巴西世界杯10支最值钱的球队

    大家或许会认为，如果自己的国家队拥有C•罗纳尔多或韦恩•鲁尼这样的球星，在世界杯上获得成功似乎就是轻而易举的事情。但在下这样的结论之前，不妨再多思考思考。

    有八支顶尖球队入围了一项针对最具价值国家队的最新分析报告，但其中仅有三支队伍将入围今年的世界杯16强。

    这份榜单是由总部设在瑞士的国际体育研究中心（International Centre for Sports Studies，CIES）分属机构“足球观象台（Football Observatory）”编纂的，它根据转会身价对参与世界杯的100位顶尖球员进行了排行，而榜单中的球队价值正是建立在球队中这些个别球员的价值之上。（这份榜单针对每位球员提出了一系列的价值衡量标准；但在这里，我们只谈其中最主要的衡量标准。）

    转会身价代表了一个俱乐部想从某位球员效力的母队手中买下这位球员时所预计的花费。正如大家所预料的那样，22岁的内马尔这种年轻球员的转会身价也非常高昂，而类似阿尔扬•罗本或大卫•贝克汉姆这样已经进入职业生涯晚期的球星，转会身价就相对低很多。

    世界杯遭淘汰出局的高价值球队非常多，以至于CIES足球观象台的主任拉法埃莱•波里都有些困惑不已。“实在太令人吃惊了。我们对某些一流球员如此糟糕的表现感到非常惊讶，”波里说。“但昨天（上周三）梅开二度的梅西和同样已经打入四球的内马尔还继续留在世界杯舞台上。所以说，也并不是所有的知名球员都表现差劲。”

    世界杯迄今为止的最大冷门都集中在卫冕冠军西班牙队身上，在CIES的评估中，西班牙队以6.68亿美元的价值傲居最具价值球队之首。这支球队中有多位球星进入了CIES的百大顶尖球员之列，其中包括迭戈•科斯塔、塞尔吉奥•布斯克斯和胡安•马塔。但在第一场比赛中它就以大比分输给了荷兰队，球队状态一直不理想。

    近几届世界杯成绩一直很糟糕的英格兰队再次以平淡的表现让球迷失望，在第二场比赛输给了乌拉圭以后，它就彻底告别了本届世界杯。韦恩•鲁尼（转会身价为5,860万美元）领衔的这支英格兰队的价值为4.87亿美元，球队中有12位球星位列百大顶尖球员之列，在本届杯赛中的最具价值球队中，它排在第四位。但英格兰队的表现一如既往的糟糕。

    然后是意大利队。四届世界杯冠军得主拥有马里奥•巴洛特利这样的明星前锋，他以5,590万美元的身价跻身于前25位顶尖球员之列。在上周二球队以0比1的比分输给乌拉圭的关键比赛中，巴洛特利完全没有表现出与身价相符的状态。乌拉圭队位列最具价值球队榜单的第九位——球队一半以上的价值都来自于前锋路易斯•苏亚雷斯的转会身价（但上周二比赛中发生的咬人事件也许会让他的身价打些折扣）。

    当然，并不是所有高价值球员和球队都表现失常。以5.4亿美元高居最具价值球队第二位的德国队就轻松晋级淘汰赛。排在第三位的阿根廷队拥有世界最具价值球员莱昂内尔•梅西，他一个人身价就高达3.176亿美元。阿根廷队也轻松进入了下一轮的淘汰赛。与此同时，本届世界杯的夺冠热门巴西也击败喀麦隆晋级了16强，在CIES的榜单上这支球队的价值仅次于英格兰，身价高达9,950万美元的前锋内马尔的四粒进球让巴西队一路高歌猛进。

