2014年上半年汽车业谁输谁赢？

    2014年上半年发生了很多出人意料的事，比如众议院多数党领袖埃里克•坎托丢掉了初选，美国足球队历史性地杀进了世界杯16强，新一季的《权力的游戏》（Game of Thrones）比上一季还要血腥。

    上半年也是汽车业奇峰迭起的六个月，很多结果都出人意料。今年经济大环境总体非常乐观，有些细分市场、品牌和汽车厂商的表现非常抢眼，但也有一些折戟沉沙的例子。尽管上半年接连遭遇了一连串召回事件，但通用汽车（General Motors）上半年的销量却超出了预期。相比之下，刚刚换了新帅的福特（Ford）则表现得差强人意。大多数豪华品牌的销量都有所加速，只有仍然处于恢复期的凯迪拉克（Cadillac）不升反降。另外，斯巴鲁（Subaru）交出了一份耀眼的成绩单，而Mini则表现不佳。

    在查看了销量数字、读过了马后炮式的分析文章之后，行业观察人士们面前仍然摆着一些令人感到矛盾、惊讶或不解的问题。

    销量：随着汽车年销量猛涨到1600万辆以上，而且今年很有希望成为2006年以来汽车卖得最火的一年，乐观已经成了汽车业的主流情绪。《汽车新闻》（Automotive News ）引用一位证券分析师的话称，2017年美国的汽车销量有望达到1800万辆。也有人认为，这一轮的汽车销售周期已经走到了顶峰，恐怕要歇一歇才能爬上更高的纪录。有些分析师还特别提到了时下越来越流行的车辆以旧换新贷款，有的能贷六七年甚至八年。

    召回：今年六月，通用汽车一共卖出了267,461台轿车和卡车，远远超过了此前的预期，也暂时平息了批评人士的口舌。貌似最近通用和其他厂商发出的一连串召回声明已经让新车买家形成了“召回疲劳”，反而不怎么往心里去了。另外，大多数涉及召回的车型都是旧款而非新款，也许也是没有影响到销量的原因之一。

    混合动力车型：据IHS　Automotive公司的分析师汤姆•利比介绍，从2009年开始，市面上的混合动力车型逐年递增，如今已经有多达47款在售，但它们的市场份额却没能实现同样迅猛的增幅。今年头六个月，混动车型的市场份额相比去年同期有所下跌，只是车型数量有所增长而已。虽然利比并没有说，但据我本人猜测，愿意为省几块汽油钱而多花很多钱买混动车的消费者可能没有此前人们预想的那么多。要想大幅促进混动车的销量，前提是汽油价格必须大幅提高。另外，现代（Hyundai）和福特也都承认他们标榜的混动车型的油耗其实是有水分的。

    皮卡：独立分析师沃伦•布朗尼指出，虽然2005年创下了皮卡销量的纪录，但今年的皮卡销售速度远远地超过了2005年，不过布朗尼并不认为皮卡销时不时还会保持三到四年的高速增长。他说：“不幸的是，我们并不接近上一次销量高峰时的经济状况。当年实际GDP的增长率平均超过3%，新建房屋超过1700间，当时的月薪水平使大型皮卡的爱好者也能够成为皮卡的买主。因此，我们要等到下一个销售周期——可能是2017年到2018年，才能超过2005年的销售高峰。”这对底特律三巨头来说不是并不是一个好消息，因为皮卡业务对“三巨头”来说都是重要的利润来源。

    细分市场：根据《汽车新闻》的计算，今年上半年，紧凑跨界车型（如本田CR-V）的销量上升了13%，达到110万台。中型家轿【如丰田凯美瑞（Toyota Camry）】的销量下降了3%，为130万台。话说起来，跨界和小型SUV到底是什么时候变成了最受欢迎的车型？

    The first half of 2014 has unfolded in unpredictable ways: House majority leader Eric Cantor lost a primary election, the U.S. soccer team made it to the Round of 16 in the World Cup, and “Game of Thrones” was actually bloodier than the year before.

    And so it went in auto sales: Many results were unexpected. In an overall economic environment that was surprisingly positive, some segments, brands, and manufacturers glistened while others faltered. Despite being battered by an epidemic of recalls, General Motors GM 0.53% posted better sales than expected, while Ford F 0.98% , celebrating the elevation of its new young CEO, fared worse. Sales of most luxury cars accelerated but Cadillac, a brand still in recovery, fell back. Subaru shined while Mini moped.

    After looking over the numbers and reading the post-game analyses, here are some contradictions, mysteries, and surprises that confronted industry observers from January to June.

    Sales: With sales running at an annual rate above 16 million cars and trucks and headed toward their best finish since 2006, optimism is the prevailing emotion.Automotive News quoted one securities analyst musing that sales might reach 18 million by 2017. Others believe that sales have peaked for this cycle and need to take a breather before heading higher. They pointed in particular at the growing popularity of six, seven, and even eight-year loans that could leave customers owing money when they go to trade in their old car for a new one.

    Recalls: GM sold 267,461 cars and trucks in June, far exceeding expectations and temporarily silencing its critics. It seems that the cascade of recent announcements from GM and other manufacturers has created “recall fatigue” among new car buyers. Besides, most of the recalled cars are older models that don’t show up in new car sales.

    Hybrids: The number of hybrid models has increased every year, from 2009 through this year—it now totals 47—but their market share has not kept pace, according to Tom Libby, veteran IHS Automotive analyst. Hybrid share in the first six months actually declined from last year, despite an increase in model count. Libby doesn’t say, but my guess is that the number of buyers willing to pay a premium for gas savings is shallower than expected and it will take another leap in gas prices to jump-start sales. Consumers may also be wary of hybrid mileage claims. Both Hyundai and Ford admit to publishing overly optimistic mileage claims for their hybrid models.

    Trucks: Pickup truck sales are well off the pace of their peak year in 2005, says independent analyst Warren Browne, and he doesn’t see them climbing up to their former levels for another three or four years. “Unfortunately, we are not close to past peak economic realities, when real GDP growth averaged more than 3%, housing starts were above 1.7 million units and monthly paystubs allowed large-pickup intenders to become consumers,” says Browne. “We are going to have to wait until the next sales cycle, probably 2017-2018, to surpass the 2005 sales peak.” That’s bad news for the Detroit Three, for whom pickup trucks are an outsize source of profits.

    Segments: Compact crossovers climbed another 13% to 1.1 million by Automotive News’ calculation (think Honda CR-V,) while midsize sedans shrank 3% to 1.3 million (think Toyota Camry). How long before these lines cross and baby SUVs become the most popular body style?