网络安全产业泡沫正在形成？

    网络安全已经发展成了一个非常庞大的产业。据美国战略与国际研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）2014年6月的一份报告显示，全球每年花在防范计算机与网络犯罪上的投入高达4450亿美元。黑客技术的发展也日新月益，而且黑客们也越来越把目标瞄向一些全球知名企业，比如零售业的塔吉特（Target）和尼曼（Neiman）、金融巨头摩根大通（JP Morgan）、科技巨擘eBay、Snapchat、Adobe，以及无数其他公司。

    网络安全威胁对很多企业来说无疑是真实存在的，而且风险还在逐年上升。但是我们有必要问一句，人们对网络安全的担心是否有些过头了？眼下是否确实有一个网络安全泡沫正在发酵？过去两年里，经常有一些未经证实的案例吸引了消费者的好奇和恐慌，同时也导致主流媒体加大了对网络安全泄密事件的报道力度，从而引起了更多人的恐慌。随之而来的是更多的报道，将网络安全的威胁渲染到了无以复加的地步。很多希望通过发现“下一个大事件”而发一笔横财的投资人还没有慎重考察这个行业的基本财务指标（比如行业的总体目标市场、合理增长率和每个厂商能分得的市场份额等），就匆忙跳进了这个行业。

    由于投资人表现得过于热情，网络安全公司的股价往往被高估。在公开和私募市场上，对网络安全公司过度投资的现象都可以用泛滥一词来形容。公开市场上现在已经出现了纠正的迹象。比如FireEye公司就是网络安全行业上市公司中的典型代表，虽然它的年收益只有2.07亿美元，但今年3月它的估值一度高达130亿美元，但目前已经回落到52亿美元。

    据美国市调公司CB Insights披露，在私募市场上，2013年各大风投公司向239家网络安全公司投入了创记录的14亿美金的资本。这些交易的融资规模中值和交易前估值都呈现显著上涨的势头。如果投资人以显著高于公司内在价值的价格购买一笔资产，同时在宣传的影响下对它们的财务标准过于乐观，那么可以想见，我们正在见证一个资产泡沫的形成。

    在我们YL Ventures公司，我们发现这种现象甚至出现在了种子阶段的创业公司身上！自从2012年以来，新的网络安全公司如雨后春笋般涌现，四处融资；同时，对这个领域毫无经验的投资人也蜂拥而入。由于我们在美国和以色列市场都有敞口，因此我们在美国和以色列市场上都发现了这个现象，这两个国家都是网络安全创新的热土。

    有些上市网络安全公司股票的暴跌是否预示着大泡沫全面破裂的幻灭阶段已经开始了？如果答案是肯定的，那么泡沫崩盘的过程是如暴风骤雨一般，还是缓慢衰退？我们还不知道，不过我们已经做好了准备，应对众多网络安全公司可能难以获得更多融资的局面。市场对网络安全公司的估值可能会下跌，投资人也可能变得更加谨慎。

    本文作者约阿夫•利特斯多尔夫和奥弗•施赖伯是YL Ventures公司的合伙人，该公司主要从事网络安全、云计算、大数据和“软件即服务”软件公司的早期投资。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    Cybersecurity has gotten big – real big. Crime involving computers and networks has cost the world economy more than $445 billion annually, according to a June 2014 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Increasingly, hackers have grown more sophisticated targeting major corporations from retailers Target TGT 0.74% andNeiman Marcus to financial juggernaut JP Morgan JPM 0.97% and technology leaders eBay EBAY 0.12% , Snapchat and Adobe ADBE -0.12% , and countless others.

    The threats are indeed real and escalating for many corporations, but it’s worth asking if the fears are overplayed and if a cybersecurity bubble is brewing? For the past two years, consumer curiosity and fear,often unjustified, has fueled mainstream media coverage of cybersecurity breaches causing more fear and more coverage, resulting in hype. Many investors looking to speculate on the next big thing have been buying into the industry with little regard for sound financial metrics such as the industry’s total addressable market, its reasonable growth rate, and each vendor’s slice of the overall pie.

    Investors have been too enthusiastic, and as a result, the shares of cybersecurity companies are overpriced. Overinvestment has been rampant in both the public and private markets. In the public market, thecorrection is already underway. FireEye FEYE -0.81% , the current poster-child of public cybersecurity pure plays is currently valued at $5.2 billion, down from $13 billion in March, with only $207 million in annual revenues. Imperva IMPV 1.41% is now worth $573 million, down from $1.7 billion in March, with $141 million in annual sales. Both companies have yet to turn a profit.

    In the private market, venture capital firms invested a record of $1.4 billion in 239 cybersecurity companies in 2013, according to CB Insights. The median deal size and average pre-money valuation for these transactions increased significantly. When investors buy assets priced much higher than intrinsic values and are overly optimistic about financial metrics influenced by hype, one can suspect that one is witnessing an asset bubble.

    At YL Ventures, we experience this phenomenon even with seed-stage startups! The number of new cybersecurity companies looking for funding has dramatically increased since 2012; early-stage funding rounds got a lot bigger; pre-money valuations have increased dramatically; and investors that have no experience investing in the space are flocking into it. These observations are true for both the U.S. and theIsraeli markets to which we have exposure – both are hotbeds of cybersecurity innovation.

    Is the disillusionment phase that seems to have begun in some public cybersecurity stocks indicative of a broader bubble burst? If so, will it be quick and dramatic, or gradual and tame? We don’t know, but we are prepared for a world in which cybersecurity companies may struggle to raise more financing, valuations may decrease and investors may become more defensive.

    Yoav Leitersdorf and Ofer Schreiber are partners at YL Ventures, which invests early in cybersecurity, cloud computing, big data and Software-as-a-Service software companies.