三大零售趋势值得关注

    互联网颠覆了几乎每一个行业，但或许没有哪一个行业比零售业经历的变革更为彻底。互联网近乎全球的覆盖范围以及智能电话的迅速普及推动我们的购物方式和零售商的竞争方式都发生了数不胜数的改变。未来一些年还将发生更多的变化，以下是需要我们关注的三大趋势。

    传统实体店将长期存在

    很多大型零售商要么已经关门歇业（比如，图书零售商Borders和电子产品零售商Circuit City），要么仍在苦苦挣扎【比如，玩具零售商玩具反斗城（Toys 'R' Us）和电子产品零售商百思买（Best Buy）】，这是因为互联网可以更好地实现以极低价格向消费者提供大量多样化的产品。随着越来越多连锁店关门，似乎表明我们如今根本就不需要这么多实体店（难道我们过去就需要这么多吗？），因为通过互联网更容易实现比价购买和重复购买。

    但是，没有人觉得实体店会完全消亡。本地零售商（大家可以身临其境品尝、感受、体验产品的地方？）仍然有它存在的价值。发生改变的是，零售商已经认识到需要用一些尝试体验活动来吸引客户。纽约市药品连锁店Duane Reade将旗下药店分成了三个区域：购买即食产品的“高端市场”；提供美容、美甲、试香和虚拟造型服务的“时尚精品店” ，以及由专业人士提供健康建议的“药店”。所有这些都是需要客户真正走进店内，获得亲身体验的服务。

    线上和线下购物：无缝体验

    零售商一直在讨论“全渠道零售”，这个行业术语指的是零售商可以在实体和数字商店之间无缝转换。这是很多零售商梦寐以求的目标，但如今看来，鲜有零售商是完完全全的“全渠道零售”，在库存、预算、薪酬和销售/采购流程各方面实现了完全的整合。

    大多数传统线下零售商也理解发展电子商务和移动平台的必要性。有趣的是，对于纯线上零售商，它们也同样考虑“全渠道零售”。Warby Parker等电子商务品牌正在设立线下展示间、实体店和印有品牌标识的送货卡车。Warby发现，为线上销售产品开设实体店可产生积极的协同效应。

    零售行业还发现，将所有这些渠道整合起来的关键节点是智能手机。智能手机不仅将线上和线下联系起来，而且可能提供出色的社交媒体营销策略机会。由著名设计师斯黛西•班戴担纲的时尚设计公司Alice and Olivia开有自己的博客，在社交媒体上也很活跃。归根结底，“全渠道零售”将不再是一种工具，而是将成为零售商的生存方式。

    更迅速的线上发货

    这些趋势从根本上改变了消费者的购买行为。线上零售商最初为了打消消费者的顾虑，吸引更多人购物，都会采用免费送货和免费退货的政策。这种做法彻底改变了消费者的预期。现在，如果他们不确定到底该选哪一双鞋，他们可以同时定好几双，在自己家里试穿。他们可以自己拍照，发到网上，看看朋友们的反应。

    送货时间的预期也缩短了。eBay的“eBay Now”服务一直在尝试（针对一些城市地区）推广一项计划，只要你想要的商品在当地商店也能买到，无论你身处何方，eBay都可以在一个小时内快递给你。由此，不可避免的是，将来消费者可能会认为，一天24小时无论何时想要什么东西都可以。

    消费者能够轻松地搜索众多的零售商和品牌产品，从中选择，这也推动消费者更快地成熟起来。价格敏感的消费者可以搜索到最优价格。成熟的消费者可以轻松学习产品特性，搜索最佳的产品配置。

    随着消费者越来越成熟，两头都够不着的零售商将难以生存。但是，如果一个品牌懂得消费者，能专注于消费者需求，提供无与伦比的品牌购物体验，这样的品牌仍将繁荣发展。（财富中文网）

    本文作者芭芭拉•卡恩是宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院杰伊•贝克零售中心主任兼营销教授。她同时还在担任零售与消费产品高管峰会的主席。

    The Internet has upended nearly every industry, but perhaps no category has undergone a more radical transformation than retail. Near-global access to the Internet and speedy adoption rates of smartphones have spawned countless changes to the way we shop and how retailers compete. In the coming years, there will be many more changes, but here are three big trends to watch for.

    Long live brick-and-mortar stores

    Many big-box retailers are either closing (e.g. Borders, Circuit City) or struggling (e.g., Toys 'R' Us, Best Buy), as the business model of providing consumers with a huge assortment of products at very low price is better delivered online. And as we see more chain stores close, it seems we just don't need as many physical outlets (did we ever?) since price-based and repeat buying are easier online.

    However, no one is predicting the complete demise of the physical store. Local retailers -- where you can touch, smell, and feel the product -- still offer value. What's changing is that retailers have begun to recognize the need for experiential events to lure customers. Drugstore Duane Reade in New York City has divided their stores into three areas: The "up market," where you can buy ready-to-eat meals; the "Look boutique," which offers salon and nail services, fragrance testers, and virtual makeovers; the "pharmacy," where health professionals offer health advice. All of these require the consumer to actually walk into stores that offer services best delivered in person.

    Shopping on- and offline: A seamless experience

    Retailers have been talking a lot about "omni channel," an industry term that means shoppers can transition seamlessly between both physical and digital stores. It's something many retailers aspire to, but for now, few are totally omni-channel, whereby their online and physical businesses are fully integrated in terms of inventories, budgets, compensation, and sales/purchases processes.

    Most traditional offline retailers understand the need to develop their e-commerce and mobile platforms. Interestingly, the same is true for pure-play online retailers in that they too are thinking about omni-channel strategies. E-commerce brands, such as Warby Parker, are opening offline showrooms, physical stores, and branded delivery trucks. Warby has found that there are positive synergies when they open up physical stores for their online sales.

    The retailing industry also recognizes that the critical connector integrating all of these channels is the smartphone. The smartphone not only connects online to offline but also offers the possibility of clever social media strategies. Fashion design firm Alice and Olivia by Stacey Bendet publishes a blog and is active on social media. Eventually the words "omni-channel" will cease to be useful, and the term will simply become a way of life for retailers.

    Faster online deliveries

    These trends are fundamentally changing consumers' shopping behavior. When online retailers first tempted shoppers to become less risk averse and buy online, they offered free delivery and free returns. This radically changed consumers' expectations. Now, if they were unsure of which shoes to choose from, they could order several pairs and try them on at home. They could take photos of themselves and post them and get friends' reactions.

    Expectations for delivery times are shortening as well. eBay's "eBay Now" has been test-marketing a program (in some urban cities) where anything that you want that is available in a local store can be delivered to you wherever you are within an hour. It seems inevitable that consumers will expect they can get whatever they want, whenever they want, 24 hours a day.

    Access to easy search online across many retailers and branded goods has also increased the sophistication of consumers. Those who are price-sensitive can find the very best price. Those who are sophisticated can easily educate themselves on product features and search for the optimal product configuration.

    With all this consumer sophistication, retailers stuck in the middle will not survive. However, brands that understand the consumer, focus strategies on their needs, and offer an unparalleled branded shopping experience will thrive.

    Barbara Kahn is a professor of marketing and director of the Jay H. Baker Retailing Center at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She is also chair of the Retail and Consumer Goods Executive Summit.