特斯拉是“终极动力股”吗？
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特斯拉（Tesla）正处在蜜运中。这家电动汽车公司的财富以不可思议的速度积聚，而投资者仍在热烈地追捧它。 看看这些： • 在美国股市整体被“踩下刹车”的情况下，特斯拉的股价还在一路狂飙。自今年年初至今，其股价已经上涨了80%，目前每股约262美元，接近该公司有史以来的最高值，市值达到320亿美元。 • 美国各州对特斯拉大献殷勤，希望在其计划投资50亿美元兴建的大型锂电池工厂选址中胜出。这家工厂有可能解决多达6500人的就业。加利福尼亚州就正在与内华达、亚利桑那、新墨西哥和德克萨斯等州展开竞争，而吸引该厂落户的条件据说是要给予5亿美元的支持。 • 特斯拉的积压订单达到2.26亿美元。到2014年之前，特斯拉的生产速度大约为每周1000台，也就是说这些订单需要30周才能消化完。 特斯拉表示，在该公司的展厅里，每平方英尺的面积带来的销售额是苹果公司（Apple）的两倍，而苹果目前被公认为是行业领军者。 这些利好消息为特斯拉带来了极为惊人的估值。一位名叫佐尔坦•班的特斯拉观察人士在金融网站“寻找阿尔法“（Seeking Alpha）上指出，特斯拉现在的估值，相当于它每年已经能够卖出几十万辆汽车，但实际上今年它只能卖出35,000多辆车。从另一个角度来说，特斯拉公司今年卖出的每一台车，估值相当于高达100万美元。 这意味着投资者正为特斯拉的未来前景投下重注，出价要远远高于对其他豪车厂商实际表现的评估。梅塞德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）的制造商戴姆勒（Daimler）去年售出了超过250万辆车，市值约为850亿美元。所以，尽管戴姆勒的销量是特斯拉的70多倍，但它的市值还不到特斯拉的3倍。 通常冷静的分析师们早已习惯了汽车行业的缓慢增长，但是遇到特斯拉，他们就丢掉了一贯的谨慎。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的分析师罗德•拉切给该股设定了310美元的目标价格。无独有偶，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的分析师亚当•乔纳斯也将特斯拉的目标股价定为320美元，并称它是“世界上最重要的汽车公司”。 在7月31日的分析师电话会议上，特斯拉的董事长兼CEO埃隆•穆斯克亲手给“特斯拉热”又添了一把柴。这次会议上爆出的“大新闻”并不是特斯拉第二季度产量再次提升并超过了收益预期。 而是穆斯克在会上表示，预计特斯拉到2015年底将实现10万台的年产量。 |
Everything is coming up roses for Tesla . The electric car company is enjoying an almost-unimaginable run of good fortune and is still being hotly pursued by investors. Consider: • At a time when the overall stock market is idling with the parking brake on, Tesla shares are on a tear. Since the beginning of the year, they have risen 80%. Currently at $262, the stock is selling at close to its all-time high and has a market cap of $32 billion. • States are falling all over themselves to be chosen as the site for Tesla’s proposed $5 billion Gigafactoryto produce lithium ion batteries. California is competing with Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, and the bidding for the factory, which could employ up to 6,500 people, is said to be up to $500 million. • Tesla has an order backlog of $226 million. At the production run rate of 1000 cars a week expected at the end of 2014, that translates to a 30-week backlog. • Tesla says it enjoys sales per square foot at its showrooms that are double that of Apple . The tech company is currently considered the industry leader. The valuation that all this good news is creating for Tesla is truly astonishing. A Tesla watcher named Zoltan Ban, writing in Seeking Alpha, figures that Tesla is already priced as if it sells several hundred thousand cars a year when in reality it will sell only about 35,000 in 2014. Another way of looking at this: At current prices, each car the company sells this year is valued at $1 million. In other words, investors are paying far more for Tesla’s future promises than today’s performance by other luxury car manufacturers. Daimler, the manufacturer of Mercedes-Benz, sold more than 2.5 million vehicles last year and has a market cap of about $85 billion. So, although it sells 70 times more vehicles than Tesla, its market cap is less than three times greater. Usually sober-minded analysts, accustomed to the auto industry’s slow growth, seem to shed their inhibitions when it comes to Tesla. Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank has attached a $310 price target on the stock. Not to be out-done, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley established a $320 price target and calls Tesla it the “most important car company in the world”. Fuel for this latest burst of Tesla mania came from none other than Chairman and CEO Elon Musk in comments he made during an analyst call on July 31. The big news wasn’t that Tesla reported higher production for the second quarter and beat earnings estimates again. Musk said he expects to be producing cars at a 100,000-a-year rate by the end of 2015. |
