风投：2015年五大趋势

    每年，我都会从风投资本家的角度做出一系列预测，目的是对来年进行务实的展望和预测。许多人都在谈论泡沫，各行各业的企业都在不断迅速扩张和创新。在这种情况下，我对将在2015年产生重大影响的五大趋势进行了预测，具体如下。

    1. 物联网将不再那么侧重于“物”：2015年属于软件，而不是硬件。去年，硬件领域的并购活动热火朝天；但我预计，明年物联网战场将转移至软件行业。我还认为，硬件物联网在很大程度上终将转变为一种商品。智能手表领域已经出现了这样的情况，苹果公司（Apple）、FitBit和其他一些制造商都在重点关注类似的功能和产品的商品化。对于2015年，我的预测是物联网软件和服务将占据中央舞台。

    2.在线教育的价值将逐步上升：在线教育正处于真正的转折点，而且将加速发展。就在这个月，斯坦福商学院（Stanford’s Graduate School of Business）的在线教育投资迈上了一个新台阶——该学院针对企业高管推出了一门完全通过互联网教授的课程。市场研究机构Global Industry Analyst估算，2015年在线教育市场的规模将达到1070亿美元，这个数字在短短三年之内翻了一番。许多老牌教育机构现在都推出了网络课程，Udemy*、Coursera、Lynda和PluralSight等刚刚涉足这个领域的企业则借助创新模式取得了难以置信的发展。即使这些公司的估值上升到“独角兽”级别（10亿美元）并以更快的速度增长，我也不会感到意外。

    3.新一代网络市场的价值将超过苹果公司：Marketplaces 2.0主题将在风投界大行其道。估值极高的公司，比如P2P融资平台LendingClub*（36亿美元）、房屋租赁网站Airbnb（4月份估值100亿美元）和订餐网站Grubhub（4月份估值19亿美元），都已进行了大规模融资。Minted*和Udemy等新生力量已经有能力挑战Craigslist和eBay等老一代网络市场，并成为后者真正的竞争对手。我相信，包括Etsy、LendingClub、Udemy、Minted、Grubhub、Zillow和Airbnb在内所有主要网络企业的市值将在5年内接近甚至超过现在的苹果公司——这还没有把阿里巴巴集团（Alibaba）计算在内。这种态势将催生Marketplaces 2.0时代，从而提高风投回报水平并改善就业市场状况。

    4.纳斯达克走势将趋平……这没关系：2014年，投资者们在自己的博客里大谈特谈纳斯达克指数（NASDAQ index），主题是“泡沫”。实际上，对于2015年，我认为该指数的走势将相对平稳，甚至可能略有下跌。不过，2015年的真正问题在于市场波动。这种司空见惯的现象对早期风投不会有很大影响，但可能会降低市场对潜在首发上市公司的热情。尽管如此，一些不错的企业仍将在2015年开展首次公开募股，只是上市的门槛会很高。在我看来，这是一件好事，它能以非常温和的方式压缩人们所认为的资产泡沫，这要比泡沫彻底破裂好得多。虽然人们可能认为此举将带来不利影响，但我觉得这是2015年的一个有利因素，而且可能是保持高质量IPO市场健康和稳健的必要条件。

    5.印度将回归人们的视野，巴西将达不到目标：对国际和新兴市场风投来说，2015年将属于印度。过去几年中，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国互联网企业的增长和成熟都非常引人注目，其中一些公司还在2014年首发上市。阿里巴巴当然证明了中国在这方面的成就。印度的大选结果非常有利，应该有助于提振市场信心，并让印度在2015年繁荣发展。很多不错的印度科技企业都将利用这一有利环境。可以关注的公司有Flipkart、Snapeal、Quikr*和Yatra*。另一方面，巴西在总统选举和政治局势方面就不像印度那么幸运。我预测2015年巴西将陷入困境。同时，今后几年印度可能出现一些重大IPO。因此，国际风投界对印度的关注程度可能重新有所提升。

    总之，2015年对关键地区和行业的发展来说很重要。不过，如果企业无力应对震荡所带来的影响，那么市场波动和泡沫论有可能让企业在2015年一筹莫展。（财富中文网）

    塞尔吉奥•蒙萨尔维是硅谷风投公司Norwest Venture Partners的合伙人，专注于投资早期以及成长型电子商务、消费型软件即服务、消费金融和教育科技公司。本文中标注*的公司则表示该公司获得了Norwest Venture Partners的投资。

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：李翔

    Each year I compile a list of predictions from a venture capitalist perspective—with the goal of providing a practical look into what to expect in the year ahead. With a lot of talk around a bubble and with companies in all sectors continuing rapid-scale and innovation, below are five mega-trends I anticipate will make a big impact in 2015.

