新掌门光靠iPad版Office还救不了微软

    当一位CEO从性情急躁、口若悬河如史蒂夫•鲍尔默这样的领导者手中接过权杖之后，他如何才能赢得关注？对于萨蒂亚•纳德拉来说（他似乎不大可能像他的前任那样在舞台上汗流浃背地演出），答案在于一个大胆的战略姿态：让微软公司(Microsoft)的旗舰产品Office软件进入iPad平台。

    作为微软的摇钱树，Office早就被挡在了平板电脑市场的绿色牧场之外。一些人认为，这正是微软打破数十年来不生产个人电脑设备的传统，开始制造Surface平板电脑的原因所在。这项代价高昂的实验目前还没有产生预期效果。尽管Surface的销量一直在增长，但它2%的市场份额依然落后于三星(Samsung)平板电脑和亚马逊(Amazon)的Kindle Fire，当然更无法跟iPad相提并论了。

    鉴于纳德拉正在从鲍尔默接过权杖，微软有机会开启一个新时代。它将有别于以业绩温和增长、进军企业级软件为特征的鲍尔默时期，也将更进一步远离微软以铁拳统治PC软件领域的盖茨时期。纳德拉治下的微软似乎是一家图谋参与市场竞争、而不是控制市场的公司。

    纳德拉的工作经验所涉及的正是那些拥有增长前景的技术——云计算，多平台，移动性，大数据。而这些技术恰恰处在微软辉煌历史所依托的专有软件的对立面。这就是为什么微软宣布推出iPad版Office 365软件这个消息为什么如此引人瞩目。这个举措的看点倒不是两大宿敌即将共享收入，而是微软冒着伤害自身移动平台的风险，扩展至另一个更大的平台。微软正在呈现出前所未有的开放性。

    此外，这也是纳德拉首次郑重其事地公开亮相，既是一个产品的发布会，又是首席执行官粉墨登场。这样做存在风险：它或许会让外界觉得，迫于压力，微软不得不在老对手的设备上运行自己最倚赖的产品，同时还需要拿出30%的收入购买这项特权。换句话说就是，微软正在屈从于苹果(Apple)。但恰恰相反，纳德拉正在被越来越多地视为一位最终将引领这家软件业巨擘走出PC时代，进入云经济的卓越领导者。

    上个月，微软即将推出iPad版Office应用这则消息一经发布就激荡起层层涟漪。分析师们对此褒贬不一。《纽约时报》(The New York Times)怀疑，这个明智之举是否为时已晚。Techcrunch认为这款应用值得期待。《福布斯》(Forbes)则嗤之以鼻，认为这样做无法改变游戏规则。

    在App Store上架几个星期后，iPad版Office正在证明早期的质疑是错误的。第一周，有超过1,200万用户下载了Office应用。现在，Word，Excel和PowerPoint已成为iPad App Store三大最受欢迎的免费应用（游戏除外，从游戏受到的追捧可以看出，平板电脑或许是一种供用户休闲娱乐的设备，而不是提高生产率的利器）。这些基本应用免费提供一些最基础的功能，但订购Office 365的用户可以享用更多功能。

    于投资者而言，iPad版Office的到来不可能转化为实实在在的收益，至少短时间内不可能。它或许会帮助微软进入那些相较于传统PC更青睐平板电脑的企业的购买选项，但此举也有可能蚕食微软固有的高利润市场。自iPad问世以来，台式机和笔记本电脑的销量一直在下降，尽管近几个月来这种下滑正在趋于稳定。

    于微软而言，此举恐怕不会带动短期收益，它所具有的象征性价值更高一些。像微软这类行业巨擘的CEO往往会设定一家公司的基调，而且就某些方面而言，鲍尔默时期笼罩在微软上空的那片阴云似乎已经消退。当然，鲍尔默也曾经致力于把微软推向一个更开放的方向，但纳德拉接掌大权之后，这一幕似乎终于开始转化为现实。

    当然，Office只是微软业务的一部分。除了它之外，微软商用事业部的主要贡献者还包括Sharepoint和Exchange。该事业部占微软收入的三分之一，运营收入的五分之三。但商用事业部近年来一直业绩平平——在微软公司截止2013年6月份的上一财年，这一块的收入仅增长了 2.5%，在2013年的下半年更是下跌了6%。

