花旗为什么没能通过美联储压力测试

    周三，美联储（Federal Reserve）批准了美国30大银行中25家的资本计划，这是后者按要求进行的年度压力测试进入最后环节后的步骤之一。

    在资本计划遭到否决的银行中，最引人注意的要属花旗集团（Citigroup）。美联储表示，让它感到担心的是花旗无法预计自己在经济极度滑坡时可能蒙受多少损失。五家银行的资本计划被否决，其中有三家是外国银行的美国子公司。Zions Bancorp的资本计划也遭到了美联储否决，而且也没能通过上周的第一阶段压力测试。

    资本计划被否定后，花旗和其他四家银行明年将不能提高分红或股票回购水平，而这一直是股东殷切期盼的东西。只是就外国银行而言，美联储执行这条禁令的能力可能有限。

    此外，上周美联储私下要求美国银行（Bank of America）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）重新提交资本计划。美联储称，如果不重新提交这项计划，这两家银行本周也将无法通过压力测试。按照它们原先提交的计划，如果经济再次极度衰退，分红或股票回购方案将使美银和高盛的一项关键财务指标降到美联储要求的最低水平以下。两家银行都在重新提交的资本计划中下调了明年用于分红和回购股票的资金规模，从而得到了美联储的批准。

    不过，本次压力测试再次表明，这些美国一线银行的情况远好于金融危机爆发之际，甚至好于一年前。大多数银行向美联储提交的计划都增加了分红或股票回购规模。这两种行为一般都会推动股价上涨，而且会让投资者欢欣鼓舞，但它们同时也会消耗弥补贷款或投资损失所需的资金。以前银行可以在不怎么受监管的情况下提高分红或股票回购水平。但金融危机爆发以来，它们每年都必须将分红或股票回购计划提交给美联储审批。

    大家都说，这几年美联储的压力测试越来越严格。几个月来，美联储一直在告诫参与测试的银行，后者的资本计划会不会遭到否决不光取决于它们能否应付金融危机，还取决于它们针对金融危机所制定的计划有多完善。看来花旗就是没有达到后一项要求。

    这不是花旗第一次在美联储的压力测试中艰难挣扎。两年前，美联储也曾像今年这样禁止花旗提高分红或股票回购水平。但去年花旗在压力测试中全面达标，而且完成测试后它的资本充足率在大型银行中排名第一。今年美联储表示，虽然花旗有望在经济急剧滑坡时幸存下来，但似乎无法“预测自己的很大一部分全球业务在面临压力时的收入和损失”。

    此外，美联储还指出，一段时间以来花旗一直知道美联储担心哪些问题，但一直没有采取任何措施来加以改善。举例来说，花旗上周估算，如果出现美联储假设的极为不利的经济环境，它的损失将接近240亿美元。美联储则认为，花旗的损失可能会高达460亿美元。

    首席执行官迈克尔•考伯特在花旗的公告中表示，他对美联储的决定“深感”失望。考伯特说：“新的资本行为所代表的资本回报率水平适中，而且仍能让花旗达到所要求的量化限定值。”花旗提出的计划是明年再投入52亿美元资金回购股票，并将季度分红水平提高到每股0.05美元。美联储则将它的季度分红和股票回购水平分别限定在0.01美元和12亿美元。

    The Federal Reserve approved the capital plans of 25 of the nation's 30 largest banks on Wednesday as part of the final leg of their annual required stress tests.

    Citigroup was the most notable bank among those that had their capital plans rejected. The Fed said it was troubled by Citi's inability to predict how much it could lose in an severe economic downturn. Three of the five other rejected plans were of U.S. subsidiaries of foreign banks. Zions Bancorp (ZION), which also failed the first part of the Fed's stress test process last week, also had its capital plan rejected.

    The rejections ban Citi and the four other banks from increasing their dividends or share repurchases for the next year, something shareholders have been eagerly anticipating. Although when it comes to the foreign banks, the Fed may have a limited ability to enforce that restriction.

    In addition, Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) were confidentially asked last week to resubmit their capital plans. The Fed said those banks would also have failed this week's stress test had they not resubmitted their plans. In both of those cases, the banks had proposed dividends or share repurchases that would have put them in jeopardy of falling below the minimum the Fed requires on a key financial ratio had the economy entered another severe recession. Both of the banks' resubmitted plans, which cut back how much money they would spend on dividends and share buybacks in the next year, were approved by the Fed.

    Still, the stress test showed, once again, that the nation's largest banks are in far better shape than they were going into the financial crisis, and better than they were even a year ago. Most banks submitted a plan to the Fed to increase their dividend or buy back shares. Both moves generally boost share prices and are cheered by investors but can deplete needed capital to cover losses from loans or bad investments. Banks used to be able to up these payouts without much oversight. But since the financial crisis, banks now have to get these distribution plans approved by the Fed each year.

    By all accounts, the Fed has made its stress tests more strict over the years. For the past few months, the Fed has warned banks that it might reject their capital plans not only on whether they could weather a financial crisis, but how well they did at planning for one. The later part is where it appears Citi failed.

    It's not the first time Citi (C) has struggled with the Fed's stress test. Two years ago, the bank was similarly barred from increasing its dividends or buying back shares. Last year, though, Citi came out of the stress test with a clean bill of health, and the highest post-stress test capital ratio of any of the big banks. This year, the Fed said that while Citi would likely be able to survive a severe downturn, the bank seemed unable to "project revenue and losses under a stressful scenario for a material portion of the bank's global operations."

    What's more, the Fed said Citi had been aware of the Fed's concerns for sometime, but had done nothing to improve them. Last week, for instance, Citi estimated it would have nearly $24 in losses in the Fed severe adverse economic scenario. The Fed said Citi could lose as much as $46 billion.

    In a statement, Citi's CEO Michael Corbat said he was "deeply" disappointed by the Fed's decision. "The additional capital actions represented a modest level of capital return and still allowed Citi to exceed the required threshold on a quantitative basis," said Corbat. Citi had asked to be able to spend an additional $5.2 billion on share repurchases in the next year, and up its quarterly dividend to $0.05 a share. Instead, the company's dividend will be stuck at $0.01. Share buybacks will be limited to $1.2 billion.