中国移动海外扩张 或通过收购进军美国市场

    人们很难忽视中国移动（China Mobile）。按照用户人数计算（最近统计的数据为7.6亿人），它是全世界最大的无线运营商。由于它在中国本土如此成功，以至于中国政府为了削弱它的支配地位，甚至允许另外两家国家控股运营商——中国联通（China Unicom）和中国电信（China Telecom），成立合营公司，建设和管理中国的电信基础设施。

    因此，中国移动近期表示希望进军海外市场的举动也就不难理解了。尤其是中国移动董事长奚国华，从不掩饰公司准备在北美与欧洲市场寻找发展机会的事实。这家公司推出中国首个4G网络之后就宣布了这个消息。中国移动希望利用4G网络打开海外市场，为公司开拓全球业务，提高盈利能力。

    中国移动能否对威瑞森（Verizon）和美国电话电报公司（AT&T）等构成严重威胁？分析师们认为，进入竞争激烈的美国市场面临着许多障碍。

    伦敦市场研究公司HIS Technology分析师朱利安•沃森认为：“由于中国移动没有频谱和移动牌照，因此，它可能需要收购现有的运营商，在未来的拍卖中购买频谱，或作为MVNO进入市场。”MVNO或移动虚拟网络运营商，通常按批发价从现有运营商购买网络服务使用权，之后将其转售给自己的零售用户。

    到目前为止，中国移动的海外市场只有巴基斯坦。2007年，中国移动以3亿美元收购了巴科泰尔有限公司（Paktel）。要在美国进行大规模收购并不容易，但也并不是完全没有可能。

    日本的软银集团（SoftBank）2012年收购了美国第3大无线运营商斯普林特（Sprint），还计划在下个月出价收购美国第四大运营商T-Mobile。如果软银要想与威瑞森和AT&T正面交锋，必须合并这两家无线运营商，尽管美国监管部门担心合并将减少竞争，进而对美国消费者造成不利影响。

    如果在年底之前，监管部门反对这笔交易，正如它曾在2011年反对AT&T以290亿美元收购T-Mobile一样，中国移动将迎来机会，有望与T-Mobile的母公司德国电信进行谈判。

    要进入美国市场，还有其他途径。中国移动的第二种选择是购买频谱。美国联邦通信委员会（U.S. Federal Communications Commission）启动了六年来第一次大规模无线频谱拍卖。其中，目前用于传输电视信号的在600 MHz频率范围内最有价值的低频频谱将于2015开始拍卖。

    中国移动不需要亲自参与频谱的竞购。它可以与一家美国无线运营商合作，竞购新推出的频谱。这种做法除了可以分担成本外，还可以帮助中国移动获得兼容性优势：中国使用的4G标准TD-LTE（时分长期演进）可以补充美国使用的标准FD-LTE（频分长期演进）。

    It's difficult to ignore China Mobile (CHL). The world's largest wireless carrier as measured by subscribers -- 760 million at last count -- the company is so successful in its home country that the Chinese government wants to reduce the its domestic dominance by allowing two other state-controlled carriers, China Unicom and China Telecom, to establish a joint venture to build and manage telecommunications infrastructure in the country.

    It's understandable, then, that China Mobile has recently expressed interest in flexing its substantial muscle in overseas markets. Chairman Xi Guohua in particular has made no secret of the fact that the state-owned enterprise is ready to explore growth opportunities in North America and Europe. The news comes on the heels of the launch of China's first 4G network, which China Mobile hopes to leverage overseas to build a global footprint and boost profitability.

    Could China Mobile pose a serious threat to the likes of Verizon (VZN) and AT&T (T)? Analysts say the hurdles are high for entry into the crowded U.S. market.

    "Because it lacks spectrum and mobile licenses, it would need to acquire existing operators, buy spectrum in future auctions, or enter the market as an MVNO," says Julian Watson, an analyst at the research firm IHS Technology in London. A mobile virtual network operator, or MVNO, typically buys access to network services from an existing operator at wholesale rates, then resells to its own retail subscribers.

    To date, China Mobile's only foreign play is in Pakistan. In 2007, it purchased Paktel for about $300 million. Making a significant acquisition in the U.S. would be difficult, but not impossible.

    Japan's SoftBank, which acquired the No. 3 U.S. wireless carrier Sprint (S) in 2012, is expected to make a bid for the No. 4 U.S. carrier, T-Mobile (TMUS), next month. SoftBank is believed to need to combine the two wireless carriers if it hopes to compete head-to-head with Verizon and AT&T, though U.S. regulators have expressed concern that such a merger would reduce competition and negatively impact American consumers.

    If regulators sink the deal before the year is out -- just as they did with AT&T's proposed $39 billion acquisition of T-Mobile in 2011 -- it could open the door to China Mobile negotiating an agreement with T-Mobile's parent company, Deutsche Telekom.

    There are other ways to enter the U.S. market. China Mobile's second option is buying spectrum. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has kicked off its first major auction of wireless airwaves in six years. The most valuable band, low-frequency airwaves in the 600 MHz range currently being used for broadcast TV signals, is scheduled to hit the block in 2015.

    China Mobile need not go after the spectrum alone, either. The company could partner with a U.S. wireless carrier to bid for the newly available band. In additional to cost sharing, China Mobile would enjoy compatibility: The 4G standard used in China, known as TD-LTE (Time Division-Long Term Evolution), complements the standard used in the U.S., FD-LTE (Frequency Division-Long-Term Evolution).