聪明人这样投资科技股：不要看当前业绩，看潜力

    聪明的科技投资者要的是潜力，而不是业绩。他们锁定的公司会用科技开拓出新的市场，并在其中占据主导地位；此外，这些新市场还具有极大的增长潜力。出现这种情况的原因是科技投资精英掌握着两条别人没有的思路。第一条是，行将消亡的行业不会出现传奇性公司。第二条是，科技领域赢家通吃，谷歌（Google）、Facebook和客户关系管理解决方案供应商Salesforce.com这样主导特定市场的公司经常能逐步占据高达50%的市场份额。

    大多数金融信息和分析都包含了大量历史数据——收入、销售额、未完成订单、利润率、盈利等。这种依托于数据表格的历史数据分析通常空洞无物。

    具有传奇色彩的投资者着眼的是未来。他们研究的是潜力。把注意力集中在潜力方面要比分析现有格局困难得多。衡量一个成熟行业——比如搜索引擎广告——的市场相对容易；而预测一个新兴行业——比如“内容营销”——则需要从非传统角度进行考察，同时在观念上实现突破。

    红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）合伙人吉姆•戈茨说：“要在投资时做出聪明的选择，就要知道某个市场的潜在规模和重要性。我们寻找的是以使命为导向的创始人。他们既能建立一家伟大的公司，又能开创一个伟大的领域。”他确实了解这一点。戈茨对免费手机短信工具WhatsApp的早期投资最终变成了一笔享誉全球的交易，价值达到190亿美元。Facebook买下的不光是WhatsApp的收入、技术，也不光是它的4.5亿活跃用户。Facebook要的是后者在移动短信领域的领先位置。这个新市场具有战略意义，而且正在飞速增长。据报道，这是风投行业历史上规模最大的收购。

    所有科技市场都会逐渐萎缩。要了解成熟公司的增长前景，首先就要看看它们是否遭到了侵蚀以及侵蚀情况如何。

    计算机制造商戴尔（Dell）就面临着这样的问题。服务器、台式机和笔记本电脑的需求增长都趋于停滞。在云技术、智能手机和平板电脑等新市场处于领先位置的公司正在扼杀前者的未来。情形就跟个人电脑彻底击败打字机如出一辙。这就是戴尔转向软件和服务的原因。他们正在设法获得新的潜力，因为他们目前所在的领域正在遭到侵蚀。

    通常，各家公司都在现有行业争夺市场份额。想想可口可乐（Coca-Cola）和百事可口（Pepsi）、或者8分钟腹肌训练法和7分钟腹肌训练法之争就会明白这一点。随着新科技开创出新市场，消费者口袋里的钱也会从旧的市场流向新的市场。

    SAP和甲骨文公司（Oracle）这些当前行业主导者都在关注着这样的“恶魔”。人力资源软件开发商Workday去年的收入增长了71%以上，Salesforce.com现在的规模已经达到40亿美元，增长了30%以上，市值为340亿美元。此外，为人们提供数据备份、同步和共享解决方案的Dropbox、提供在线分享和内容管理服务的Box、采用软件即服务模式的软件服务商ServiceNow、云软件开发商Netsuite以及其他许多公司都在不断地增长。这些新兴企业都没有用传统手段开展竞争。它们促使消费者的资金从本地软件转向新型云软件。这种变化对本地软件来说就像断了氧气，所有人都会窒息。

    这种风险是科技公司面临的最大威胁。历史情况表明，行动迟缓会迅速“杀死”一家公司。要想知道原先的行业领头羊能否继续增长，诀窍就在于观察它们遭到的侵蚀有多严重，以及它们在发掘新的潜力方面有多迅速。

    大型企业的股价总是很高，这是因为潜力加执行就等于溢价。这也解释了收入规模为750亿美元的亚马逊（Amazon）为什么拥有1550亿美元的市值，而收入4760亿美元的沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）的市值为2450亿美元。难题在于处于行业主导地位的高增长公司应该具有什么样的溢价水平？这个问题的答案取决于你认为某家公司的策略通过本领域的潜力能赚到多少钱。

    特斯拉汽车（Tesla）比福特汽车（Ford Motor）晚诞生了100年。今天，特斯拉汽车的市值达到了260亿美元，而福特汽车的市值为610亿美元。你们认为电动汽车行业有多大的潜力呢？清洁科技信息网站CleanTechnica董事扎卡里•认为，目前这个行业的增长速度为300%。

