菲亚特克莱斯勒第2个5年计划渐露真容

    对于到了一定年纪的赛车迷和影迷们来说，阿尔法-罗密欧( Alfa Romeo)让他们想起的是1967年达斯汀•霍夫曼在电影《毕业生》（The Graduate）中扮演的那位迷茫、为情所困的年轻人本杰明•布莱德克驾驶的1600蜘蛛敞篷车。

    但对于新合并的汽车公司——菲亚特克莱斯勒（Fiat and Chrysler）的CEO塞尔吉奥•马尔奇奥尼而言，阿尔法-罗密欧代表的是一个有待兑现的美好诺言，即根据这两家公司的复兴计划，把这个意大利奢侈品牌引入美国市场。

    周二，马尔奇奥尼将在克莱斯勒总部奥本山进行一次大型公开演示，预计将披露阿尔法重返美国市场的更多信息、公布详细的5年投资计划、车型推出以及销售预测。克莱斯勒2009年破产后制订的第一个5年计划已基本完成。身为菲亚特CEO，马尔奇奥尼菲亚特带领这家公司以接近于零的成本收购了美国汽车制造商克莱斯勒。

    分析师们将聆听、关注菲亚特克莱斯勒的高管言行，希望搞清楚这家公司还要多久才能把年销量提高到600万台或以上。600万台大关是几年前马尔奇奥尼给出的、作为一家全球汽车生产商的经济可行性下限。今天，这个门槛可能已提高。去年，菲亚特克莱斯勒合计销售汽车440万台。预测咨询公司IHS预计，它到2018年销量将达到500万台。这家合并后的汽车生产商将于今年晚些时候挂牌上市。

    CEO马尔奇奥尼出生于加拿大。此人虽然不无缺点，但在维系这家汽车公司的生存和发展方面确有功劳。这家公司一方面受到克莱斯勒和菲亚特这个两个弱势品牌的拖累，一方面又有Jeep和Ram这两个超强品牌撑门面。马尔奇奥尼是一个干劲十足、咄咄逼人的管理者。据猎头称，他经常把年轻下属累垮。克莱斯勒在美国的汽车销量已连续49个月保持增长。他维持了销量增长，保证了公司不会被淘汰出局。

    周二的重要看点可能包括吉普Renegade的推出，这款次紧凑的运动型多用途汽车预计将在这个全球快速增长的细分市场中卷起一股强劲旋风。另一个看点将是这家汽车制造商计划加大开拓中国市场的努力。中国是全球最大、也是增长最快的汽车市场之一。

    马尔奇奥尼已承诺将在美国引入自4C蜘蛛起的6款阿尔法车型。最近的一些车展上，4C蜘蛛已经开始作为概念车进行展示。AutoPacific分析师戴夫•沙利文表示，相比市场地位已经稳固的德国、日本和美国奢侈品牌，阿尔法面临一场“登山战役”。

    由于奢侈车型相比主流车型利润丰厚，这些车型在产生收入以及在整个车系间分摊先进技术的开发投资成本方面具有重要意义。在上个5年计划中，马尔奇奥尼预测阿尔法将于2012年登陆美国，到今天在全球的销量应该达到500,000台。去年，这个品牌的欧洲销量仅略高于64,000台。

    For sports car and cinema fans of a certain age, Alfa Romeo will evoke the 1600 Spider convertible driven by Benjamin Braddock, the confused and lovesick young man played by Dustin Hoffman in the 1967 film The Graduate.

    For Sergio Marchionne, chief executive of the newly merged Fiat and Chrysler automobile companies, Alfa Romeo symbolizes an unkept promise, namely to introduce the Italian luxury brand in the U.S. as part of the revitalization of both companies.

    Marchionne, in a major public presentation today in Auburn Hills at Chrysler headquarters, is expected to disclose more about Alfa's eventual arrival, as well as a detailed five-year plan of investments, vehicle introductions, and sales forecasts. Chrysler largely made good on its first five-year plan, conceived in the wake of the automaker's 2009 bankruptcy. As chief executive of Fiat, Marchionne led Fiat's purchase of the U.S. automaker for nearly nothing.

    Analysts will be listening and watching Fiat Chrysler executives carefully to learn how soon Fiat Chrysler Automobile NV (FIATY) might be able to sell 6 million or more vehicles annually. That threshold is the one Marchionne identified several years ago as the minimum for economic viability of a global automaker, and that total might be higher today. Last year, Fiat and Chrysler jointly sold 4.4 million vehicles. IHS, a forecasting consultancy, sees sales of 5 million by 2018. The merged automaker will be incorporated and listed as a public company later this year.

    The Canadian-born CEO deserves credit, despite a few shortcomings, for maintaining the viability of an automobile enterprise that is slowed by two weak brands, Chrysler and Fiat, and sustained by two very strong ones, Jeep and Ram. He is a driven and hard-driving executive who, according to headhunters, pushes younger subordinates to the brink of exhaustion. Chrysler's streak of monthly sales gains in the U.S. has reached 49 months. He keeps posting gains and, as such, keeps his company in the game.

    The bright spots to be highlighted likely will include introduction of the Jeep Renegade, a subcompact sport-utility vehicle that's expected to compete vigorously worldwide in one of the fast-growing product segments. Another will be the automaker's plans to ramp up its efforts in China, the world's biggest market and one of the fastest-growing.

    Marchionne has promised six Alfa models in the U.S., starting with the 4C Spider, which has appeared recently at auto shows as a concept. Dave Sullivan, an analyst for AutoPacific, says Alfa will have an "uphill battle" against better established German, Japanese, and U.S. luxury brands.

    Because luxury models are highly profitable compared to mainstream counterparts, they're vital for generating revenue and for providing a way to spread the investment cost of developing advanced technologies across the entire spectrum of vehicles. Under his last five-year plan, Marchionne forecast that Alfa would reach the U.S. in 2012 and be selling 500,000 units worldwide by now. Last year, the brand sold just more than 64,000 in Europe.