沃尔沃与特斯拉力争跻身豪华品牌第一梯队

    经济学家通常会遵守一条老规矩：做预测时，要么给个数字，要么给个日期，但不能两个都给。但汽车业的高管们却经常忽略这条法则。就以沃尔沃（Volvo）和特斯拉（Tesla）为例，这两家公司的名字很少会被拿出来相提并论，但是他们在设置未来的销售目标时都缺乏谨慎，这或许会给他们带来大麻烦。

    经过多年的浮浮沉沉，沃尔沃被新东家中国吉利汽车（Geely Motors）收购后，正在重新构建产品线。沃尔沃不想再被认为只是一家旅行车制造商，而是着眼于成为一个货真价实的豪华车厂家，与其他顶级豪车品牌平起平坐。

    它的目标雄心勃勃，激进，甚至可以说大胆。现任CEO哈肯•萨缪尔森于2009年从慕尼黑卡车制造企业MAN公司跳槽至沃尔沃，在近日接受《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）采访时，萨缪尔森意外地给沃尔沃的复苏设置了非常大胆的目标，其中包括：

    • 到2016年，使沃尔沃在美国市场的年销量恢复到10万台以上；

    • 3至4年内，进入“全球豪车品牌的精英梯队”；

    • 到2020年，全球销量达到80万台。

    There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the auto industry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvo and Tesla TSLA -1.82% , two companies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.

    After years of drift, Volvo Cars is trying to rebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. No longer content to be solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvo has set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.

    Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort to reach them is CEO Håkan Samuelsson, who came to Volvo from Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:

    • A return to annual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;

    • Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three to four years;

    • Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.

    哪怕沃尔沃能实现这些目标中的任何一个，萨缪尔森都会被瑞典人奉为神灵（沃尔沃的总部依然在瑞典）。但即使有吉利的支持，沃尔沃也仍然没有足够的规模、深度和资金来对高端车市的领头羊们形成现实的挑战。在沃尔沃靠边站的这几年，汽车行业的竞争变得更加激烈了，更何况沃尔沃现在几乎是从头开始。

    沃尔沃的目标基本上在公众视野之外，但特斯拉设定的雄伟目标则不是这样。该公司CEO埃隆•马斯克可能已经在Twitter上向全世界广而告之。在去年卖出约2万辆的基础上，他宣称到2020年，他要把美国市场的销量提高10倍以上——25万辆，全球销量则要达到50万辆。我们将在稍后探讨这个目标的可能性。

    If Volvo can hit just one of those targets, Samuelsson would be honored like a Norse god back in Sweden where Volvo’s headquarters remain. But even with Geely’s backing, Volvo doesn’t have the scale, depth, or wherewithal to make a serious challenge to the industry’s upscale leaders. Competition in the car business has only tightened in the past several years while Volvo has been sidelined, and it is starting anew from well back in the pack.

    While Volvo’s targets have mostly been set out of the public eye, the same can’t be said about the sales goals facing Tesla Motors. CEO Elon Musk might as well have tweeted his to the world at large. From around 20,000 cars sold last year, he has let it be known that he wants to be selling more than ten times that number—250,000—in the U.S by 2020, and 500,000 worldwide. We’ll take a longer look at his chances further on in this column.