中俄天然气交易：外交与环境的双赢

    俄罗斯的天然气很快将输送到中国。这是俄方在与欧盟能源政策战中的最新举措。

    此举将使俄罗斯及其天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）扩大与亚洲的贸易，打破长期以来俄罗斯通过西线向欧洲输送天然气的传统，因此具有重要的象征意义。此外，乌克兰危机爆发后，欧盟正在尝试减少对莫斯科的依赖，而此举可以缓解俄罗斯因此受到的影响。据《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal）报道，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司目前供应欧洲所需天然气总量的30%，其中一半要经过乌克兰。乌克兰近期爆发的危机导致这家公司担忧向欧洲大陆的天然气输送可能遭到干扰。

    据《华尔街日报》报道，经过十多年的谈判，俄罗斯与中国终于在本周二签署了协议，由俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司每年向中国供气380亿立方米，相当于中国目前年消耗量的四分之一。但中国的天然气需求增长迅速，与俄罗斯的交易只能占到中国未来消耗量的一小部分。

    这笔交易的规模没有争议，但目前外界还无法明确判断谁能从中获利，获利几何。俄罗斯新闻机构引用俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司CEO阿列克谢•米勒的话称，交易总价值为4,000亿美元，为期30年。但他表示交易的定价“是商业机密”。据《俄罗斯商业日报》（Vedomosti）报道，通过粗略计算，4,000亿美元除以30年的供应量，得出的价格约为每千立方米350美元，略低于欧洲去年支付的360美元的平均价格。但区别在于，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司首先必须从西伯利亚东部的油田修建新的管道，据《俄罗斯商业日报》报道，新管道的建设成本约为300亿美元。

    围绕价格，俄罗斯和中国已经进行了多年讨价还价，即使在周二晚些时候，《金融时报》（Financial Times）引用一位中石油（Petrochina）官员的话称，由于国内较低的价格，中石油已经在赔钱。米勒先生表示，双方就天然气进口设定了“特惠”税制，意味着俄罗斯利用这个合约填补财政的空间有限。俄罗斯的大部分预算收入均来自石油与天然气出口。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Russian gas may soon be flowing into China, the latest move in a raw game of energy power politics being played between Moscow and the European Union.

    The move allows energy Gazprom (OGZPY), and Russia in general, to expand its trade with Asia, a hugely symbolic move that breaks with its long tradition of sending its gas westwards to Europe. As such, it could reduce Russia's vulnerability to EU moves to reduce its own dependence on Moscow in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine. Gazprom currently supplies 30% of Europe's gas, according to the Journal report, half of which flows through Ukraine. The recent crisis in that country has led to fears of a disruption in gas flow to the Continent.

    After a decade of negotiations, Russia and China finally signed an agreement Tuesday for Gazprom to pump 38 billion cubic meters of gas into China per year, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. That's about a quarter of what China currently consumes in a year, but its gas demand is growing so fast that the Russian deal only represent a much smaller fraction of future consumption.

    There's no arguing over the size of the deal, but it is far from clear who will make how much money from it. Russian news agencies quoted Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller as putting a $400 billion tag on the overall value of the contract, which will run for 30 years. However, he said the pricing of the deal "is a commercial secret." A rough calculation dividing $400 billion over 30 years of supplies would give a price of around $350 per 1,000 cubic meters, fractionally below the $360 that Europe paid on average last year, according to the newspaper Vedomosti. However, the big difference is that Gazprom will first have to build a new pipeline from its fields in eastern Siberia, which Vedomosti said could cost $30 billion.

    Russia and China have haggled for years over price, and even late Tuesday, the Financial Times was quoting an official from Chinese energy company Petrochina as saying that the company is already losing money on imported gas because of low prices at home. Mr. Miller said the sides envisaged a "preferential" tax regime for the gas exports, suggesting that Russia will have limited room to use the contract to fill its own treasury. Most of Russia's budget revenues still come from oil and gas exports.