中国迎来页岩气开发热潮

    一年多来，中国到2015年通过水力压裂法发现65亿立方米天然气的目标一直像是白日做梦。这个目标是在2012年公布的，中国政府当时还公布了一个更雄心勃勃的目标，即到2020年生产至少600亿立方米天然气。压裂法是通过将水和化学物质猛压入岩层释放出气藏，是一种存在争议的技术。中国还没有真正掌握压裂法，怎样才能在几年时间里就要从零开始实现这样的高速增长？

    因此分析人士对中国的这一宏伟计划一直不以为然。

    上个月月末，情况突然峰回路转。当时，国有油气巨头中国石化公司（Sinopec，简称“中石化”）宣布它位于四川省境内的涪陵页岩气田实现了“重大突破”。之后，所有人都改变了看法。中石化和另一家国有油气巨头中国石油天然气集团公司（CNPC，简称“中石油”）控制着中国75%的页岩气资源。前者表示，到2015年它凭借涪陵气田能生产50亿立方米天然气，几乎靠它一家的力量就能实现中国全国的生产目标。中石化还表示，到2017年它在中国的首个大型页岩气田将生产100亿立方米天然气，而且目前还在大力开发更多页岩气资源。这家公司总裁还告诉媒体记者，中石化出售旗下加油站业务的股份，用这些收入来为开发更多页岩气提供资金支持。

    要不是中国政府改变了支持页岩气资源开采的激励政策，可能就不会有涪陵气田这个重大发现。中国国土资源部（Ministry of Land and Resources）估计，中国的页岩气资源储量居全球首位，规模比美国还高三分之一。更重要的是，中国政府将支付给中石化及其它公司新开采天然气供应的价格提高了40%，同时将未来的价格增长与全球油价挂钩。中国城市非居民用户的天然气价格已上涨了15%。位于香港的龙洲经讯公司（GavekalDragonomics）能源分析师奈特•塔普林称，现在将涪陵的天然气输往上海这样的东部市场已经有利可图。而仅仅几年前这还是一桩赔本买卖。

    另一项重大的政府改革是由国家能源局（National Energy Administration）主导的。能源局表示，所有天然气管道都将向第三方开采公司开放，也就是目前在美国占主导地位的小企业。以前，中国那些规模较小的开采公司要将气从开采点运出去时，运输问题得不到保障。中国石油公司（PetroChina）的母公司中国石油天然气集团掌握着全国80%天然气管道的运营权，以前它不会允许其他公司利用自己的网络。即使中石化和中石油仍然掌握着中国四分之三的页岩气资源，至少现在更多小公司可以开发剩下的25%储量，也就离销售它们自己开发的天然气更近了一步。

    目前中国的政治形势也鼓励页岩气水力压裂开发。中石化的老对手中石油一度主导了中国传统天然气的生产，占据了约75%的市场份额。它没有多少理由要推动非传统的页岩气开发。但以习近平和李克强为核心的新一届中国领导人在席卷全国的反腐运动中查处了中石油的一批高管，从而动摇了它的市场地位。由于中石油的影响力已经被削弱，这家公司现在不太可能再反对政府的水力压裂开发目标。

    目前看来中石化是最大的赢家。它正在涪陵气田附近修建液化天然气工厂，计划将页岩气投放到液化天然气市场。目前，这个市场的燃气价格不受政府管制，因此可以卖出更高价格。石化市场信息咨询企业安迅思公司（ICIS）广州分公司副总裁廖纳（音译）称：“页岩气的生产规模还赶不上天然气，一开始它可能会销往液化天然气市场。”

    从更长期来看，中石油和各大跨国企业将帮助中国充分开发中国的页岩气储量。壳牌公司（Shell）、雪佛龙公司（Chevron）和康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）都在勘探中国大量的页岩气田。而美国能源信息管理局（U.S. Energy Information Administration）的预测数字比中国同行更为大胆，据它估算，中国页岩气储量比美国高出68%。

