索尼“刺杀金正恩”，还是刺杀自己？

    由于受到黑客的严重威胁，塞斯•罗根、詹姆斯•弗兰科主演的芯片《刺杀金正恩》（The Interview，又名《采访》）将无法如期在电影院内与观众见面，至少近期上映无望。

    本周三，索尼影业（Sony Pictures Entertainment）宣布取消《刺杀金正恩》原定的首映式。这是继数周前该公司被黑客入侵电脑系统后，发生的又一起戏剧性事件。不久前，该公司内部电子邮件遭到故意泄露，之后几家全美最大的影院遭到威胁，决定撤出放映计划。

    声称对上个月攻击索尼影业负责的“和平卫士”（Guardians of Peace）黑客组织周二再次发出威胁，扬言将对所有放映《刺杀金正恩》的影院采取一系列暴力袭击。索尼投拍的喜剧电影《刺杀金正恩》讲述了一个刺杀朝鲜领导人金正恩的虚构故事。（周三，美国政府官员表示，怀疑此次网络攻击的幕后黑手可能是朝鲜黑客，但朝鲜方面已予以否认。）

    周三，帝王娱乐（Regal Entertainment）、AMC娱乐（AMC Entertainment）、卡麦克院线（Carmike Cinemas）和加拿大Cineplex Entertainment以恐怖威胁为由，一致决定推迟放映这部电影。据报道，喜满客影城（Cinemark）也作出了类似的决定。这些是美国五个最大的院线公司，在美国和加拿大共拥有两万多块大屏幕。

    该片原定于下周圣诞节首映，由于担心届时可能会被美国大多数电影院拒之门外，索尼影业不得不放弃原定的上映计划。该公司在一份声明中表示，“我们对某些人如此厚颜无耻地打压一部电影的上映感到非常难过，在这一过程中，他们肆意伤害索尼影业、我们的员工以及美国民众的利益。我们力挺我们的电影工作者，支持他们自由表达的权力，同时对电影无法上映这一结果表示极度失望。”

    那么，索尼影业究竟会受到什么样的影响？

    据报道，《刺杀金正恩》的制作成本超过4,000万美元，其中支付给影片联合编剧兼主演罗根840万美元，支付给另外一名主演弗兰科650万美元。（两位主演的薪酬数据来自于黑客事件后泄露的众多数据之一。）当然，该数字还不包括公司原本为影片推广准备的数千万美元——现在这部分估计可以省了。

    如果索尼选择完全取消《刺杀金正恩》的上映，而不是推迟，那么公司将很难收回成本。综艺杂志《Variety》12月17日的报道称，索尼影业正考虑完全绕过电影院，通过付费视频点播的方式发行该影片，此举可使索尼尝试一种新的发行方式，而不用担心激怒已经通过上映《刺杀金正恩》的影院。

    即使考虑到由于黑客和威胁造成带来的宣传效果（虽然他们宁愿不要），索尼影业能够通过观众的家庭直接点播《刺杀金正恩》获得多少销售收入依然很难说。最近一些电影已经开始提供点播并获得一些成功，但这些电影依然是在电影院上映。今年早些时候，反乌托邦动作大片《雪国列车》（Snowpiercer）颇受好评，前两个月通过点播获得的收入喜人，甚至超过了在局部地区影院上映时的票房收入。但根据Deadline网站的数据，该影片当时通过点播获得的收入仍然只有650万美元，另外450万美元来自票房收入。

    不过，业内此前预测《刺杀金正恩》的收入本可远远超过1,100万美元。跟踪票房收入的网站Box Office Mojo预测，该片的总票房收入大约将为9,000万美元。这是与之前的罗根-弗兰科喜剧片比较得出的预测结果，比如2013年的《世界末日》（This is the End）票房收入为1亿美元，以及2008年的《菠萝快车》（Pineapple Express）票房收入约为8,700万美元。

    索尼影业的一名发言人向《财富》（Fortune）补充说明：“索尼影业对该片没有进一步的发行计划。”

    现在，索尼影业可以支持假日电影季的主要上映影片只剩下一部：重拍的音乐剧《安妮•纽约奇缘》（Annie），该片将在本周上映。到目前为止，索尼影业出品的电影在假日季已获得1.29亿美元的收入（假日季收入一般会超过好莱坞年度票房收入的20%），而去年假日季的收入为3.22亿美元。《刺杀金正恩》的预期票房收入原本可以帮助索尼缩小与往年的收入差距。

    从全年来看，索尼影业的总销售收入增长约11.5%，这使其成为在2014年实现年度增长的为数不多的主流电影公司之一。整个电影业的销售收入与2013年相比减少了5.5%，好莱坞正寄望于成功的假日电影季，以便其年内总收入至少能突破100亿美元——这是自2008年以来，每年电影业都达到的标志线。Box Office Mojo的最新数据显示，整个行业距离该目标还差3亿美元，而现在离1月份仅剩寥寥数周，这意味着遭受《刺杀金正恩》票房损失冲击的，将不仅仅是索尼影业。（财富中文网）

    译者：南风

    审校：Patti

    Seth Rogen, James Franco, and The Interview will not be coming to a theater near you. Not anytime soon, anyway.

