思科CEO钱伯斯的退休疑云

    上周四晚间，甲骨文公司（Oracle）突然宣布，创始人拉里•埃里森将卸任CEO。埃里森担任该职位已有37年，以后他将担任该公司执行董事长兼首席技术官，萨夫拉•卡茨和马克•赫德将出任思科公司联席CEO。年届七旬的埃里森，是科技领域迄今为止任职时间最长的首席执行官，不过，担任首席执行官数十年之久的，并非只有埃里森一人。

    1995年1月，思科公司（Cisco）首席执行官约翰•钱伯斯开始掌舵这家位于加利福尼亚州圣荷西的网络公司，在他的领导下，思科创造了互联网历史上最辉煌的业绩之一，并跻身《财富》美国500强之列（1997年位列第332名），其市值超过1000亿美元（1998年），2000年甚至一度成为世界上最有价值的公司（估值约5500亿美元）。后来，网络泡沫破灭，市场形势急转直下。

    2012年，钱伯斯表示他将在两到四年内退休，并指定开发和销售部总裁罗伯特•劳埃德、现场运营高级副总裁查克•罗宾斯以及服务部高级副总裁艾德扎德•奥弗比克作为继任者候选人。正因如此，不久前，人们在等待思科发布最新盈利报告时，怀揣着特别的焦虑和期待。那天（8月14日）离钱伯斯的65岁生日只有9天。思科在发布财务业绩时，是否会发布有关继任的消息？

    当然，那天没有发布关于领导层更替的消息，再次击破传言。一直以来这种传言不胜枚举，甚至可以追溯到十年前。多年以来，一直有消息称钱伯斯即将退休，但时间证明每次都是谣言。这次也不例外，尽管有消息称思科将裁员数千人。

    思科发言人向《财富》表示：“约翰一直说，下一次他提到继任问题时，他就会宣布继任者人选。这一点没有变过。”

    但是，有两件事情发生了变化。首先，钱伯斯现在65岁了，在很多公司，掌门人到了这个年龄都会被强制退休。第二，调研公司Gordon Haskett发布的一份报告仍预计钱伯斯即将宣布退休，称思科是“一家没有指定接班人的公司”。

    首席执行官的平均任期大约是8年。钱伯斯已担任该职位近20年。他是如何做到的？他还能干多久？

    On Thursday evening, Oracle announced to much surprise that founder and CEO Larry Ellison will step down from his long-held post. He’ll become executive chairman and CTO, ceding the top spot to SafraCatz and Mark Hurd after 37 years. Ellison, 70, is by far the longest-serving chief in tech, but he’s hardly the only one whose time at the top can be measured by the decade.

    Cisco CEO John Chambers took the helm of the San Jose, Calif.-based networking company in January 1995 and presided over one of the great runs in the industry, pushing the company onto the Fortune 500 list (#332, in 1997) and past a market capitalization of $100 billion (1998) to become, for a brief moment in 2000, the most valuable company in the world (at about $550 billion). Then the market’s bottom fell out in the dot-com bust.

    In 2012, Chambers said that he expected to retire in two to four years, naming development and sales president Robert Lloyd, field operations SVP Chuck Robbins, and services SVP EdzardOverbeek as possible successors. For this reason, an unusual amount of anxiety and breathless anticipation accompanied Cisco’s most recent earnings report. The date, August 14, was just nine days before Chambers’ 65th birthday. Could investors expect succession news with the financial results?

    It came and passed with little leadership news, of course—another debunked retirement rumor in a long line of them that stretches back well over a decade. Chambers’ retirement has been “imminent” for years, yet the test of time has shown each and every rumor to be greatly exaggerated. This one was no exception, despite news of thousands of layoffs.

    “John has consistently said that the next time he talks about succession is when he announces succession,” a company spokesman tells Fortune. “This has not changed.”

    Two things have changed, however. First, Chambers is now 65, the symbolic age that at many companies would mandate retirement. Second, the research firm Gordon Haskett issued a report stating that the firm still expects Chambers to announce his retirement soon, calling Cisco “a company operating without a named successor.”

    The average tenure of a CEO is roughly eight years. Chambers has been in the role for almost 20. What has allowed him to buck that trend—and how much longer can he last?