中韩蓄势引爆移动操作系统世界大战

    谷歌公司（Google）的安卓（Android）和苹果公司（Apple）的iOS操作系统的对手如今已经在亚洲出现，意味着全球在移动计算领域的霸权争夺战将随时打响。

    首先出战、意欲撼动市场价值高达3414亿美元的全球手机市场的是“中国操作系统”（China Operating System，以下简称COS），它由中国科学院（Chinese Academy of Sciences）与其私营合作伙伴联彤网络通讯公司（Liantong Network Communications Technology）合作开发。

    第二位抱负同样远大的强劲对手是泰泽（Tizen），它由韩国电子巨头三星公司（Samsung）与数位强大的合作伙伴共同开发，其中包括美国芯片巨头英特尔公司（Intel）、日本富士通公司（Fujitsu）、中国华为公司（Huawei）及欧洲电信巨头沃达丰公司（Vodafone）。三星不仅想让泰泽成为与谷歌的Android及苹果的iOS一样鼎鼎大名的品牌，它还想让这套系统在汽车、智能家电和电视上获得广泛应用。

    COS和泰泽可能都将在今年第二季度正式推出。目前中国电信（China Telecom）和中国移动（China Mobile）正在测试COS平台，而三星近期则在韩国推出了一款搭载泰泽的数码相机。

    美国公司一直在移动通讯所用的软件领域占据着近乎统治性的市场地位。这两支亚洲新军具备对这种统治地位发动正面挑战所需的实力吗？COS和泰泽都拥有对安卓和iOS发起像样打击的潜力——尽管事实上这两个全球霸主牢牢把控着96%的市场份额，地位之巩固似乎无可撼动。

    面对一心挑战的操作系统，谷歌的安卓尤其不堪一击，因为有太多原始设备制造商用了它，一旦有更好的操作系统推出，它们就会把安卓当成烫手山芋扔到一边。

    中国卖得最好的七大智能手机品牌中，有五个是中国自主品牌：联想（Lenovo）、华为、宇龙（Yulong，即酷派手机制造商——译注）、小米（Xiaomi）和中兴（ZTE）。如果这些品牌都从安卓转投COS——比如，中国政府以考虑国家安全的名义说服它们这么做——安卓就有可能在一夜之间被逐出这个全球最大的无线市场之一。

    而征服中国市场仍将是场艰巨的持久战。高德纳公司（Gartner）上海办公室的研究总监桑迪•沈说：“如果政府出面说服，有些厂商可能会生产一两款搭载国产系统的手机。但如果完全采用国产系统，它们就会失去市场份额，也有可能蒙受损失，这也是它们所难以承受的结果。”

    分析师们也对位于上海的联彤网络通讯公司的技术能力表示质疑，正是这家公司领衔开发了基于Linux系统的COS。弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）北京分公司资深分析师吉恩•曹说：“这家公司2012年刚成立，现在总共还不到150人。新的操作系统要提高稳定性还需要很长时间，像安卓这样的系统版本一般也要升级上百次才行。”

    与此同时，三星的战略优势在于，如今市面上搭载安卓系统的智能手机和平板电脑中有63%都是它生产的。如果它决意全力以赴主推泰泽，谷歌一定会失去超过一半的安卓客户。

    位于马萨诸塞州弗雷明汉市的市场调研公司IDC的手机团队研究经理雷蒙•拉马说：“我不认为三星会因为启用泰泽而放弃安卓，因为它的旗舰智能手机盖世（Galaxy）系列几乎就是安卓的代表。如果这些手机换用泰泽或其他操作系统，就会有疏远核心用户的风险。我估计三星以后除了提供安卓系统的手机，还会生产泰泽系统的手机。”

    Rivals to Google's (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS operating systems have emerged in Asia, suggesting that a fierce global war over dominance in mobile computing is imminent.

    The first contender for shaking up the world's $341.4-billion mobile handset market is the China Operating System (COS), developed jointly by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and private-sector partner Liantong Network Communications Technology.

    The second up-and-comer with similarly large ambitions is Tizen, developed by South Korean electronics giant Samsung with a consortium of partners that includes U.S. microchip giant Intel (INTC), Japan's Fujitsu, China's Huawei, and European mobile carrier Vodafone (VOD). Samsung not only wants Tizen to become as big a brand name as Google's Android and Apple's iOS, it also wants to see its software used in cars, smart appliances, and televisions.

    Both COS and Tizen will likely be released in the second quarter; China Telecom and China Mobile are currently testing the COS platform, and Samsung recently launched a Tizen digital camera in South Korea.

    American companies have a near-monopoly over the software that powers mobile communication. Do the two Asian entrants have what it takes to mount a full-frontal assault on their dominance? COS and Tizen have the potential to deliver a serious blow to the fortunes of both Android and iOS -- despite the fact that these two global monsters have a seemingly unshakeable lock on 96% of the market.

    Google's Android is particularly vulnerable to a competing OS because it's used by a long list of original equipment manufacturers who could drop Android like a hot potato if a better OS comes along.

    Consider that five out of the top seven smartphones sold in China are made by Chinese companies: Lenovo, Huawei, Yulong, Xiaomi, and ZTE. If they were all to switch from Android to COS -- say, with a little persuasion from the Chinese government on grounds of national security -- then Android could be shut out of one of the world's biggest wireless markets virtually overnight.

    Still, conquering China will be an uphill battle. "Some of the vendors may do one or two devices if pressured by the government," says Sandy Shen, research director in Gartner's Shanghai office, "but they cannot afford to lose market share or suffer losses only to support the Chinese OS."

    Analysts also question the capabilities of Shanghai-based Liantong Network Communications, which led development of the Linux-based COS. "It was established in 2012 with less than 150 people," says Gene Cao, a senior analyst with Forrester Research in Beijing. "It takes time for a new OS to improve stability, which normally needs hundreds of version updates like Android."

    Meanwhile Samsung's strategic advantage is that fact that it makes 63% of all Android-powered smartphones and tablets on the market today. If it were to put its full weight behind Tizen, Google stands to lose more than half its Android customers.

    "I don't think Samsung will abandon Android in favor of Tizen because its flagship Galaxy smartphones are practically equated with Android," says Ramon Llamas, research manager with IDC's mobile phone team in Framingham, Mass. "To switch them over to Tizen, or any other operating system, risks alienating its core user base. I expect Samsung to offer Tizen-powered smartphones alongside its Android-powered ones."