    微软服务器和在线服务事业部的收入正在呈现更快的增长势头，尽管这些部门的利润率要低得多。（在线事业部更是常年亏损。）所以，尽管iPad版Office被视为纳德拉治下的微软的一大象征性胜利，但这家公司依然受困于一些老问题：企业级软件市场和老态龙钟的PC操作软件业务。

    iPad版Office对于告别鲍尔默、进入纳德拉时代的微软而言不啻为一个良好的开端，但这位新晋掌门人随后还需要推出更多富有创意的大胆举措。唯有如此，微软才能不负投资者目前的期望，实现华丽转身，成为一家活力四射、面向未来的公司。（财富中文网）

    译者：叶寒

    How does a CEO grab attention when he's the follow-up act to a brash, voluble leader like Steve Ballmer? For Satya Nadella, who hardly seems prone to the same kind of sweat-soaked stage performance of his predecessor, the answer lay in a bold strategic gesture: Get Microsoft (MSFT) Office onto the iPad.

    Office, of course, had long been Microsoft's great cash cow fenced off from the green pastures of the tablet market. Some believed it was the reason Microsoft started making Surface tablets after decades of not manufacturing personal computing devices. That expensive experiment hasn't exactly delivered a hit. Surface sales are growing, but its 2% market share lags those of Samsung, Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire, and of course the iPad (AAPL).

    With Nadella taking the reins from Ballmer, Microsoft has the chance to begin a new era -- distinct from the Ballmer years that saw modest growth and a move into enterprise software, and even more remote from the Gates years when Microsoft ruled PC software with an iron fist. Nadella's Microsoft appears to be a company that aims to compete in markets rather than control them.

    Nadella's experience is aligned with the same technologies that promise future growth -- cloud computing, multi-platforms, mobility, big data -- the antithesis of the proprietary software that Microsoft built its historical success on. That's why the Office 365 for iPad announcement was notable. It wasn't so much two longtime enemies sharing revenue. It was Microsoft risking its own mobile platform by expanding to another, bigger platform. It was a Microsoft open like never before.

    The announcement was also Nadella's first big public appearance, a product launch cum CEO debut. The move was a risky one: It could telegraph that Microsoft was capitulating to Apple (AAPL), running its prized wares on its old rival's device while paying a 30% share of revenue for the privilege. Increasingly, Nadella is instead being seen as a leader who can finally usher the company out of the PC era and into the cloud economy.

    Last month, when Microsoft announced that Office apps would be available for the iPad, the news stirred a ripple of notice. Analysis was mixed. The New York Times wondered if it wasn't the right move too late. Techcrunch found it to be worth the wait. Someone at Forbes dismissed it as a non-game changer.

    After a few weeks in the App Store, Office for iPad is proving the early skeptics wrong. More than 12 million people downloaded Office Apps in the first week. Today, Word, Excel, and Powerpoint are the three most popular free apps in the iPad App Store (excluding games, which shows that tablets may be better for idleness than productivity). The basic apps are free for bare-bones functionality, but a subscription to Office 365 opens up more features.

    For investors, the arrival of Office for iPad is unlikely to translate into material earnings, at least any time soon. It may open Microsoft to businesses that prefer tablets over traditional PCs, but it could also cannibalize the company's older, high-margin markets. Desktop and laptop sales have been declining since the iPad's introduction, although recent months have shown signs those declines are stabilizing.

    If the move has little short-term benefit for Microsoft, its symbolic value is higher. CEOs of prominent companies like Microsoft often set the tone of a company, and in some ways Microsoft now appears to have lost the cloud hanging over it when Ballmer was there. Ballmer, of course, also worked to push Microsoft into a more open direction, but somehow Nadella's presence makes it seem like it may finally be happening.

    Office, of course, is only one part of Microsoft's business. It's the prime contributor to the company's business division, along with Sharepoint and Exchange. That division makes up a third of Microsoft's revenue and three-fifths of its operating income. But growth in the division has been flat -- revenue rose only 2.5% in Microsoft's last fiscal year (ended June 2013) and declined 6% in the last six months of 2013.

    Microsoft is seeing faster revenue growth in its server and online services divisions, although these segments have much lower margins. (The online division has been a perennial money loser.) So while the Office move is seen as a symbolic victory for Nadella's Microsoft, the company is still weighed down by many of the same old issues: an enterprise software market and the aging business in PC operating software.

    Office for iPad is a strong start to Nadella's follow-up act to Ballmer. But it will need to be followed by a lot more creative, bold moves to change Microsoft into the dynamic, future-oriented company that investors are hoping it can become.