中国依赖煤炭发展的真实代价：每年67万人死于污染

    由清华大学副教授滕飞主持的一项调查显示，近20年来中国经济飞速发展所引发的最严重的副作用是污染问题：中国14亿人口中超过70%生活在污染级别高于国家规定标准的环境中；其中，超过10%的人生活在有害颗粒浓度10倍于世界卫生组织安全标准的环境中。

    此项研究报告强调，当前严峻的污染和健康问题刻不容缓，引起了国内对工业排放问题的广泛讨论。相比之下，西方国家已经开始关注长期气候变化的影响。这项调查无疑向政府敲响了一记警钟：中国必须改变经济发展的方向，不再倚重能源密集型和出口导向的制造业。

    作为排放污染最严重的化石燃料，煤炭占中国主要能源供应量的三分之二以上。虽然中国政府已经开始尝试采取一些措施，以减少对煤炭的依赖，例如禁止在东部较为发达的地区开采新矿，但是根据美国官方的预计，到2040年煤炭仍将占中国能源供应总量的50%以上。

    这份调查为人们提供了更多依据来呼吁政府采取更多措施，提高整治速度。据《南华早报》（South China Morning Post）报道，滕飞建议将现有的燃煤排污费提高5到10倍，以体现煤炭的真实成本。

    该调查发现，2012年，与污染中悬浮微粒，特别是2.5微克以下的悬浮粒子（俗称PM2.5）有关的四大病症——中风、肺癌、冠心病和慢性阻塞性肺病导致的过早死亡约为67万例。

    《南华早报》援引北京大学公共卫生学院的李国兴（Li Guoxing——音译）的观点称，实际数字可能还要高得多。

    “因为我们的研究数据有一定局限性，调查报告中的健康成本是根据过早死亡人数来测算的。”李国兴指出，“如果将慢性病的医疗成本也算进去，这个数字还要高得多。”

    调查发现，2012年有超过70%的中国人生活在PM2.5年均值高于国家健康空气质量基准（每立方米35微克）的环境中；其中1.57亿人生活在PM2.5年均值超过每立方米100微克的环境中，这一数字是世卫组织发布的空气质量建议标准的10倍。

    据中国煤炭工业协会（China National Coal Association）统计，今年前九个月国内煤炭消耗总量为30.3亿公吨，同比下降1.2%。而据新华社报道，国内煤炭产量下降至28.5亿吨。（财富中文网）

    译者：南风

    审校：Patti

    A new study has revealed the staggering cost of China’s dependence on coal to power its economy: 670,000 deaths in one year alone.

    The study, by Tsinghua University associate professor TengFei, lays bare the extent of the country’s pollution problem that is the darkest side effect of the country’s rapid growth over the last 20 years: over 70% of China’s 1.4 billion population are exposed to pollution levels above national regulatory norms, and over 10% are exposed to concentrations of harmful particles 10 times the level considered safe by the U.N.’s World Health Organization.

    The study underlines how immediate and pressing pollution and public health issues are driving the discussion in China over industrial emissions, in contrast to considerations of long-term climate change prevalent in the West. It’s also a powerful reminder of why Beijing is trying to re-orient its economy away from energy-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing.

    Coal, by far the “dirtiest” of the major fossil fuels in terms of emissions, accounts for over two-thirds of China’s primary energy supply. Although Beijing has taken tentative steps to reduce its importance, such as banning the development of new coal mines in the country’s more developed eastern provinces, coal will still be over 50% of total energy supply even in 2040, according to official U.S. estimates.

    Teng’s study will strengthen the arguments of those pressing the government to do more, faster. Teng suggested that taxes on coal need to be raised between five and ten times to reflect the real cost of burning it, according to the South China Morning Post.

    The study found that tiny particulate pollutants, especially those smaller than 2.5 micrograms (known as PM2.5), were linked to 670,000 premature deaths from four diseases – strokes, lung cancer, coronary heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease – in China in 2012.

    But the actual cost is probably far higher, the SCMP quoted Li Guoxing of Beijing University’s School of Public Health as saying.

    “The health cost [of the study] is only based on the premature death figures due to the limitations of our research data,” said Li. “It could be way higher if we also include medical costs for other chronic illnesses.”

    The study found that in 2012, more than 70% of the population was exposed to annual PM2.5 pollution levels higher than 35 micrograms per cubic meter, the country’s benchmark for healthy air quality. And 157 million people lived in areas where the annual PM2.5 concentration was higher than 100mcg/cubic meter – 10 times the WHO’s recommendation.

    According to the China National Coal Association, the country’s coal consumption totaled 3.03 billion metric tons in the first nine months of this year, down 1.2% from a year earlier. Domestic production fell to 2.85 billion tons, according to the Xinhua News Agency.