澳大利亚“水期货”揭秘

    “给我来一千手100兆升的八月波兰泉。”——可能不久之后，大家就会听见身边的某个交易员对着电话这样吼道。

    澳大利亚推出的一项新的期货产品或许预示着水将成为一种像原油一样的投机商品。

    自从今年3月底澳大利亚的Waterfind在线市场营业以来，已有价值160万澳元的1650亿升水期货合同在这个市场上完成了交易。这点水量对于水资源全球储备来说不过是沧海一粟，但它却标志着水资源在商品化的道路上迈出了重要的一步。

    支持和反对设立水交易市场的人士都认为，水期货市场的出现可能会改变人们对待水的态度，把它从一种像空气一样免费和普遍的资产，变成一种像石油一样待价而沽的商品。

    在Waterfind市场上，交易员现在已经可以购买水的期权，等待未来某个日期进行交付。Waterfind共同创始人兼首席执行官汤姆•鲁尼表示，有些投资人通过购买水期货合同进入一般农产品期货市场。

    鲁尼说：“他们可以继续持有期权，通过一个特定的体系进行水的交付，也可以以更好的价格销售期权。它就像购买浓缩橙汁期货或猪肉期货一样。大家可以选择按期收到将付的猪肉，然后自己吃掉大量猪肉……”也可以把合同转手，赚取利差。

    农业产品期货和石油期货交易已经存在了几百年，但是大宗期货市场在规模和影响力上的真正崛起，还是上世纪70年代全球石油危机爆发以后的事。

    澳洲人的创新

    Waterfind市场于2003年成立于南澳的阿德莱德市，鲁尼称这是因为“南澳是地球上最干旱大陆上最干旱的一个省。”创下南半球最高气温纪录的乌德达纳塔就在南澳，南澳大部分地区的平均降雨量一年还不到7英寸（约合18厘米）。

    美国有相当一部分平原（当然还有美国西部地区）的气候变得越来越像南澳，德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州部分地区的旱情可能不久就会达到澳大利亚21世纪初持续十年大旱的地步。鲁尼的期货市场如果搬到这些地区应该也会表现得很好，但澳大利亚的水期货市场更加发达。常年缺水的困境不管在心理上，还是价格上，都推高了水的价值。

    1994年澳大利亚出台的一项规定将地权与水权进行了分离，这个规定很像当年美国西部大拓荒时代的做法。它使土地所有者可以更容易地出卖自己土地上的取水权，同时也为水期货市场上的增长铺平了道路。

    除了Waterfind的网站外，这些水期权也可以在澳大利亚的其它水期货交易所交易。期权所有人可以以短期或长期两种形式销售用水权。这两种合同的定价单位都是“兆升”，每兆升代表100万升。在短期合同下，买家有权在交付日之后的12个月内用掉指定体积的水。永久合同的水价则要高出很多，在永久合同下，买家每年都可以消费指定体积的水。

    尽管水资源交易在美国和世界其它地区也不鲜见，但澳大利亚的独特之处在于，它于2004年明确将水交易市场纳入了全国的水资源保护行动。计划上市交易的原始水权必须在澳大利亚各省注册，因为各省要限制水资源总供给的下降。因此，有些人也把澳大利亚的水资源保护行动称为“戴帽交易”计划。另外，澳大利亚政府还通过一个类似于美国的全国石油储备的项目，以市价“回购”了一部分用水权。

    据咨询公司Percat Water公司的创始人、经济学家鲍伯•奥布莱恩估计，过去两年里，在澳大利亚被交易的水资源合同的价值大概在15亿澳元左右。

    据Waterfind首席执行官鲁尼估计，大约有价值3到4亿美元的水“纯粹出于投资目的”而被持有，其中有些持有水合同的还是美国企业。

    “Get me 100 megaliters of August Poland Springs at the thousand handle”—a trader near you may be squawking this into his box soon.

    The launch of a new futures exchange in Australia is the latest sign that water is becoming a speculative commodity, just like crude oil.

    Since it opened in late March, 1.6 million Australian dollars in forward contracts representing about 16.5 billion liters of water have changed hands on Waterfind’s online market. That’s a drop in the ocean of global reserves, but it’s a significant symbolic step in the gradual “commodification” of water.

    Critics and proponents of water markets alike say the emergence of a futures market could change how people perceive water, transforming it from a free and common property, like the air we breathe, to a dollar-denominated commodity like the stuff we dig out of the ground.

    With Waterfind, a trader can now buy water for delivery at a given date. Some investors buy water contracts to gain exposure to agricultural commodities in general, says Tom Rooney, co-founder and chief executive of Waterfind.

    “They can continue to hold that right to take delivery of water in a particular system, or sell that right for a greater price,” says Rooney. “It’s just like buying orange-juice concentrate futures or pork bellies. You could actually take physical delivery of pork bellies, and eat a lot of pork bellies….” Or you could sell your contract at a profit.

    Agricultural and oil futures contracts have traded for centuries the world over, though commodities markets grew significantly in both size and influence after the global oil spikes of the 1970s.

    An Aussie innovation

    Waterfind was founded in 2003 in Adelaide, South Australia, because “it’s the driest state in the driest continent on earth,” says Rooney. Oodnadatta, site of the highest recorded temperature in the Southern hemisphere, is in South Australia and much of the state gets less than seven inches of rain a year.

    Large parts of the American plains and West are starting to look more like South Australia, and droughts in parts of Texas and California may soon rival the decade-long event in Australia in the 2000s. Rooney’s futures market could work well in these regions, but Australian water markets are more developed. The constant scarcity of water there heightens the value—both spiritual and financial—of H2O.

    A 1994 Australian regulation separated land and water rights, much like what had happened during the settlement of the American West. This allowed landowners to sell access to water on their land more easily and opened the way for the growth of water markets.

    These water rights are traded on Waterfind’s website and on other water exchanges in Australia. Rights owners can sell access to their water on a temporary or permanent basis. In both circumstances, the contracts are priced per megaliter, where each megaliter represents a million liters. On a temporary contract, the buyer has the right to consume the designated volume of water in the 12 months following the delivery date. On a permanent contract, where the prices are much higher, the buyer can consume the designated volume every year in perpetuity.

    While water trading takes place in the U.S. and other parts of the world, Australia is unique in that it made markets an explicit part of its national water-conservation initiative in 2004. Original water rights must be registered with the Australian states, which limit the aggregate drawdown of supplies, leading some to describe Australia’s initiative as a ‘cap-and-trade’ program. The Australian government has also “bought back” water rights at market prices in a sort of aquatic version of America’s National Petroleum Reserve.

    Bob O’Brien, an economist and founder of consultancy Percat Water, estimates that around A$1.5 billion worth of water has traded in the last couple of years.

    Rooney of Waterfind estimates that about A$300 million to A$400 million of water is owned “purely for investment purposes,” some of it by U.S. firms.