可穿戴设备市场的蛋糕能做到多大

    移动设备将不再只是装在提包或衣服口袋里的玩意儿了。很快它们将越来越多地出现在你的手腕上，或是变成眼镜，甚至是衣服的一部分。虽然可穿戴设备目前仍然处于襁褓之中，但它的腾飞已经蓄势待发。根据瞻博研究公司（Juniper Research）的一份报告，2014年可穿戴设备的市值将超过15亿美元，比去年翻一番。

    与其它消费电子产品不同的是，可穿戴设备市场是由很多小的细分市场构成的，目前消费者用得最多的是健身智能腕带。不过根据市调机构Canalys的预测，健身智能腕带市场正在迅速增长，今年健身智能腕带的销量可能将超过1700万个。到2015年，这个数字将达到2300万，2017年将超过4500万。

    健身和保健目前仍然是可穿戴技术最主要的应用领域。

    运动与健身科技峰会（Sports & Fitness Tech Summit）的发起人朱莉•希尔维斯特在今年洛杉矶的国际消费电子展（International Consumer Electronics Show）上指出：“它之所仍然处于主导地位，主要是由于健身和保健是我们最关心的话题。人们更倾向于接受计步器和心率监视器进入他们的日常生活，成为生活中的日常用品。”

    希尔维斯特表示，这种更加时尚的，或者说更加“隐型”的计步器和心率监视器，将从早期采用者逐步扩展到那些“既不追逐潮流、也不专业，但是从预防疾病的角度关心健身和心率问题”的一般消费者。

    可穿戴设备的电池市场也将迎来一波显著的增长。根据HIS科技公司的预测，到2018年，全球可穿戴电子设备的电池市场市值将达到7700万美元，而今年这个市场的市值仅仅有600万美元。

    这个仍处于襁褓中的市场的主力军是数不清的创业公司，比如Pebble、Fibit和Jawbone等等。但是包括苹果（Apple）、三星（Samsung）和谷歌（Google）在内的不少科技巨头已经开始进场。英特尔（Intel）上周以1亿美元的价格收购了智能手表制造商Basis Science，也表明了它继续进军可穿戴市场的兴趣。

    虽然谷歌眼镜（也就是传说中在佩戴者眼前有一块邮票大小的显示屏的“智能”眼镜）仍然受限于易用性问题，但谷歌最近与专业眼镜制造公司陆逊梯卡集团（Luxottica）的合作可能会改变这种局面。另外谷歌还发布了Android Wear系统，也就是Android系统的可穿戴版本，采用这个系统的硬件厂商包括很快将成为谷歌“弃儿”的摩托罗拉，以及LG、三星、华硕（Asus）、博通（Broadcom）、Fossil、HTC、英特尔（Intel）、联发科技（Mediatek）、MIPS和高通（Qualcomm）等。NextMarket Insight公司首席分析师迈克尔•沃尔夫说：“今年可穿戴设备的催化剂可能就是Android Wear，它是针对智能手表专门优化的系统。现在的一个大问题是：苹果会作何反应？”

    Mobile gadgets won't just be tucked into your purse or your pocket. Soon, they'll increasingly be on your wrist, as part of your glasses and even in your clothing. While still in its infancy, wearable technology is poised to take off. The market for the wearables business is expected to exceed $1.5 billion in 2014, double its value last year, according to a report from Juniper Research.

    Unlike other parts of the consumer electronics market, the wearables category is made up of many small segments, with wearable fitness bands currently leading the way in consumer adoption. But the wearable band market is growing fast, according to a forecast by Canalys, and more than 17 million wearable fitness bands will be sold this year. That figure is estimated to reach 23 million by 2015 and more than 45 million by 2017.

    Fitness and health remains the leading application for wearable technology.

    "It is still dominant because [fitness and health] is what we are most concerned with," said Julie Sylvester, producer of the Sports & Fitness Tech Summit at the annual International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. "People are much more likely to incorporate trackers and heart rate monitors into their daily routine and accessories."

    The more fashionable -- or conversely, the more "invisible" -- trackers and monitors will expand beyond the early adopters, Sylvester said, to the general consumer "who is not adopting the newest trend or is interested from a professional level, but is actually interested in monitoring their health and fitness from a preventive state of mind or if there is a specific health concern."

    The market for the power behind all these devices will also see a significant boost. Worldwide revenue for wearable electronics batteries will reach $77 million by 2018, according to IHS Technology, up from just $6 million this year.

    The market in its infancy has been dominated by numerous startups, including Pebble, Fitbit, and Jawbone. But a number of tech giants -- including Apple (AAPL), Samsung, and Google (GOOG) -- are just now entering the space. And Intel's (INTC) acquisition of smartwatch maker Basis Science last week -- for a reported $100 million -- demonstrates continued interest in the wearables market.

    Though Google Glass -- the "smart" glasses that place a postage-size screen in the line of sight of the wearer -- is still limited in its availability, a recent deal with Luxottica stands to change that. Google has also introduced Android Wear, a version of its popular mobile operating system that can be licensed by a number of hardware partners, including Google's soon-to-be former subsidiary Motorola and partner LG but also Samsung, Asus, Broadcom, Fossil, HTC, Intel, Mediatek, MIPS, and Qualcomm (QCOM).