特斯拉50亿美元超级电池厂大猜想

    创新电动汽车制造商特斯拉汽车公司（Tesla Motors）希望发展成一家大牌汽车公司。要实现这个目标，它需要生产出成千上万辆汽车，而不仅仅是2013年22,300辆的产量。

    这意味着特斯拉需要一个比目前规模大得多的新电池厂。

    2月26日，这家电动汽车制造商披露了关于“Gigafactory”的一些细节。特斯拉计划将“Gigafactory”设计成一家大型工厂，这家厂到2020年的预计产能将比2013年全球锂电池总产量还要多。新工厂面积为1000万平方英尺（约合93万平方米），预计每年可生产50千兆瓦时的电池组。这些电池组将用在Model S豪华轿车和一款价格较低的三代大众市场汽车上。预计到2020年，这个工厂每年可为500,000辆汽车供应电池。

    新工厂将雇佣约6,500名员工，预计在进入量产的第一年末，就可将锂电池组的每千瓦时成本减少30%。这一点对于公司CEO埃隆•穆斯克的目标来说可谓必不可少。穆斯克正在努力把汽车价格降到Model S豪华轿车的一半，而Model S的起价为70,000美元。

    Tesla Motors, the innovative electric car company, wants to be a bigtime automaker. To achieve that, it needs to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles more than the 22,300 electric vehicles it made in 2013.

    Which means it's going to need a bigger battery factory. A much, much bigger one.

    On Feb. 26, the electric automaker revealed the first details for its so-called Gigafactory, a massive facility that will be designed to produce more lithium-ion batteries annually by 2020 than were made worldwide in 2013. At 10 million square feet, Tesla estimates that the plant will have the capacity to produce 50 gigawatt hours of battery packs a year, which will be used for its Model S luxury sedan and a cheaper third-generation vehicleintended for the mass market. By 2020, Tesla estimates the facility will be able to make enough batteries to supply 500,000 vehicles a year.

    The factory, which will employ about 6,500 people, is expected to reduce the per-kilowatt-hour cost of its lithium-ion battery packs by more than 30% by the end of the first year of volume production. It's nothing less than necessary for CEO Elon Musk's bid to make a car 50% cheaper than Tesla's luxury Model S, which starts at $70,000.

厂址选择

    消息公布之后，人们纷纷猜测特斯拉会将工厂设在哪里？它会与哪家电池厂商合作？

    特斯拉在首次通告中称，公司正在评估亚利桑那州、内华达州、新墨西哥州及德克萨斯州的500-1000英亩的厂址。除此之外，公司没有给出更多说明。（针对《财富》杂志的询问，特斯拉发言人帕特里克•琼斯表示不愿透露更多信息。）根据市场调研与咨询公司Navigant Research分析师萨姆•杰夫的说法，特斯拉设立新工厂需要考虑的首要条件是：货运火车。

    “最重要的一点是，新工厂必须建在铁路沿线，”专攻能量储存设备市场的杰夫说。“因为这些蓄电池十分沉重，而特斯拉需要把它们一路运往位于加利福尼亚的汽车制造厂。”

    如果将铁路沿线作为选择厂址的首要条件，那么备选厂址名单也就有了。

    “大家可以看到，联合太平洋铁路直穿厄尔巴索、新墨西哥州、亚利桑那州，再向上直插内华达州，”杰夫说。“再看看特斯拉的费利蒙工厂，这个工厂刚好就设在铁路沿线。”

A possible location

    Since the announcement, speculation has run rampant about where the facility will be located -- and with whom battery manufacturer Tesla will partner.

    In its initial announcement, Tesla said it is evaluating 500- to 1,000-acre sites in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas. But the company has said little else. (Responding to a Fortune inquiry, Tesla spokesman Patrick Jones declined to comment any further.) But according to Navigant Research analyst Sam Jaffe, there's one must-have that Tesla's new plant will need more than any other: a freight train.

    "The single-most important aspect is that it's near a rail line," said Jaffe, who specializes in the energy storage market. "These batteries are very heavy, and they have to ship them all the way to their plant in California."

    Put a rail line toward the top of the factory's basic requirements, and the list of possible locations narrows.

    "If you look at the Union Pacific line, they go right through El Paso, cut through New Mexico, through Arizona, and then up through Nevada," Jaffe said. "And look at their Fremont plant; it's right next to the rail line."