Wii U GamePad. But that could do little to solve the problems even in the short term.