410亿美元：Uber估值飙升的背后

    打车应用服务公司Uber目前估值已经达到410亿美元。我们发现这家公司自2009年成立以来，是由风投支持的初创型企业中增值最快的一家，超过了Facebook、谷歌（Google）、亚马逊（Amazon.com）和云计算服务供应商Salesforce.com。本月早些时候Uber宣布了新一轮融资消息，公司估值在成立5.93年后达到410亿美元，在市场中脱颖而出。在同一阶段，Facebook的估值约为320亿美元，谷歌的估值则刚刚超过30亿美元。

    但这样的估值并不能保证Uber成为下一个持久的超级巨星。但如果该公司能将快速攀升的价值用于提高扩张速度，它就真的有可能击败竞争对手Lyft，并将业务延伸到个人交通领域之外。Uber可以进一步将其范围扩大到快递、物流以及其他相关市场。当然，Uber面临的挑战也与日俱增，比如和地方政府的法律纠纷，再比如涉嫌不尊重女性的糟糕公关，所有这些都可能对其发展和品牌产生不利影响。此外，Lyft等对手正在奋起直追；而且，随着基于智能手机的点对点（P2P）交通服务市场继续扩大，必将出现更多竞争者。不过，虽然存在这些问题，但在如此巨大的领先优势和增速之下，除非Uber犯下大错误，才会在这个新兴领域的王者争夺战中落败。

    伴随Uber成长的有两大趋势。首先，就所有2009年以来成立并且获得风投支持的科技初创公司来说，其价值上升速度与10年前相比快了三倍。作为衡量公司价值增速的指标，“市值形成速度（time to market cap）”的提升已经成为现代初创企业的一项主要优势，因为它们可以用前所未有的速度筹集到巨额资金。最新一轮融资过后，Uber已经在这场速度较量中成为冠军。

    其次，新兴的市场看来都由一家公司主导，特别是在科技领域。Uber最新估值提升的部分动力来自该公司在海外的迅速扩张，但这也体现了全球按需交通服务市场的不断扩张和由此带来的需求，以及今后几年Uber在这个领域的统治地位。

    我们倾向于把Uber称为“细分类之王”，即那些定义了一个全新市场，并大力开拓，占据市场主导地位的公司。Airbnb就在按需租房领域扮演着这样的角色。在基于云技术的客户关系管理服务市场，Salesforce.com也是如此。2000年以来成立而且市值达到10亿美元的公司有80家左右，其中一半都是“细分类之王”。它们的价值超过了本领域其他公司的价值之和，而且往往占据所在市场中所有公司总市值的70%以上。

    显然，人们在评估Uber的价值时，认为其所统领的新领域将远远超越出租车服务。举例来说，投资者就看到了Uber车辆的按需递送的潜力。除非Uber自毁前程，否则Lyft和Sidecar这样的竞争对手就只能生活在其阴影之中。如果Uber能证明自己在一个大范围扩张的新领域居于王者之位，该公司创纪录的估值就应该属于合理水平。

    本文作者艾尔•拉马丹、克里斯托弗•罗克海德和戴夫•彼得森是Play Bigger Advisors公司联合创始人。这家总部位于旧金山的咨询机构致力于指导科技公司高管如何打造市场领先的公司。该公司和这三位合伙人均未向Uber、Lyft、亚马逊或Salesforce.com投资。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：Vera Han

    At $41 billion, Uber has become more valuable more quickly than any other start-up we’ve seen in recent years — faster than Facebook FB 2.03% , Google GOOG 0.43% , Amazon.com AMZN 0.50% and Salesforce.com CRM 0.29% , according to our analysis of VC-backed start-ups founded since Uber was created in 2009. Earlier this month when the taxi service announced a round of financing that gave it a $41 billion valuation at 5.93 years old, Uber set itself apart. At the same stage, Facebook was valued at about $32 billion, while Google was just over $3 billion.

    Uber’s valuation does not guarantee it will be the next long-term superstar. But if the company can use its rapidly rising valuation to accelerate its expansion, it has a real shot at both beating its competitor, Lyft, and growing beyond personal transportation. Further, it can expand it’s services — potentially to delivery, logistics, other adjacent markets. To be sure, Uber is facing an ever increasing amount of challenges, from legal battles with local governments, to bad PR for the way it portrays women, all of which could hamper its growth and damage its brand. Additionally competitors like Lyft are nipping at its heals and more will surely come as the market for smart-phone powered point-to-point transportation expands. Despite these problems, Uber’s lead is so large and its value has grown so quickly, it would have to stumble badly to lose the battle for supremecy in this new space.

    This comes amid the development of two important trends. First, among all VC-backed technology start-ups created since 2009, the rate at which their values have risen is three times faster today compared to just a decade ago. This increase in “time to market cap”, the measures how quickly companies increase in value, has become a major advantage for modern startups as they are able to build massive financial war chests at speeds never seen before. With this latest financing Uber has become the time to market cap champ.

    What’s more, it appears that new markets are being dominated by one company, especially in tech. Uber’s latest valuation is partly driven by how quickly the company is expanding abroad, but it also reflects demand for a growing global market for on-demand transportation, and Uber’s dominance in this category for years to come.

    We like to call Uber a “Category King” — companies that define, develop and dominate new markets. Airbnb is doing that in on-demand rentals. Salesforce.com did it in cloud-based CRM. Of the 80 or so $1 billion companies founded since 2000, half are Category Kings. They are more valuable than all the other companies in their categories combined. These firms routinely take more than 70% of the total available market cap of their market.

    Uber is clearly being valued as the king of a new category that stretches way beyond taxi rides. Investors see potential in on-demand delivery from Uber vehicles, for instance. Unless Uber screws up, its competitors, such as Lyft and Sidecar, will fade into the background. If Uber truly proves to be the Category King in a vastly expanding new category, it’s record valuation will seem rational.

    Al Ramadan, Christopher Lochhead and Dave Peterson are co-founding partners at Play Bigger Advisors, a San Francisco-based firm that coaches technology executives to build market-leading companies. Neither the firm or its partners have investments in Uber, Lyft, Google, Amazon.com or Salesforce.com.