    不过中国仍然面临着大量的挑战：中国的地势远比美国复杂多样，页岩气埋藏深度有时候是美国的两倍，因此开采起来成本更高；而水力压裂法需要大量水，对中国业已稀缺的水资源来说更是雪上加霜；同时中国也缺乏开采必需的技术。不过中石化的最新产量预测让人无法否认，中国在充分开采页岩气储量的道路上又更进了一步。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    For more than a year, China's goal of recovering 6.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2015 via hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, seemed like a pipe dream. The figure was announced in 2012, along with the government's even more ambitious goal of producing at least 60 billion cubic meters by 2020. How do you grow that fast in just a few years from basically zero, especially when your country is new to fracking, a controversial method of drilling that blasts water and chemicals into rock formations to release trapped gas?

    Analysts had been dismissive.

    Until late last month. That's when everyone's outlook changed after the state oil and gas giant Sinopec (SNP) announced "significant breakthroughs" at its Fuling shale gas field in the country's southern Sichuan province. Sinopec, which along with China's other state-owned oil and gas giant CNPC controls 75% of shale fields in China, said it will almost single-handedly meet China's goal and produce 5 billion cubic meters by 2015 at Fuling. Sinopec said by 2017 it would produce 10 billion cubic meters at China's first big shale gas field and that the company was pushing hard for more shale gas discoveries. Its chairman told reporters that Sinopec would use proceeds from selling a stake in its gas station business to fund more shale fields.

    The Fuling discovery might not have happened if the Chinese government hadn't changed the incentives for drilling shale gas reserves, which the country's Ministry of Land and Resources estimates to be the world's largest and a third-larger in size than America's. Most importantly the government raised the prices paid to Sinopec and others for new gas supply by up to 40% and tied future increases to global oil prices. The price of natural gas for nonresidential users in Chinese cities rose by 15%. Fuling's gas headed to China's eastern markets like Shanghai now has a profit margin, says Nate Taplin, energy analyst at GavekalDragonomics in Hong Kong. Just a couple years ago it was a money-losing proposition.

    The other important government reform came via China's National Energy Administration, which said that all natural gas pipelines would be made open to third-party drillers, the small operators that dominate the landscape in the U.S. Before, smaller Chinese drillers weren't guaranteed transport for their gas from drilling sites. CNPC, the parent of PetroChina, operates 80% of the natural gas pipelines, and it wasn't handing out invitations to use its network. Even though Sinopec and CNPC still control three-quarters of the country's shale blocks, at least now the companies bidding on the other 25% of reserves are one step closer to getting their gas to market.

    The political winds have also encouraged shale gas fracking in China. Sinopec's rival CNPC dominates production of conventional natural gas in the country, with around 75% market share. It didn't have many reasons to push into unconventional shale gas plays. But China's new administration lead by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang has diminished CNPC's stature after targeting top CNPC officials in a nationwide corruption crackdown -- most notably the former CNPC chairman and minister of public security Zhou Yongkang. Because of its reduced influence, CNPC is now less likely to push back against the government's fracking goals.

    Sinopec looks like the biggest winner for now. It's building a liquefied natural gas plant near its Fuling field to move shale gas into the LNG market, where prices are unregulated by the government and can trade higher. "For shale gas, since production is not as big as natural gas, in the beginning it will probably be traded in LNG market," says Liao Na, a vice president at energy consultant ICIS in Guangzhou.

    Over the longer-term, CNPC and multinationals will all help China realize its shale gas potential. Shell (RDSA), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are circling China's massive shale fields. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is more aggressive than its Chinese counterpart, estimating that China's shale gas reserves are 68% higher than those in the U.S.

    Challenges for China remain: The country's topography is more problematic than America's, and deposits are sometimes buried twice as deep in the ground, making shale gas costlier to excavate; the water-intensive fracking process is a drain on China's already scarce resources; and the country still lacks some necessary technology. But Sinopec's new forecast makes it undeniable that China is moving closer to realizing its shale gas potential.