    富国证券（Wells Fargo Securities）董事总经理詹森•梅纳德说：“如果这个领域够大，而且其中的王者有足够的统治力，现在的估值多少基本上都没有关系。做出投资决策的关键在于了解这个领域的潜力，以及这个王者制定规则、发展以及长久主导的能力。”

    随着科技创新速度的加快，新行业出现的速度也在加快。人们也因此可能更快地赚钱或者赔钱。要想在科技领域赚钱，行业分析就应该像财务分析一样具有战略地位。（财富中文网）

    本文三位作者作为合伙人联合创立了咨询公司Play Bigger Advisors。这家公司设在旧金山，为科技公司高管在建立市场导向型企业方面提供培训。

    译者：Charlie

    Savvy technology investors seek potential, not performance. They identify companies leveraging technology to build and dominate new market sectors that show promise for significant growth. Because elite tech investors know two things that others don't: First, there is no such thing as a legendary company in a dying sector. And second, the technology business is a winner-take-all game, where companies that dominate specific markets in tech, such as Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and Salesforce.com (CRM), often gain upwards of 50% market share over time.

    Most financial news and analysis are a blizzard of historical numbers: Revenue, sales, backlog, margins, earnings, etc. This spreadsheet-based, historical analysis is often void of context.

    Legendary investors look to the future. They study the potential. Wrapping your brain around potential is a lot harder than analyzing an existing space. A mature sector like search advertising has a market that is relatively easy to measure. But, making a bet on an emerging space like "content marketing" requires non-traditional examination and a leap of faith.

    "Smart investment choices require understanding the potential size and importance of the market category. We seek mission-driven founders who can build a great company and category at the same time," Sequoia Capital partner Jim Goetz says. He should know. His early investment in WhatsApp turned into the $19 billion transaction heard around the world. Facebook didn't just buy WhatsApp's revenue, technology or its 450 million active users. Facebook wanted WhatsApp's leading position in a strategic, massively growing new market called mobile messaging. The transaction was reported to be the largest acquisition in venture history.

    All technology markets fall off over time. Understanding the growth prospects for mature companies starts with examining how much, if any, erosion they face.

    This is Dell's problem. Server, desktop and laptop demand is stagnating. The companies leading new markets for cloud, smartphone and tablet are neutering their future. The same way the personal computer crushed the typewriter. That's why Dell is pivoting to software and services. They are trying to access new potential because their current categories are eroding.

    Traditionally, companies fight for market share within existing sectors. Think Coke vs. Pepsi or Eight Minute Abs vs. Seven Minute Abs. As new technologies create new markets, customers shift dollars from the old to the new.

    Firms that currently dominate their sectors, such as SAP (SAP) and Oracle (ORCL), are staring at this demon now. Workday grew revenue over 71% last year, Salesforce.com (CRM) is now a $4 billion company, growing at over 30% with a market cap of $34 billion. Additionally, Dropbox, Box, ServiceNow, Netsuite and many more, continue to ascend. These new players are not competing with conventional weapons. They are driving customer spending away from on-premise apps to new cloud apps. As oxygen leaves the space, everyone suffocates.

    This type of risk is the biggest threat technology companies face. As history shows, slow kills companies fast. The trick to understanding if the old leaders can grow again is examining how much erosion they face and how quickly they are pursuing new potential.

    Big players always have outsized stock prices because potential plus execution equals a premium. This explains why Amazon's (AMZN) market cap is $155 billion with $75 billion in revenue, while Wal-Mart (WMT) is worth $245 billion on $476 billion in revenue. The tough question is what premium should high-growth companies that dominate their sectors have? Answering the question lies in what you believe about a given company's strategy to make money off of their category potential.

    Tesla (TSLA) was founded 100 years after the Ford Motor Company (F). Today, Tesla has a market cap of $26 billion vs. Ford at $61 billion. How much potential do you think the electric car space has? According to Zachary Shahan, director of CleanTechnica, it's growing at 300%.

    "If the category is big enough and the category king is dominant enough, current valuation is almost irrelevant. The key to making investment decisions is understanding category potential and the ability of the category king to define, develop and dominate the space over time," says Jason Maynard, managing director at Wells Fargo Securities.

    As technology innovation accelerates so do new sectors. That opens new opportunities to make and lose money more quickly. Sector analysis should be as strategic as financial analysis if you want to make money in tech.

    Christopher Lochhead, Dave Peterson, and Al Ramadan are co-founding partners at Play Bigger Advisors, a San Francisco-based firm that coaches technology executives to build market-leading companies.