    Sony Pictures Entertainment’s decision on Wednesday to cancel the comedy film’s planned opening represents just the latest in a series of dramatic events that started a few weeks ago when hackers breached the studio’s computer system. It was soon followed by those apparently responsible releasing Sony’s internal e-mails and the nation’s largest movie theater owners deciding against showing the movie.

    On Tuesday, a note purportedly written by Guardians of Peace, the hackers who claimed to be behind last month’s cyber attack, suggested a possible series of violent attacks at any cinema screening The Interview — a Sony comedy that portrays an assassination plot against a fictional version of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (U.S. government officials said Wednesday that North Korea was likely behind the cyber attack, although the country has denied any involvement.)

    Regal Entertainment, AMC Entertainment, Carmike Cinemas and Cineplex Entertainment all confirmed on Wednesday that they were postponing the release of the film due to the threat, while Cinemark reportedly made a similar decision. Those companies are the country’s five largest movie theater operators and they control more than 20,000 screens across the U.S. and Canada.

    Faced with the likelihood that The Interview would find itself locked out of a large chunk of the country’s theaters when it made its Christmas debut next week, Sony opted to scrap the theatrical release altogether. “We are deeply saddened by this brazen effort to suppress the distribution of a movie, and in the process do damage to our company, our employees and the American public,” Sony said in a statement. “We stand by our filmmakers and their right to free expression and are extremely disappointed by this outcome.”

    So, where does that leave Sony?

    The Interview reportedly cost the company more than $40 million to make, including $8.4 million to Rogen, who co-wrote and stars in the film, and another $6.5 million for Franco, the film’s other leading star. (Their salaries were among the reams of data leaked in the wake of the hack.) Of course, that figure doesn’t even include tens of millions of dollars the company would have earmarked for promoting the film — some of which it will likely save now.

    If Sony opts to cancel the release of The Interview altogether — rather than postpone it — then the company will obviously have a difficult time recouping its expenses. Variety reported today that Sony is considering circumventing theaters altogether and giving the film a premium video-on-demand release, which would give Sony a chance to experiment with a new release method without fear of angering the movie theater operators that have already passed on The Interview.

    It is difficult to say how much money Sony could make by selling The Interview on demand directly to viewers’ homes, even with the added (though not necessarily welcome) buzz around the movie as a result of the hack and threats. Some recent films have been made available on-demand – garnering some success – while they are still in theaters. Earlier this year, the critically-acclaimed dystopian action flick Snowpiercer made more through on-demand in its first two months than it did in a limited theater-run. But the film still only pulled in $6.5 million on-demand in that time and another $4.5 million in theaters, according to Deadline.

    The Interview was expected to bring in far more than $11 million, though. Box Office Mojo predicted gross ticket sales of around $90 million for the movie. That’s compared with past Rogen-Franco comedies like 2013’s This is the End, which pulled in $100 million, and 2008’s Pineapple Express, which made about $87 million.

    A Sony Pictures spokesman issued this additional statement to Fortune: “Sony Pictures has no further release plans for the film.”

    Now, Sony Pictures is left with just one major release to bolster its holiday movie season: the remake of the musical Annie, which hits theaters this week. So far, Sony Pictures’ films have pulled in $129 million during the holiday season — a period that generally accounts for more than 20% of Hollywood’s annual ticket sales — compared to $322 million during last year’s holidays. The Interview’s expected ticket sales certainly would have helped Sony make up some of that ground.

    For the full year, Sony Pictures’ gross sales are up about 11.5%, which actually makes it one of the few major studios to post a year-to-year gain in 2014. The movie industry in general has seen sales to this point decline 5.5% from 2013 and Hollywood is counting on a successful holiday movie season to reach at least $10 billion in total gross for the year — a mark the industry has met every year since 2008. Box Office Mojo’s latest numbers show the industry more than $300 million away from that goal with just a few weeks left before January, which means The Interview‘s lost ticket sales could be a blow to more than just Sony.