硅谷正经历新一轮互联网泡沫？
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随着科技业初创公司的总估值达到惊人的180亿美元，有一个问题始终挥之不去：现金充盈的硅谷是否正在经历另一场泡沫？上周四晚，在旧金山的“40位40岁以下商界精英”的聚会上，《财富》（Fortune）咨询了其中五位科技专家对此的观点。他们的回答也许会让你吃惊。 马克•贝尼奥夫 Salesforce.com首席执行官 “这不是科技泡沫，而是世界史上最大的创新浪潮。这是云、社交网络、移动性和联网产品结合而产生的一股难以想象的强大力量。” “最好的一个例子就是苹果支付(Apple Pay)，我今天还用了它。我去沃尔格林（Walgreens）买药，把手机对准惠尔丰（Verifone）收款机，利用苹果支付完成了一笔交易。苹果支付是一个很棒的新平台，会催生许多新公司。它将会引领一波新的基础设施投资浪潮，所有的销售终端系统都需要替换。此外，这对苹果公司（Apple）来说也具有巨大的推动作用。” “你可以把这看成我们行业的一个隐喻：一些本不存在的东西转眼就出现了，然后就改变了一切。所有的一切都在改变，从未有过如此有趣的时代。” 乔•杰比亚 房屋租赁服务商Airbnb公司联合创始人兼首席产品官 “这一切都是个循环，对吧？只要看看过去60年的股市就知道了，这其实是一个循环。但我们目前没有遭遇科技泡沫，因为科技公司正在获取收入。我认为现在和14年前发生的事情是有区别的。如今的公司正在赚取真金白银。” 杰斯•李 Polyvore公司首席执行官和共同创始人 “我确实认为我们遭遇了科技泡沫。有太多公司没有商业模式或没有可持续的商业模式。让我颇为自豪的是，我们有自己的商业模式，但我认为接下来行业该有一定的调整了。” 杰伊•西蒙斯 Atlassian公司董事长 “我相信现在看好市场的人非常多。无论有没有泡沫，我认为人们都很乐观。看看市盈率吧，除2000年以外，这是自1940年以来的最高值。” 约什•泰特里克 Hampton Creek公司首席执行官 “我不认为有泡沫。我觉得很多事情的好处和坏处都被夸大了。我认为，无论是对这种发展感到兴奋，还是由于现在的情况很像过去的互联网泡沫而感到沮丧，都是人之常情。最终，衰退总要来的，但我认为它来得不会这么快。 从我的角度和我们的工作来看，我认为关于泡沫的议论太多了。但是那（某种航向修正）在一年半之内不太可能出现。我们一直跟沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）、塔吉特百货（Target）和全食超市（Whole Foods）等客户保持接触，试图了解他们对当今局势的看法和理解，最后得出了这样的结论。看起来形势是有些不太对头，但现在说泡沫还为时尚早。”（财富中文网） 译者：严匡正 |
With startups fetching valuations as high as $18 billion, one persistent question remains: Is cash-laden Silicon Valley in the throes of another bubble? Fortune sought out five tech folks at last night’s 40 Under 40 party in San Francisco on Thursday night for more insight. Their answers may surprise you. Marc Benioff CEO, Salesforce.com “It’s not a tech bubble. It’s the biggest wave of innovation in the history of the world. It’s a combining of unbelievable forces of cloud, social networks, mobility plus connected products. A great example of that is Apple Pay, which I’ve been using today. I went to Walgreens, I put my phone right up against the Verifone receiver, and I did a transaction on Apple Pay. Apple Pay is an amazing new platform. It’s going to help create new companies. It’s going to create a new wave of infrastructure investments where all the point-of-sale systems are going to have to be replaced. And then it’s a huge accelerator for Apple. You can just think of that as a metaphor happening in our industry for something that one day doesn’t exist, and the next day it does and how it can change everything. Everything is changing, and there’s never been a more exciting time.” Joe Gebbia Chief product officer and co-founder, Airbnb “It’s all cyclical, right? Just take a look at the stock market over the last 60 years. There’s a cycle involved. But we’re not in a tech bubble because companies are making revenues. And I think that was a major difference between what’s happening right now and what’s happening 14 years ago. Companies today are making real money.” Jess Lee CEO and co-founder, Polyvore “I do think we’re in a bubble. There are too many companies with no business model or no sustainable business model. I’m proud that we have one, but I think there’s going to be some kind of correction.” Jay Simons President, Atlassian “I believe there’s a lot of optimism in the market right now. Whether there’s a bubble or not a bubble, I believe people are just optimistic. Look at the fact that the PE [price-earnings] ratio is the highest it’s been since 1940 with the exception of 2000.” Josh Tetrick CEO, Hampton Creek “I don’t. I think a lot of things are overstated on the good and the bad. And I think it’s just human nature to get excited about things and to get too depressed when it looks like something. Eventually, there will be a downturn, but I don’t see it coming any time soon. I think from my perspective and what we’re doing, I think there’s so much noise about there being a bubble. But that [any sort of course correction] is more likely than not to be a year-and-a-half off. And that’s a result of all the customers we’re dealing with from Wal-Mart to Target to Whole Foods and just trying to get a sense of how they’re thinking and just understanding their environment. Feels like it’s a bit off. But it’s not now.” |
