IBM陷入双重困境

    多年来，IBM在科技巨头中堪称一枝独秀：尽管收入增长迟缓，却仍为投资者所青睐。原因在于，这家公司一直在坚定不移、巧妙高明地一步步提高自己的每股收益数字。但罗睿兰出任CEO两年后，IBM陷入了困境：公司收入持续萎缩的同时，雄心勃勃的每股收益目标也变得难以企及。

    去年，IBM的股价下跌了13%，远远比不上同期标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）19%的涨幅。而之前4年，IBM的表现一直优于标普500指数，涨幅高达126%，跑赢了基准指数标普500的97%涨幅。

    IBM用一份路线图向投资者承诺：到2015年实现每股收益20美元。这是一个了不起的目标，特别是考虑到2002年这家公司的每股收益只有1.81美元。过去IBM也设定过类似的目标：上一份路线图承诺到2010年实现每股收益10美元的目标，结果提前一年就实现了目标。

    但这一次，有些人开始担忧IBM打算如何实现新的目标。这其中甚至包括IBM自己。IBM上周发布了年度报告，其中，罗睿兰在致股东信中写到：“公司表现未能达到我们的预期”，2013年收入和营运利润双双下滑。但IBM下定决心，采用一切可能的方式实现每股收益20美元的目标。

    部分分析师表示，IBM公司有很多手段可以推高每股收益，包括激进的回购和裁员，因此路线图其实无关紧要。例如，上一季度IBM的收益之所以超出华尔街预期，很大程度上是由于税额较低。今年，IBM将服务器业务以23亿美元的价格卖给了联想（Lenovo），也将给它的业绩带来帮助。

    鉴于所有这些手段和工具，华尔街预计IBM有望能实现目标。但所有这些手段都忽视了损益表中的另一项重要内容——收入。过去7个季度，IBM收入一直在持续萎缩。分析师预计，2014年全年IBM的收入将继续下降。

    IBM的收入来自从软件到硬件、再从咨询到外包IT服务的众多部门。过去2年，软件是IBM唯一一个收入持续增长的部门。IBM最大的业务部门——全球IT服务去年收入减少了4.3%。收入下降最大的是服务器、存储等硬件业务：去年下降了18%，再之前的2012年下降了8%。

    硬件收入下降已经呈现出加速的迹象：去年第四季度下降了26%。据市场调研公司盖特纳（Gartner）估计，去年第四季度全球服务器销售下降了6.6%。尽管市场萎缩，IBM的市场占有率仍从上年同期的34.5%降至了26.5%。

    For years, IBM (IBM) was that rare tech giant: beloved by investors despite sluggish revenue growth. That was because the company was as determined as it was clever about ratcheting up its earnings-per-share figure. But two years into Ginni Rometty's tenure as CEO, the company faces a double dilemma: Revenue is shrinking while the company is having trouble hitting its ambitious EPS targets.

    IBM's stock is down 13% over the past year, while the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 19% in the same period. Over the previous four years, IBM had been outperforming the S&P 500, rising 126% to the benchmark index's 97%.

    IBM made a pledge to investors in the guise of a roadmap: generate $20 in earnings per share by 2015. It's an impressive goal, especially when you consider that the company's EPS in 2002 was only $1.81 a share. IBM has set out similar goals -- an earlier roadmap vowed $10 EPS by 2010 and reached that figure a year early.

    But this time some are wondering how the company will get there. Including IBM. In the company's annual report released this week, Rometty wrote in a letter to shareholders that "our performance did not meet our expectations" as revenue and operating income both declined in 2013. Yet IBM is determined to reach that $20 EPS goal in any way it can.

    Some analysts have suggested the company has so many levers to pull in driving earnings per share higher, like aggressive buybacks and layoffs, that the roadmap has lost relevance. IBM beat the Street's profit forecast last quarter, for example, largely because of lower taxes. This year, it will be aided by the $2.3 billion sale of its server business to Lenovo.

    With all those levers, Wall Street is expecting IBM to reach the targets. But all while overlooking another important line on the income statement: revenue. IBM's revenue has been shrinking for the past seven quarters. Analysts expect the company to see revenue decline again throughout 2014.

    IBM's revenue comes from a broad array of divisions, from software to hardware to consulting to outsourced IT services. Over the past two years, software has been the only division to see consistent growth. The largest segment, global IT services, fell 4.3% last year. The biggest decline came from hardware like servers and storage: down 18% last year after falling 8% in 2012.

    The revenue decline in hardware has been showing signs of accelerating, falling 26% in the fourth quarter. Gartner estimates that sales of servers around the world fell 6.6% in the quarter. Even within that shrinking market, IBM saw its share slide to 26.5% from 34.5% in the year-ago quarter.