Google+是否还有明天

    凭借自动驾驶汽车、以眼镜为代表的可穿戴式计算机、以及将3G网络带入新兴市场的太阳能高压气球，谷歌（Google）依旧是技术界最具有未来气息的公司之一。不过，它的创新产品之一社交网络Google+却让它看起来明显跟不上时代。

    Google+自两年前问世以来一直命途多舛。观察家一直质疑这个社交网络能否在Facebook和Twitter主宰的市场上闯出一片天地。显然，Google+比Facebook晚上七年出生不是什么好事，这意味着它需要付出许多努力来迎头追赶。（的确，曾任Facebook游戏合作部门主任的肖恩•莱恩曾经嘲笑说Google+根本没有用户。）

    高德纳研究公司（Gartner Research）研究总监布莱恩•布劳说：“我觉得谷歌就是错过了那个机会。”他指的是2000年代中期时，顾客想要与朋友和家人在网上交流沟通的欲望一直无法宣泄。“这是一场艰苦的斗争，尤其是你还要挑战Facebook的地位。”

    确实，正如2011年出版的《谷歌如何思考、运作并改变我们的生活方式》（In the Plex）中所说，作为一家大型公司投身社交网络市场的举措，Google+算不上一项高瞻远瞩的创新。

    随着在谷歌效力8年的高级副总裁维克•古多塔于上周离职，关于Google+即将消亡的猜测愈演愈烈。Google+是否还能得以维持？这个问题如今变得扑朔迷离。科技网站TechCrunch引用匿名消息源称，Google+的开发将会降温，它会从谷歌的主要产品过渡为一个幕后的平台。领导Google+开发和集成的古多塔如今离职可以看成它已经不堪重负的标志。

    谷歌在Google+扩大使用范围和用户基础时，采用了极其积极主动的做法，把它植入了包括Gmail在内的许多谷歌的服务项目，通过推出特色项目来与Facebook争夺领先优势，比如利用Google+账户登录其他服务、利用+1按钮推荐网络内容等功能。这一切努力都在谷歌去年10月的报告中得到了体现：这项谷歌服务的月活跃用户达到3亿，用户每周上传的图片已经达到了15亿张。

    布莱恩•布劳认为照片和视频是Google+可以同竞争者抗衡的少数几个领域，他建议说：“不妨试着增加照片和视频，同时进一步削减文字的比重，然后再看看效果如何？”

    无论如何，不管有没有古多塔，Google+可能依然会存活下去。据说，在谷歌工作了6年的工程副总裁大卫•贝斯布里斯将成为古多塔的接班人。他被之前的同事称为“自然之力”，是一位“高瞻远瞩的领袖”。

    曾在美国在线（AOL）与他共事的约翰•罗宾逊在贝斯布里斯的LinkedIn简介中写道：“他有办法在当下的现实中找到正确的方向，同时描绘出未来的一切可能。”就算Google+逐渐式微，但它如果还想继续维持下去的话，贝斯布里斯的这些素质将来可能会派上用场。

    译者：严匡正

    With self-driving cars, a wearable computer worn like eyewear and solar-powered, high-pressure balloons that bring 3G-level Internet connectivity to emerging markets, Google (GOOG) remains one of the most futuristic companies in tech. But one of its initiatives -- the social network Google+ -- is making the company look decidedly backward.

    Since Google+ launched two years ago, the social network has not had it easy. Observers have asked whether the social network can succeed in a space already dominated by Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR). Certainly, it didn't help that Google+ arrived seven years after Facebook, which meant a lot of catching up. (Indeed, Facebook's ex-director of game partnerships Sean Ryan once ribbed the platform for not having users.)

    "I think Google just missed that opportunity," said Gartner Research Director Brian Blau, referring to consumers' pent-up desire in the mid-2000s to connect and engage with their friends and family members online. "It's an uphill battle, especially when you're competing on Facebook's terms."

    Indeed, as the 2011 book "In the Plex" explained, Google+ wasn't a forward-thinking initiative so much as a massive company effort to catch up in social networking.

    Adding to the speculation about the demise of Google+ was Google Senior Vice President Vic Gundotra's departure last week after 8 years with the tech giant. It raised questions about whether Google+ was on life support, with tech site TechCrunch citing anonymous sources saying Google+ development would be throttled back from being a major product to more of a behind-the-scenes platform. The absence of Gundotra now, who led Google+ development and integration, could be viewed as an onerous sign.

    Google has certainly been extremely aggressive in the way it has expanded Google+'s reach and user base, integrating it into many of its own services, including Gmail, and taking Facebook's lead with features, such as the ability to sign into services with a Google+ account or a +1 button across Internet content. All those efforts have translated into a reported 300 million monthly active users uploading 1.5 billion photos a week to Google services as of October.

    "What if they played up photos and videos and cut back on text further?" suggested Blau, who argues that photography and video are among the few areas where the social network can match its rivals.

    Regardless, there may be life yet in Google+, with or without Gundotra. Google VP of engineering and six-year company veteran David Besbris is said to be Gundotra's heir apparent and has been described by his former colleagues as a "force of nature" and a "visionary leader."

    "He's able to navigate the realities of the present, while simultaneously charting the possibilities of the future," wrote John Robinson, a former AOL (AOL) coworker, on Besbris' LinkedIn (LNKD) profile. Those are the qualities that will likely prove handy if Google+ is to continue, even in a diminished role.