大众未来仍有收购菲亚特的可能

    菲亚特-克莱斯勒（Fiat Chrysler）和大众汽车（Volkswagen）发表简短声明否认正在进行并购协商，从而掩盖了推动这两家汽车公司向彼此靠拢的力量。那么这股力量能否强大到战胜对合并的阻力呢？

    大众汽车在美国市场遭遇了困境，而收购菲亚特-克莱斯勒可以迅速将大众在美国汽车市场的占有率从现在的4%提高到15%。菲亚特-克莱斯勒拥有奢侈品牌阿尔法•罗密欧（Alfa Romeo），大众曾经公开承认过对菲亚特-克莱斯勒的兴趣。此外，大众还能获得公羊（Ram）皮卡和Jeep品牌，从而帮助这家德国公司进一步实现2018年主导全球市场的目标。

    对菲亚特-克莱斯勒及其所有者阿涅利家族而言，将公司卖给大众的好处简单明了：能得到一大笔钱。根据目前的资本总额来看，公司的股票市值大约是120亿美元。至少一名以上分析师推断表示，大众若要完整收购菲亚特可能要花费400亿美元，包括承担菲亚特的债务。

    伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）的分析师在上周二发布的一份报告中表示：“我们相信这桩交易存在着一定程度的行业逻辑——也许更重要的是，存在着许多情感逻辑。”

    德国杂志《经理人》（Manager Magazin）本周表示，大众汽车的董事长费迪南德•皮耶希以及公司的控股股东保时捷家族已经与菲亚特的控股股东阿涅利家族进行了收购讨论。所有相关人员都否认了这一新闻——尽管业内在进行大型并购的初期，有时会歪曲真相。

    这些年来，欧洲的银行家已经得出了结论：阿涅利家族已经准备从畅销的汽车业务中脱身，同时保留法拉利（Ferrari）及其F-1赛车队。菲亚特汽车公司通过资产重组与菲亚特的其他工业公司分离，这为其于2009年并购破产的克莱斯勒公司创造了条件。

    菲亚特-克莱斯勒尽管眼下还没有财务危机，却也没有过多的盈利。为了实现其雄心勃勃的增长计划，公司必须筹集物质资本。在今年的晚些时候，新合并的菲亚特-克莱斯勒汽车股份有限公司（Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.）可能会进行首次公开募股。我们可以通过这次发行股票，看出资本市场究竟是否看好公司的发展前景。

    大众收购菲亚特-克莱斯勒能够获得种种好处是毫无疑问的，但这是否真的是一个好主意还得打个问号。根据伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）的计算，收购菲亚特-克莱斯勒将会在短期内降低大众汽车的每股股东收益。这也许不会让皮耶希感到有多困扰，虽然他现年77岁，却依然积极主动。不过其他股东可能不会像他这么着急。

    菲亚特-克莱斯勒中的克莱斯勒公司曾经经历过这样的事情。另一家德国公司戴姆勒集团（Daimler AG）于1998年收购了克莱斯勒。在无法实现其战略目标的情况下，戴姆勒于2007年将其卖给了瑟伯罗斯资本管理公司（Cerberus Capital Management）。考虑到大众的股东已经看过了这场闹剧，他们不想收购菲亚特-克莱斯勒也是情有可原。

    在搞清楚皮耶希是否决定收购，又将何时进行收购前，大众在提高自己在北美的存在感方面，还有很多要做。菲亚特-克莱斯勒在今年晚些时候的首次公开募股也许将暗示着并购事件的走向。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    Curt denials by Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen that they’re talking merger belie the forces pushing the two automotive companies toward each other. Are the forces strong enough to overcome some resistance to a combination?

    VW is stumbling in the U.S.; acquiring Fiat Chrysler would immediately boost VW’s share of the U.S. vehicle market to 15 percent from the current 4 percent. Fiat Chrysler owns the Alfa Romeo luxury brand, which VW has openly admitted coveting. VW would gain the Ram pickup brand and Jeep, helping the German company towards its goal of world domination by 2018.

    For Fiat Chrysler and its controlling Agnelli family, the advantage of selling to VW would be simple and straightforward: a big pile of money. The stock market values the company, according to its current capitalization, at about $12 billion. At least one analyst theorizes a buyout might cost VW $40 billion, including the assumption of Fiat’s debt.

    “We believe a deal has a degree of industrial logic—and, perhaps more importantly, a load of emotional logic,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a report published on Thursday.

    Manager Magazin, a German publication, said this week that Ferdinand Piech, the chairman of Volkswagen and a member of the company’s controlling shareholder, the Porsche family, had been in takeover discussion with Agnelli family, the controlling shareholders of Fiat. All involved denied the story’s accuracy—though in the early stages of big industrial mergers, the truth can sometimes be bent or stretched.

    For some years, European bankers have concluded that the Agnellis are poised to exit the mass-market automobile business eventually, while hanging on to Ferrari and its F-1 racing team. A recapitalization that separated the Fiat auto company from other Fiat industrial properties set the stage for the merger with bankrupt Chrysler in 2009.

    Fiat Chrysler, while not in immediate financial distress, isn’t particularly profitable and must raise substantial capital to fulfill its own ambitious growth plans. Later this year, a public share offering of newly-consolidated Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. is expected to take place. That share offering could be a signal of support—or lack of it—from capital markets for FCA’s growth prospects.

    Beyond the question of what advantage VW sees in owning FCA is one of whether it’s actually a good idea. According to Bernstein Research’s calculations, the cost of acquiring FCA would be dilutive to VW shareholders in the short term. That may not bother Piech so much, who at age 77 appears active if not spry. But he may be more eager than his fellow shareholders.

    The Chrysler part of FCA has been down this road before with another German acquirer, Daimler AG. Daimler bought Chrysler in 1998 and then sold it to Cerberus Capital Management in 2007 after failing to realize its strategic vision. VW shareholders could be forgiven for deciding that they have seen this movie before want no part of FCA.

    Until it becomes clear whether Piech is determined to proceed, and how quickly, VW still has plenty of work to do improving the brand’s North American presence. The FCA stock offering later this year could be a hint of things to come.