比特币走背字的这些日子

    1月27日，星期一，比特币基金会（Bitcoin Foundation）董事会创始成员兼BitInstant交易所首席执行官查理•施瑞姆因洗钱指控而遭逮捕。之后两周对这种数字货币来说可谓流年不利，先是苹果公司（Apple）将最后一款原生的比特币钱包应用从应用商店（App Store）中下架，现在则是在如此四面楚歌的环境下，令人尊敬的比特币交易平台Mt. Gox显然也即将宣告关门大吉。这个动荡异常的比特币市场中的最新一则消息是，本周一晚上，比特币的价格在24小时内下跌超过20%，随后又反弹到接近700美元的价位。2013年12月初的时候，比特币还曾位于超过1100美元的高价。因此，这次下跌真是让人翻江倒海、五味杂陈。

    一些人开始表示，这些情况表明这股流行热潮玩完了，而那些长期对比特币持怀疑态度的人更是幸灾乐祸。同时也很明显的是，不少比特币持有者开始抛售了。不过，这一连串坏消息的相关细节却并不完全和这种末日降临的气氛相吻合。没有迹象表明，比特币背后的理念、技术及快速发展的行业势头受到了严重削弱。恰恰相反，比特币目前正好处于一种强有力的新观念从边缘转变为主流的状态。

    让我们先从施瑞姆被捕说起。对他的指控基本上跟比特币本身没什么关系。相关诉状和新闻报道所描述的是，施瑞姆其人如何傲慢地愚弄了现行法律，故意为麻醉品交易提供帮助。比特币在技术至上的程序员和死硬派自由主义者这两个群体中根基很深，他们中有些人经常跟不公正、无效率的法律唱反调，有时甚至干脆违反这些法律。但是，尽管少量洗钱分子还会继续把比特币当成犯罪工具之一，但比特币社群中日益提高的遵守法规的意识，以及越来越多、完全合法的利润正面临风险，都意味着有兴趣做出违法勾当的知名比特币创业者和支持者会变得越来越少。

    对现在的多数比特币参与者来说，他们多是从兴趣或副业开始起步的，现在这股趋势则是他们开始走向专业化的一部分。没有什么能比Mt. Gox交易所不断走向衰亡的事实更能说明这个转变的了。Mt.Gox这个名字最初的意思是“万智牌（Magic The Gathering，世界上第一个集换式卡牌对战游戏，亦是目前全球最多人参与的同类型游戏——译注）网上交易所”，它的创始人本来是打算将这个网站打造成买卖流行游戏点卡的地方，结果它却意外地成了全球第一个比特币交易所。

    然后它变成了一桩规模数百万美元的生意，这个交易量超出了创始人所能应付的技术水平。他们既不是生意老手，后来事实证明他们也不是天赋出众的开发者。近两年时间里，他们老是怪这个网站因为一些奇怪的比特币代码而临时关闭，而其他交易所开发者早已熟知了这些代码——所以我们还可以在他们所不擅长的事情中加上管理混乱这一点。比特币资深人士几个月来一直对Mt.Gox的情况发出警告。和施瑞姆被捕一样，这个交易所的衰败也会让比特币圈子里少一个拙劣的玩家，而尽管现在市场暂时发生了震荡，但那些留下来的参与者日子只会过得更好。

    而当苹果公司在应用商店中封杀了Blockchain钱包应用这个消息传来后，比特币未来的一线希望就变得有点渺茫了。近几个月来，苹果一直在清除这种钱包，没有Blockchain之后，iOS的用户就没法从苹果设备上收发比特币了。此前，苹果已经允许Blockchain在iOS系统中免费运行了近两年，现在去突然做出了这个封杀的决定，而且连一句解释都没有。

    On Monday, Jan. 27, Charlie Shrem, a founding member of the Bitcoin Foundation board and CEO of the BitInstant exchange, was arrested on money laundering charges. The two weeks since then have not been kind to the digital currency, with Apple (AAPL) removing the last native bitcoin wallet application from the App Store, and now the apparent demise of venerable bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox, unfolding under extremely troubling circumstances. That last piece of news in particular rocked markets, with bitcoin prices dropping more than 20% in 24 hours before rebounding to just under $700 by Monday evening. That's a truly stomach-flipping drop from highs of over $1,100 in early December 2013.

    Some have said this is the death of a fad, with longtime skeptics revving up the schadenfreude. And obviously, more than a few bitcoin holders are selling. But the details of this string of bad news don't match the sense of doom. There's no indication that the power of the ideas, technology, or growing industry behind bitcoin have been seriously weakened. Instead, what bitcoin is going through right now is exactly what you'd expect of a powerful new idea transitioning from the fringe to the mainstream.

    Let's start with Shrem's arrest. The complaint against him has almost nothing to do with bitcoin itself. The legal complaint and news stories about Shrem depict a man who cavalierly flouted existing law to knowingly aid in narcotics trafficking. Bitcoin has deep roots in communities of both technocratic programmers and hardcore libertarians, some of whom occasionally move from disagreeing with unjust or inefficient laws to breaking them outright. But, while small-time money launderers will continue to use bitcoin as part of their arsenal, the increasing awareness of compliance regulations in the bitcoin community, and the increasing amount of fully legal profit at stake, mean fewer and fewer high-profile bitcoin entrepreneurs and advocates will be interested in working outside the law.

    This is part of the professionalization of what started out as a hobby or sideline for most current players. Nothing illustrates that transition quite like the ongoing fall of the Mt. Gox exchange. The name Mt. Gox originally stood for "Magic the Gathering Online Exchange," and its original owner intended to set the site up as a place to buy and sell cards from the popular game. It ended up the world's first Bitcoin exchange almost by accident.

    Then it turned into a multi-million dollar business, and the volume outpaced its founders' skill-set. These were neither experienced businessmen nor, it has emerged, very talented developers. They have blamed the site's temporary shutdown on a small quirk of the bitcoin code that has been well known to every other exchange developer for nearly two years -- so we can add spin management to the list of things they're not very good at. Bitcoin veterans have been sounding warnings about Mt. Gox for months. Like Shrem's arrest, its fall will remove a bad actor from the landscape, and despite the temporary shock, the players left behind will be better off.

    The silver lining is only slightly more hazy in the news that Apple has removed the Blockchain wallet application from the App Store. Apple has been steadily removing wallets over recent months, and with Blockchain gone, iOS users have no ability to send and receive bitcoin from their devices. Apple has offered no explanation of its decision, made after nearly two years of allowing Blockchain to operate freely within iOS.