中国敲响全球贸易滑坡警钟

    今年3月份，中国的进出口情况急转直下。同时，在贸易方面走势迟缓的不光是中国经济。

    今年3月份，中国出口额同比下降了6.6%，去年12月份的出口额则同比持平。这个数字低于许多经济学家预测的上涨4%。不可否认，中国经济数据会出现波动，而且很难解读。有人认为，出口下降的原因是中国企业通过出口规避资本管制的行为受到了整顿。《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）报道，高盛（Goldman Sachs）亚洲经济学家安德鲁•蒂尔顿称之为中国出口下降的“主要原因”。

    最初，亚洲各个市场似乎确实没有受到这些数字的影响，人们也许接受了这样一种解释，即出口额下降是中国经济数据质量较差所致。但全球经济与市场分析机构高频经济（High Frequency Economics）首席经济学家卡尔•温伯格却没有这么乐观。

    温伯格认为，已经有一连串令人担心的迹象表明全球贸易正在急剧滑坡，中国的数据只是最新的一项证据。他指出，下图表明“全球工业产出和全球贸易量显然有着历史性关联”，而从图中可以看出，贸易数据出现了异常。

    Chinese imports and exports fell off a cliff in March, and the Chinese economy isn't the only one dealing with lagging trade figures.

    Chinese exports plunged by 6.6% over the last 12 months ending in March, and they were flat in the year ended in December. This was well below the 4% increase in exports many economists had expected. True, data from China can be volatile and difficult to interpret. Some are attributing the drop to a crackdown on Chinese companies using exports as a means to evade capital controls. Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Asia, called this the "main reason" for the plunge, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Markets in Asia did seem to shrug off the report initially, perhaps buying the explanation that the dip was due to bad Chinese data, but Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, isn't so optimistic.

    He argues that the data out of China is just the latest in a series of worrying signs that global trade is slumping. Weinberg points to an anomaly in trade data, pictured in the chart below, which shows "an obvious historic correlation between global industrial output and the volume of world trade." 

    问题在于，虽然出口增长率还没有真正恢复到金融危机前的水平，工业产值的表现却一直较为强劲。这种现象并不十分合理，原因是，要继续经济活动，制造商总得找到地方把产品卖出去。温伯格写道：“这种情况意味着，我们只能预计这个异常现象将出现逆转，而且我们担心实现的途径是放慢生产速度。”

    换句话说，上图可能预示着工业产值即将暴跌，而上周四公布的中国贸易数据只是又一次提醒人们，这种情况很快就会出现。

    那么，还有哪些地区的贸易数据表现欠佳呢？它们大多数都在欧洲，英国和法国本周公布的出口数据都令人失望。表现出众的主要是德国——最近公布的德国出口额比上年同期增长了4.6%。但这可能恰恰表明，欧洲经济在获得动力的过程中并没有实现再平衡。也就是说，欧洲依然没能摆脱对德国出口的过度依赖。

    贸易滑坡时到底应该怎么办？温伯格的建议是施加刺激，他写到：

    应对政策很简单，那就是促进经济增长。增长之中的经济会更多地进口，从而扩大其他经济体的出口额。就是这么简单。然而，只要全世界大部分地区的财政政策仍致力于紧缩，只要这些地区的货币政策继续紧缩银根，全球需求就会处于低迷状态，贸易就不会欣欣向荣。

    当然，说着容易做着难。英国和法国都在政府债务的重压之下挣扎。同时，中国看起来正在推动让经济更加开放和自由的计划，而这就意味着中国政府不能毫无顾忌地采用以往那些可能导致不稳定因素的的常用刺激措施，比如货币贬值和大量发行货币。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    The problem is, while export growth hasn't really recovered to pre-crisis levels, industrial production has somehow stayed strong. This doesn't make a lot of sense, as producers need to sell their products somewhere in order to keep up economic activity. "That means we have to expect the anomaly to reverse, and we are worried that it will happen through a retracement of the pace of production," Weinberg writes.

    In other words, the above chart could be a sign that industrial production is about to fall off a cliff, and the data out of China on Thursday is just another warning sign that this will happen soon.

    So where else is trade suffering? Mostly in Europe, where both Britain and France announced disappointing export figures this week. The main outlier is Germany, which recently reported a 4.6% year-over-year growth in exports. But this might simply be a sign that Europe is failing to rebalance its own economy -- away from an over-reliance on German exports -- as the European economy gains strength.

    What to do about this slumping trade? Weinberg suggests stimulus, writing

    The policy response is simple: Boost economic growth. Growing economies import more, boosting the exports of other economies. It's just that simple. As long as fiscal policy in much of the world remains committed to austerity and monetary policy remains tapped out, global demand will be weak and trade will not flourish.

    That's easier said than done, of course. Britain and France are both struggling under large amounts of government debt. Meanwhile, China appears to be moving forward with plans to make its economy more open and liberal, which means it won't be able to resort to its usual stimulative tactics like currency depreciation and pumping cheap money into its economy without facing destabilizing consequences.