中国设法驯服煤炭野兽

    上周，中美就限制二氧化碳排放达成重大协议，这在应对全球气候变化方面是一个里程碑式的外交事件。理论上，世界上最大的两个二氧化碳排放国最终同意就此采取行动将为明年的联合国气候变化峰会带来积极影响。按照协议，到2025年，美国的温室气体排放量将比2005年下降26-28%；到2030年，中国将实现温室气体排放零增长。不过，问题在于，这些目标能否真的实现。

    美国方面，中期选举增强了共和党的实力。该党成员将阻止美国政府试图履行协议中的自方责任。即将担任参议院环境和公共工程委员会（Senate Environment and Public Works Committee）主席的俄克拉荷马州共和党参议员吉姆•英霍夫（Jim Inhofe）将中美之间的这份协议称为“毫无约束力。”

    就履行这份双边协议而言，中国面临的并非是政治难题，而是结构性挑战：简而言之，要降低温室气体排放增速，中国就必须压缩煤炭行业规模。而煤电约占中国目前发电量的四分之三，这绝不是一项轻而易举的工作。

    但中国政府必须采取行动，因为这个雾霾笼罩下的国家无法再安于现状。而这份气候协议正是中国应对污染危机宏图大略的一部分。

    就在中美宣布签署协议前几天，知名学府清华大学两名研究人员所发布的一项报告显示，燃煤引发的空气污染每年都会造成约67万人过早死亡，这再次突出了中国严重依赖煤电所付出的代价。清华大学副教授腾飞指出，中国每生产一吨煤，就会产生286元人民币的环境和健康成本。而据世界煤炭协会（World Coal Association）的数据显示，2013年中国生产了近40亿吨煤炭。

    上述研究成果出炉前，世界卫生组织（World Health Organization）曾于2011年在医学杂志《柳叶刀》（The Lancet）上发表报告称，2010年有120万中国人死于各种空气污染引发的疾病。同时，中国还是世界上死于矿难人数最多的国家：2013年有1049名生产人员死于煤矿事故，虽比上年下降了23%，但仍远高于世界其他国家。

    就在经济增速放缓造成中国电力需求下降之际，体现煤炭污染环境的证据越来越多，这给30年来一直以稳定增长著称的煤炭行业带来了供给过剩危机。在中国产煤大省山西，山西财经大学环境法教授曹霞认为：中国在煤炭资源管理方面以及在煤炭行业发展史上已经到了“一个非常关键的时刻。”

    中国煤炭行业规模庞大，煤炭产销量几乎和全球其他地区的总和相当。除了在国内造成的直接影响，这个行业产生的温室气体排放还给整个世界带来了间接成本。除非中国削减煤炭消费量，否则任何应对气候变化的国际性方案都无法获得成功。

    费格斯•格林（Fergus Green）和尼古拉斯•斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）在向伦敦气候变化经济和政策中心（Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy）提交的研究报告中写道：“中国在今后10年采取的行动对中国和全球的未来都很关键。在这10年里，中国能否实现创新和可持续的低碳增长将或多或少地决定中国的长期经济前景……也将决定全世界的温室气体减排幅度是否足以应对气候变化带来的重大风险。”

    This week’s landmark agreement between the U.S. and China on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide marks a significant diplomatic milestone in the struggle against global climate change. The fact that the two largest sources of CO2 have finally agreed to do something about it should, in theory, give a boost to next year’s United Nations climate summit. Whether the actual terms of the deal—which calls for the U.S. to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28%, compared to 2005 levels, by 2025, and for China to cap its emissions by 2030—have a realistic shot at being met is another question.

    On the U.S. side, Republicans emboldened by the midterm elections will work to block any attempt to fulfill America’s side of the bargain, which Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe, of Oklahoma, soon to be chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, called “a non-binding charade.”

    China’s challenge in meeting the terms of the bilateral agreement are not political but structural: simply put, to reduce emissions growth, China must reduce the size of its coal industry, which supplies some three-quarters of China’s electricity. That is no easy task.

    But Beijing must take action, because the smog-choked nation can hardly stick with the status quo. The climate deal is part of a larger strategy to address China’s pollution crisis.

    The costs of China’s heavy reliance on coal for power generation were highlighted again days before the deal with President Obama was announced, when a pair of researchers at the prestigious Tsinghua University released a study showing that around 670,000 people die prematurely every year as a result of air pollution from coal. Every ton of coal produced in China adds more than 286 yuan ($46) in environmental damage and health costs, reported Teng Fei, an associate professor at Tsinghua University. China produced nearly 4 billion tons of coal in 2013, according to the World Coal Association.

    The Tsinghua study follows a 2011 report by the World Health Organization, published in The Lancet, that estimated that 1.2 million people in China died in 2010 from diseases related to all forms of air pollution. China also has by far the deadliest mining industry in the world: One thousand forty-nine coal miners died in accidents in 2013, down 23% from the year before but still far more than any other country.

    Mounting evidence of coal’s environmental damage comes as China’s slowing economy has reduced demand for electricity, creating an oversupply crisis for an industry that has known nothing but steady growth for the last three decades. China has reached “a very critical moment in the management of its coal resources, and in the history of the coal industry,” says Cao Xia, a professor of environmental law at Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, in China’s coal heartland, Shanxi Province.

    The direct, domestic impacts of the nation’s massive coal industry, which produces and consumes about as much coal as the rest of the world combined, are added to the indirect, worldwide costs in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. No international program to combat climate change can succeed unless China slashes its burning of coal.

    “The actions China takes in the next decade will be critical for the future of China and the world,” wrote Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern in a research paper for the Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy, in London. “Whether China moves onto an innovative, sustainable, and low-carbon growth path this decade will more or less determine both China’s longer-term economic prospects … and the world’s prospects of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficiently to manage the grave risks of climate change.”