iPod之父法德尔亲口讲述Nest诞生记：掘金1000万只恒温器大市场

    托尼•法德尔曾经是苹果公司（Apple）高管，离职后与人共同创建了Nest【这家公司最近被谷歌（Google）斥资32亿美元收购】。他因为创造性的思维和颠覆性的技术被人们比作史蒂夫•乔布斯以及拉里•佩奇。

    2014年6月30日出版的《财富》杂志将刊登一篇关于法德尔的特写。此外，他最近还出席了在加州拉古纳尼古尔召开的《财富》绿色头脑风暴大会（Brainstorm Green Conference）。下面是杂志当期报道中未能收录的一些法德尔的想法。

    《财富》：你创建了Nest，开发了公司的第一款产品——恒温器。说说你当时灵光一现的顿悟时刻吧。

    法德尔：首先，我问自己，这个产品构思好不好？我的回答是：“这个产品构思很好，市场上还没有类似产品。我在网上什么都能查。但市场上就是没有类似产品。然后我问：“那这项业务是否具备商业价值？我知道我能开发出产品，但这是桩好生意吗？我接着问：“这款产品每年的销量有多大？整个市场有多大？”

    我研究发现，“哇，光美国就有25万个恒温器？那它的更新率如何？”我发现，光住宅和轻型商用恒温器每年就要更换1000多万只。我当时想道：“天呐，1000万个？这比游戏机要多！比洗衣机、干衣机、炉灶和烤箱都要多。这是个大市场。”我们渴望找到大市场，对吧？那么还有哪些是大市场？自行车市场的规模与之相当。只不过人们可能不觉得这是个大市场。就好比我们当年做iPod时，很多人都说：“CD播放器市场没钱赚。已经实现商品化了。没戏了。去干别的吧！”产品销量停滞，产品价格连年下降。这种市场往往到了该创新的时候。

    于是你有了一个自己喜欢的想法。然后呢？

    然后我调查了一下竞争对手，我说：“我们来看看谁有实力开发出下一代恒温器。”我研究了所有主要的恒温器厂商，尝试寻找正在开发新型恒温器的初创企业。我想：“假如这个领域真的有创新，我肯定能看到。”但似乎没有任何动静。经过更深入的研究，我发现，大约70％的恒温器都是通过批发销售。因此，它们并不是在面向使用者进行设计。过去恒温器的设计只是为了帮助安装者安装和销售尽可能多的产品。换言之，这一切跟消费者完全没关系。于是我告诉自己：“这个市场思维僵化，消费者难以真正了解产品。竞争对手固步自封，不求进取。而且，这个领域没有任何创新。”

    Tony Fadell, a former Apple AAPL -1.03% executive who went on to co-found Nest (which recently sold to Google GOOG 0.26% for $3.2 billion), has been likened to Steve Jobs and Larry Page for his innovative thinking and disruptive technology.

    Following our recent feature story about him in the June 30, 2014 issue of Fortune magazine—as wellhis recent appearance at the Fortune Brainstorm Green conference in Laguna Nigel, Calif.—here are some of his thoughts that didn’t make the magazine story.

    Fortune: Tell me your ‘Aha! moment’ in starting Nest, with its first product being a thermostat.

    Fadell: Well, first, I asked, was there a good product idea? And I thought, “Yeah, there’s a good product idea. Okay, there’s none out there. I can research everything on the web. There’s just nothing there.” So then I said, “Okay. Is it a good business? I know I can make this thing. Is it a good business?” And then I asked, “How many are being sold a year? What’s the total available market?”

    And when I started doing the research, I was like, “Wait a second. There’s a quarter of a million thermostats in the U.S. alone? Well, if there’s that, what’s the replacement rate?” And I looked and it was over 10 million a year for just residential and light commercial thermostats. I was like, “Wait a second. 10 million? That’s more than game machines! That’s more than washers, dryers, stoves, and ovens. That’s a big market.” We’re dying to find big markets, right? So what else is out there? Bicycles are about the same. Now, people might not perceive it as such. It was just like when we were doing the iPod, people were like, “There’s no money in CD players. It’s commoditized. There’s nothing there. Move on!” The number of units is stagnant, and the price drops every year. That’s the kind of market that’s usually ripe for innovation.

    So you had an idea you liked. Then what?

    Then I looked at the competition, and I said, “Let’s look who can do what it takes to make this next-generation thermostat.” I went down all the current incumbents, and tried to look for startups that were doing it. And every time I looked, I was like, “Wait a second. If there was true innovation here, I would be seeing it.” It didn’t seem like there was any activity. And then I looked further and I learned that about 70% of thermostats were sold through wholesale. So they weren’t being designed for people to use. They were being designed for installers to install and sell as many as they possibly could. It had nothing to do about the consumer. And then I said, “Wait a second. There’s a market with an old way of thinking in terms of how the consumer learns about the product. The competition is old and hasn’t moved. And third, there’s no innovation whatsoever.”