    和往年一样，今年的世界杯也不乏黑马球队。

    任何体育估值方式都存在缺陷。CIES的评估方法并不能解释哥斯达黎加或美国这样的球队在本届世界杯上大放异彩的原因，这两支队伍都没有哪怕一位球员能进入百大之列。这些球队的经历表明，成功并不是完全取决于拥有赫赫有名的大球星。在同组对手英格兰、意大利和乌拉圭的比赛中，哥斯达黎加队保持了全胜。而美国队只要在周四对阵德国队的比赛中收获一场平局（美国最终0:1不敌德国，但依靠净胜球优势以小组第二身份出线——译注），就能顺利从这个小组突围。

    “球队的整体价值也许会大于构成部分的球员的价值总和，”英格兰考文垂大学（Coventry University）的运动商业策略和营销专业教授西蒙•查德威克说。“一支球队的经济估值并不能用来解释更为无形的球队氛围和活力属性，”查德威克在接受采访的电子邮件中这样写到。

    You’d think that having the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney on your country’s roster would seem to almost guarantee World Cup success. Think again.

    Only three of the top eight teams in a new analysis of the most valuable national teams will reach this year’s Round of 16.

    The list, compiled by The Football Observatory at the Swiss-based International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES), bases team value on a team’s individual players, ranking the top 100 men participating in the World Cup by transfer value. (The list provides a range of value for each player; here, we use the high end of that range.)

    Transfer value represents what a club can expect to pay a player’s previous team to break his contract. As you’d expect, transfer value is very high for younger players like 22-year-old Neymar, while aging stars such as Arjen Robben or even David Beckham yield much lower figures.

    Even CIES Football Observatory head Raffaele Poli is somewhat baffled by the number of high-value teams already out of contention for the Cup. “That is a big surprise, indeed. We are all astonished by these bad performances by some of the best players,” says Poli. “But then you have Messi, who scored twice yesterday (Wednesday), and Neymar also four times already. So it shows that not all the known footballers did perform badly.”

    The biggest World Cup upset so far has centered on defending champion Spain, estimated by CIES to be the most valuable team at $668 million. The country boasts a host of stars in CIES’s top 100, including Diego Costa, Sergio Busquets, and Juan Mata. But it was routed by Netherlands in its opening game and never recovered.

    England, a perennial underachiever in recent World Cups, disappointed again with a tepid display that saw it crash out after falling to Uruguay in its second match. The team, led by Wayne Rooney (valued at $58.6 million), includes 12 players in the top 100 and is considered the fourth most valuable team in the tournament, at $487 million. It didn’t make a whit of difference.

    Then there is Italy. The four-time World Cup winner was led by star striker Mario Balotelli, whose transfer value of $55.9 million places him among the world’s top 25 players. Balotelli was not a factor in the team’s decisive 1-0 loss to Uruguay on Tuesday. Uruguay is ninth on the most valuable list—more than half of that amount comes from the transfer value of forward Luis Suárez (though Tuesday’s biting incident might put a damper on things).

    To be sure, not all high-value players and teams have flopped. Germany, the second most valuable team at $540 million, is on pace to reach the knockout stage. Argentina, the third most valuable team, boasts the world’s most valuable footballer Lionel Messi, who alone garners a value of $317.6 million. That team has breezed through to the next stage. Meanwhile, tournament-favorite Brazil, which sits just below England on the CIES list and has been spurred on by four goals from $99.5 million Neymar, blew out Cameroon to advance.

    Still, this year’s tournament has been about the underdogs.

    Of course, any sports valuation has its drawbacks. The CIES method doesn’t account for teams like Costa Rica or the United States, neither of which include a single player in the top 100. Those teams have shown that success isn’t all about having big names on the roster. Costa Rica won out of a group that included England, Italy, and Uruguay, and the United States has a chance to advance out of a brutal group if it gets a draw on Thursday against Germany.

    “The value of a team could be more than the sum of its parts,” says Simon Chadwick, a professor of sport business strategy and marketing at Coventry University in England. “The financial valuation of a team doesn’t account for the more intangible aspects of [team] culture and dynamic,” Chadwick wrote via e-mail.