祸不单行的麦当劳：俄罗斯之痛

    麦当劳（McDonald’s）最近可谓屋漏偏逢连夜雨。

    上个月，麦当劳在中国爆出食品安全丑闻，销量受到重挫；同时，美国本土的销售长期以来萎靡不振。而雪上加霜的是，这家全球最大的餐厅连锁店现在又面临新的经营威胁：由于美国以俄罗斯挑起乌克兰冲突为由对其实行制裁，俄罗斯采取了报复行动，这使得麦当劳成为遭殃的“池鱼”，其在俄罗斯的门店可能面临大规模停业。

    俄罗斯消费者权益保护部门Rospotrebnadzor周三表示，由于发现存在违反卫生管理条例的情况，将暂时关闭位于莫斯科黄金地段的四家麦当劳门店。随后，其它几个地区的管理部门也在周四效仿跟进，他们放消息给当地媒体，称未来几天内将进行大规模检查。不过，国际文传电讯社（Interfax）援引俄罗斯副总理奥尔加•戈洛杰茨的话称，当局没有关闭麦当劳在俄430家分店的“总计划”。

    那么俄罗斯对麦当劳到底有多重要呢？停业并不会对公司造成大的冲击，毕竟麦当劳在119个国家拥有13,600家分店。并且俄罗斯市场对其总营收的贡献还不到5%。

    但是，俄罗斯一直是麦当劳在欧洲为数不多的销量强劲的市场之一，当地连锁店占其欧洲总销售额的40%。比例如此之大，因此麦当劳过去5年几乎将俄罗斯的门店数量翻了一番。

    在2002至2013的年报中，麦当劳每年都把俄罗斯单独列为增长强劲的市场，包括过去5年里，俄罗斯分公司每年都能荣获欧洲业绩增长的“主要贡献者”称号，这一切都得益于开设新店和原有分店的销售激增。事实上，在普京任职期间，麦当劳在俄罗斯市场的业绩只有一次没有呈现强劲增长，这唯一的一次就是在今年早些时候。当时它曾警告投资者，称俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突可能使销售受到影响。（确实如此，该公司在俄罗斯的销售在第一和第二季度都呈现增长，但是在7月份出现了下滑。）

    “但这些不足影响公司的总体方针，”在提到对麦当劳业绩潜在的影响时，分析师R.J.霍托维向《财富》（Fortune）介绍。“与此同时，这仍是一个增长的市场，一个在各种风险中不断前进的市场。”

    让麦当劳能好受一点的因素之一是，俄罗斯只是其两大特殊市场中的一个，另一个是英国，其特殊之处在于大部分餐厅是麦当劳公司自己经营的自营店，而不是特许经营的加盟店。霍托维表示，这些自营门店的盈利不及加盟店，而麦当劳从加盟店那里仅收取利润分成。

    俄罗斯星期三关闭的餐厅中包括普希金广场（Pushkinskaya Square）的麦当劳餐厅，这也是俄罗斯最早、业务最繁忙的麦当劳餐厅。24年前，这家餐厅的开业一度成为冷战结束的标志性事件。

    麦当劳在一份声明中表示，“我们正在密切寻找指控的实际所指，并采取必要的措施尽快让餐厅对顾客重新开放。”声明中对于牵涉的政治背景只字未提。声明还写道：“我们将继续安置好员工，采取一切可能的措施，继续本公司在俄罗斯的成功经营。”（7月份，俄罗斯的消费者安全监管机构起诉麦当劳，禁止其部分最受欢迎的汉堡和奶昔出售，理由是麦当劳违反食品安全法规，营养成分标签有误。麦当劳方面则表示，当局已经批准其营养成分信息，“若干微生物指标”已经迅速纠正。）

    在这些纷扰尘埃落定之前，作为美国商业象征的麦当劳将发现自己不可避免地搅入俄罗斯与西方的冲突之中。不过，如果这些餐厅最终重开，生意将迅速反弹。

    正如霍托维总结的，“大品牌总是有办法恢复元气的”。（财富中文网）

    McDonald’s just can’t catch a break these days.

    On top of a food safety scandal that slammed its China sales last month, and chronic sales softness in the U.S., the world’s largest restaurant chain is facing a new threat to its business: a possible mass shutdown of its restaurants in Russia in what appears to be a retaliatory move following U.S. sanctions on the country for its role in stoking the Ukrainian conflict.

    Russia’s consumer protection bureau Rospotrebnadzor said Wednesday it would temporarily close four restaurants in prime locations in Moscow after finding violations of sanitary regulations, and several regional authorities followed suit on Thursday, telling local media they would launch mass inspections within days. The news agency Interfax, however, quoted deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets as saying there was no “total plan” to shut down the company’s 430 outlets in Russia.

    So how important is Russia to McDonald’s? A shutdown would not have a major impact on the company, which operates 13,600 stores in 119 countries, after all. And the Russian market contributes less than 5% of total operating profit.

    But Russia has been one of McDonald’s few reliably strong markets in Europe, where the hamburger chain generates 40% of its overall sales. So much so that McDonald’s has roughly doubled its Russian store count in the last 5 years.

    In each annual report between 2002 and 2013, McDonald’s singled out Russia as a strong market, including a fewshootouts in each of the last five years as a “major contributor” to its European results growth, thanks to expansion and soaring sales at existing restaurants. In fact, the only time during the Putin era McDonald’s identified its performance in Russia could be anything but strong was earlier this year when it warned investors that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could hurt sales. (Sure enough, sales declined in Russia in July, after rising in first and second quarters.)

    “It’s not enough to move the needle,” R.J. Hottovy told Fortune, in reference to a potential hit to McDonald’s results. “At the same time it’s a growth market and comes on the heels on a bunch of scary things.”

    One of the factors mitigating the pain to McDonald’s is that Russia is only one of two markets, including Britain, where most restaurants are company-operated rather than franchised. Such locations are less profitable than franchised ones, where McDonald’s simply gets a cut of the sales, Hottovy said.

    The Russian restaurants closed Wednesday include the one just off Pushkinskaya Square, the company’s oldest and busiest branch in the country, whose opening 24 years ago was a symbolic landmark event at the end of the Cold War.

    McDonald’s said in a statement that “we are looking at the substance of the allegations to work out what measures are needed to open our restaurants to visitors as soon as possible.” It made no reference to the political backdrop and said “we will continue to take care of our employees and do everything possible to continue our company’s successful work in Russia.” (In July, Russia’s consumer-safety regulator sued McDonald’s, aiming to ban some of its popular burgers and milkshakes, pointing to alleged food-safety violations and mislabeled nutrition information. McDonald’s said authorities had approved the nutritional information and that “certain indicators of micro-organisms” had been corrected immediately.)

    Until the contretemps is resolved, McDonald’s, a symbol of American business, finds itself in the crossfire of Russia’s conflict with the West. But business should recover quickly if and when those restaurants ultimately re-open.

    “The brand always finds a way to bounce back,” Hottovy said.