    1. The Internet-of-Things will be less about the things:In 2015, it will be about the software, not the hardware. Last year we saw feverish M&A activity in hardware but, next year, I expect to see the IoT battleground shift to software. I also predict that hardware IoT will prove out to become much more of a commodity. We already are seeing some of this played out in the smartwatch world with Apple AAPL -0.07% ,FitBit and others focused on matching features and commoditized offerings. In 2015, I expect IoT software and services to take center stage.

    2. Online education will graduate to higher valuations:Online is at a true inflection point and will accelerate. Just this month, Stanford’s Graduate School of Business took its investment in online education to a whole new level by announcing that a new program for company executives will be delivered entirely by way of the Internet. According to Global Industry Analyst, online education in 2015 will reach $107 billion, which will represent a doubling in just three years. There are many incumbent institutions now offering online curriculum, and several newer companies with innovative models making incredible progress like Udemy*, Coursera, Lynda and PluralSight. I wouldn’t be surprised if these garnered “unicorn” valuations and grew even faster.

    3. New generation of marketplaces will surpass value of Apple:“Marketplaces 2.0” is a theme that will thrive as a mega-venture category. We witnessed major financing including sky-high valuations from LendingClub* ($3.6 billion), Airbnb ($10 billion in April) and Grubhub ($1.9 billion in April). Emerging marketplaces like Minted and Udemy are now real contenders capable of challenging the last generation of marketplaces like Craigslist and eBay. I believe that within just five years, the public valuations of all major online marketplaces like Etsy, LendingClub, Udemy, Minted*, Grubhub, Zillow Z -0.31% , and Airbnb will together approach and perhaps surpass Apple’s valuation today, and that is not even counting Alibaba BABA 0.03% . This dynamic will give way to the birth of the “Marketplaces 2.0” era, which could drive venture returns and improve employment markets.

    4. The NASDAQ willflatline… and that’s okay:In 2014 the NASDAQ index created a massive amount of chatter in the investor blogosphere around talks of a “Bubble.” For 2015, I actually expect the NASDAQ to be relatively flat and may even be slightly lower. However, the real issue we will face in 2015 is volatility. This lackluster performance in 2015 will not affect early-stage venture as much, but it may put a more moderate tone to potential IPO’s. Having said that, great companies will continue to IPO in 2015 but the bar will be high. I see this as a very nice and gentle way to let “air out” of a perceived asset bubble, and much better than having a complete burst. While this may be viewed as negative, I view this as a positive in 2015 and perhaps necessary to keep a healthy and robust market of high-quality IPO’s going.

    5. Bollywood is back; Brazil misses the goal:For international and emerging market ventures, 2015 will be the year of India. Brazil, Russia, India, and China all had been developing and maturing very impressive Internet properties in the last few years, and we saw some of those hit the IPO market in 2014. Alibaba certainly proved that for China. India had a very positive election, which should bolster confidence and allow the country to thrive in 2015. There are many great technology companies there that will take advantage of this positive landscape. Companies like Flipkart, Snapeal, Quikr* and Yatra* are companies to watch. On the other hand, Brazil was not as lucky as India in terms of its Presidential election and political landscape. I predict that Brazil will struggle in the coming year. Meanwhile, we could potentially see some major India IPO’s in the coming years. As a result, there will be some increased and renewed attention on India from the global venture community.

    Overall, 2015 will be an important year for progress in key geographies and sectors. However, volatility and talk of bubbles will make this a potentially difficult year for those who may not have the stomach for fluctuations.

    Sergio Monsalve (@vcserge) is a partner with Norwest Venture Partners, where he focuses on early-stage and growth investments in e-commerce, consumerized SaaS, consumer finance and educational technologies. Companies marked with * in this post are NVP portfolio companies.