报道称复星国际低价收购福布斯成交在即

    去年秋天，有消息称福布斯传媒（Forbes Media LLC）正在挂牌待售，同时还聘用了德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）寻找买家。当时，报道称，福布斯的要价是4亿美元。这个价格令人咋舌，不仅远高于其他商业媒体的估值，甚至也远远高于福布斯股东、私募股权公司Elevation Partners对它的估值。

    传言中的买家包括德国出版公司Axel Springer和新加坡集团企业Spice Global。

    但近日有一篇报道称，福布斯即将达成一项交易，以“低于2.50亿美元”的价格卖给中国的复星国际（Fosun International）。

    由此，有两个问题浮出了水面：第一，复星国际是什么来头？第二，福布斯真的打算以不到2.50亿美元的价格出售吗？

    复星国际：将“巴菲特模式”引入中国

    复星是一家在香港上市的公司，由亿万富翁、董事长郭广昌掌控。它在中国涉足的业务领域非常广泛，包括房地产、保险、医药、铁矿石开采、钢铁制造和私募股权等众多领域。2013年上半年（最近报告期），复兴国际公布的收入为40亿美元。近年来，这家公司正在积极拓展自己在中国境外的业务。

    过去几年中，复星成功参股了希腊时尚公司Folli Follie，支付7.25亿美元从摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）手中购得了纽约第一大通曼哈顿广场（One Chase Manhattan Plaza），收购了Club Med和以色列的一家医疗设备制造商，投资了美国奢侈品品牌St. John Knits International，此外还通过与保德信金融集团（Prudential Financial）和鼎睿再保险公司（Peak Reinsurance）设立合资公司强化了保险资产。

    郭广昌称，他对复星抱有更远大的雄心。今年竞购葡萄牙最大保险公司成功后，他在一份声明中称：“它标志着复星朝着沃伦•巴菲特模式迈出了坚实一步。”或许这也意味着，复星将效法巴菲特投资平面媒体。巴菲特很早就开始持有华盛顿邮报公司（The Washington Post Co.）的股份并持有多年, 但他最近把这些股份卖给了亚马逊（Amazon）创始人杰夫•贝佐斯。复星国际业已是《福布斯》（中文版）的出版人，这家媒体在中国拥有强大的品牌影响力。

    收购福布斯的传言出现后，上周四复星国际股价在香港一度下跌2%，但最终收盘收复失地，基本持平。复星国际投资者关系高级总监上周四未回复电话和邮件。

    "Less than $250 million"

    “低于2.50亿美元”

    去年秋季，福布斯首次挂牌出售时，多位消息人士告诉我称，时代华纳（Time Warner）曾出价1.75亿美元左右，但被一口回绝。未获通过，不进入第二轮出价。【注:《财富》杂志由时代华纳（Time Warner）子公司时代公司（Time Inc.）出版。】

    但如果福布斯最终以“低于2.50亿美元”出售，为什么它当初不要求出价1.75亿美元的买家提高点价格？如果没有其他原因，福布斯是不是想从价格上给复星这样出手更阔绰的潜在买家施加一些压力?看起来似乎说不通。

    我们只能给出三种可能的解释：

    1.潜在买家们最初的出价确实要高得多，但福布斯第一季度的表现绝对可以用“灾难性”来形容。

    2.细节是魔鬼。TheStreet.com提到，根据复星的交易条款，福布斯家族将“保留一部分福布斯股份”。因此，“低于2.50亿美元”可能是复星要支付的价格，但实际企业价值还要高一点。

    3.TheStreet.com搞错了，福布斯的实际售价明显高于2.50亿美元（一位了解情况的消息人士前一天晚上这样告诉我。）请记住，由于原先与Elevation Partners达成的一项优先股交易，任何低于2.64亿美元的价格都意味着福布斯家族不能获得任何现金流。

    目前，我们知道、同时也可以确定的一点是，虽然复星作为买家合情合理，但新的价格谈判跟福布斯和它聘请的银行家们去年秋天展开的谈判可能已经不是一回事。（财富中文网）

    Last fall came word that Forbes Media LLC was on the block for a reported $400 million, with Deutsche Bank (DB) hired to find a buyer. The price-tag was stunning. Not only was it a much larger multiple than where other business media properties were valued, but even Forbes shareholder Elevation Partners was holding it at a much lower cost.

    Rumored suitors included German publisher Axel Springer and Singapore-based conglomerate Spice Global.

    Then yesterday came a report that Forbes was nearing a deal to sell itself for "less than $250 million" to China's Fosun International.

    So two questions: What is Fosun International, and is Forbes really going to be sold for less than $250 million?

    Fosun: Bringing 'Buffett Model' top China

    Fosun is publicly-traded in Hong Kong, and controlled by billionaire chairman Guo Guangchang. In China, it runs sprawling businesses in real estate, insurance, pharmaceuticals, iron ore mining, steel-making and private equity. Over the first six months of 2013, the latest reporting period, the company posted revenue of $4 billion. More recently, it has been expanding its operations outside of China's borders.

    Over the past few years, Fosun has bought a stake in the Greek fashion label Folli Follie, paid $725 million to J.P. Morgan (JPM) for One Chase Manhattan Plaza in New York, acquired Club Med, bought an Israeli medical equipment maker, invested in the U.S. luxury brand St. John Knits International and boosted insurance assets after launching ventures with Prudential Financial and Peak Reinsurance in China.

    Guo says he has even bigger ambitions for Fosun. After winning the bid for Portugal's biggest insurance company earlier this year, he said in a statement, "This marks a solid step for Fosun to evolve into Warren Buffett's model." Perhaps that also means the Oracle's investments in print media. Buffett was an early and longtime holder of The Washington Post Co., which was recently sold to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. Fosun already publishes Forbes' Chinese edition, which enjoys a strong brand in the county.

    Fosun International dropped 2% in Hong Kong trading on Thursday following the Forbes buyout rumors, before eventually climbing back to end the day little changed. The company's senior director of investor relations didn't respond to e-mails and calls on Thursday.

    When Forbes first went on the block last fall, multiple sources tell me that Time Warner (TWX) offered around $175 million but was completely rebuffed. Do not pass go, do not come into the second round of bidding. (note: Fortune is published by Time Warner subsidiary Time Inc.).

    But if Forbes is ultimately going to sell for "less than $250 million," why wouldn't a $175 million bidder been asked to sweeten the pot? If, for no other reason, than to possibly put some pricing pressure on more generous suitors like Fosun? Just doesn't seem to make sense.

    We can only come up with three possible explanations:

    1. Initial bids were indeed much higher, but Forbes is having an absolutely disastrous Q1.

    2. The devil is in details. TheStreet.com mentions that, under terms of the Fosun deal, the Forbes family would "to retain a stake in the business." So perhaps "less than $250 million" is what Fosun would pay, but the actual enterprise value is actually a bit higher.

    3. TheStreet.com is wrong, and Forbes actually is going to sell for well more than $250 million (something that a source familiar with the situation was telling me last night). Remember, any price below $264 million means that the Forbes family doesn't get any liquidity, due to a prior preferred stock deal with Elevation Partners.

    All we know for sure is that while Fosun makes sense as the buyer, the new price talk doesn't comport with what Forbes and its bankers did last fall.