CES：4K电视将成为主流

    电视行业曾经推广过许多所谓的“下一代重磅产品”。2010年，3D电视被吹得天花乱坠，然而很快就失败了。

    两年后，各大电视厂商又开始集中推广4K电视，也就是超高清电视，但种种情势似乎昭示着历史将很快重演。

    但2014年出现了一个有趣的转折。4K电视开始站稳脚跟。专家们现在表示，这项技术也许将不负众望。

    高德纳研究公司消费电子产品首席分析师保罗•奥多诺万表示：“4K是电视的新兴标准。我认为4K电视的年产量还需要过几年才能超过全高清电视，但我预计这个期限不会超过7到10年。”

    研究公司SandlerResearch赞同这一观点，该公司预计，到2018年底，4K电视市场的年均增长率将达到106.84%。

    三星公司电视产品营销事务副总裁比尔•李表示，4K电视去年的出货量为80万台，三星预计这一数值将在2015年翻两番。

    4K电视的视觉分辨率是高清电视的4倍，可以营造不可思议的画面效果。然而，迄今为止的问题在于高昂的价格（2012年，4K电视的均价高达7,851美元），而对于那些愿意花钱购买的消费者来说，4K节目的缺乏也是一个严重问题。

    但这些问题从去年开始逐渐得到解决。而且在2015年，这种趋势似乎仍会继续。

    去年9月，Vizio公司推出了售价不到1000美元的P系列4K电视，大大拉近了这种产品与平板电视的价格差异，后者的平均售价为450美元。竞争对手也迅速降低了各自产品的价格。在今年的CES消费电子展上，许多电视机厂商在推出新型高档4K电视的同时，预计也将推出低价版本的4K电视。

    与此同时，Netflix和亚马逊开始为顾客提供4K节目，Netflix正在推出《纸牌屋》和《绝命毒师》等热门电视剧的超高清版本，而亚马逊则在即时视频服务中加入了《哥斯拉》和《美国骗局》等电影的4K版本。

    与此同时，康卡斯特公司已经与三星达成合作协议，开始为三星电视提供4K节目。在接下来几个月中，该公司还计划向所有4K电视提供内容服务。

    颇具讽刺意味的是，4K电视的持续成功也许取决于智能手机的发展。要知道，智能手机就是那个让人们的注意力不断离开电视的小设备。

    奥多诺万表示：“手机摄像头拥有比全高清电视更高的分辨率。现在没有人愿意出去购买一部200万像素的照相机，但这恰恰是全高清电视目前具备的最高分辨率。当我们从标清电视升级到高清电视时，许多人说‘谁需要高清电视？’但现在没人愿意再去看标清电视了。所以，我们将从高清电视升级到超高清电视，这是自然而然的进步，即便这种升级只是为了跟上手机摄像头分辨率的发展速度。”

    与此同时，4K电视厂商已经同包括迪斯尼和Netflix在内的内容创造商成立了一个名为超高清联盟的新组织，计划为4K内容及其传输建立标准。

    三星公司显示屏业务执行副总裁H. S. 金在宣布联盟结成时表示：“这将会改变行业规则，对消费者而言尤其重要。”

    从现实世界的角度来看，这将意味着更好看的4K节目，反过来会吸引更多消费者接受这项技术。奥多诺万指出，卫视公司也能借机吸引订户，因为他们不太为带宽所限。（Dish Network似乎已经准备利用这一趋势了，该公司在消费电子展上推出了一款将在今年晚些时候上市的4K机顶盒。）

    三星的比尔•李说：“电视业正在集结起来支持超高清电视。我认为现在是前所未有的完善超高清品质的好时机。”（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    There are a lot of next big things in the television industry. In 2010, it was 3D, which promptly flopped.

    Two years later, the talk began to focus on 4K/ Ultra High Definition (UHD) sets – and it quickly began to look like history was about to repeat itself.

    But a funny thing happened in 2014. 4K/UHD began to carve a foothold. And now experts say the technology may, in fact, live up to the hype.

    “4K is the emerging standard for TVs,” says Paul O’Donovan, principal analyst of consumer electronics at Gartner. “I think it will take some years for the annual number of 4K TVs manufactured to outnumber the total of full HD models, but I would expect that to happen within the next 7 to 10 years.”

    SandlerResearch agrees, estimating 4K sets will have an annual growth rate of 106.84 percent through 2018.

    Bill Lee, vice president of television product marketing at Samsung, says the television industry shipped 800,000 4K/UHD sets last year – and Samsung expects to see a four-fold increase to that number in 2015.

    The sets, which boast four times the visual resolution of today’s high definition sets, certainly boast an incredible image. The problem up until now, though, was the high cost (with a whopping $7,851 price point in 2012) and the lack of 4K content for people willing to spend that amount.

    Both of those problems began to resolve themselves last year. And the trend looks to continue in 2015.

    Viziolaunched its P-series of 4K sets in September for under $1,000, bringing the sets much closer to the flat-panel average of $450. Competitors quickly cut the prices of their own sets– and at this year’s CES, many manufacturers are expected to introduce lower-cost versions of their own 4K sets alongside their new premium models.

    Meanwhile, Netflix NFLX -1.71% and Amazon AMZN -2.28% began streaming 4K content to customers, with Netflix offering ultra high definition versions of hits like “House of Cards” and “Breaking Bad” and Amazon adding 4K streaming to its Amazon Instant Video service, including films like “Godzilla” and “American Hustle.”

    Comcast, meanwhile, has partnered with SamsungSSNLF 13.64% to delivery 4K content to its sets – and plans to expand the offering to all 4K sets in the coming months.

    The increasing success of 4K/UHD sets may be tied, ironically, to a device that’s better known for drawing people’s attentions away from their TVs – the smartphone.

    “Mobile phone cameras have higher resolution capability than … full HD TVs,” says O’Donovan. “Nobody would go out today and by a 2 megapixel camera, yet that is the highest resolution available in current full HD TVs. It’s like when we moved from standard definition TVs to HD TVs, lots of folks said ‘who needs HD?’ Well we wouldn’t go back to SD now, and so we will move on from HD to UHD, because it is a natural progression if only to keep up with the resolution of cameras in our phones.”

    Meanwhile, 4K/UHD TV manufacturers and content creators, including Disney DIS -0.53% and Netflix, have established a new coalition called the UHD Alliance that plans to set standards for 4K content and delivery.

    “This is a game changer – most importantly, for consumers,” said H.S. Kim, executive vice president of Samsung’s displays business, in announcing the alliance.

    In real world terms, that could mean better looking 4K/UHD content – which could, in turn, lure more consumers to the technology. It could also be an opportunity for satellite companies to increase subscribers, notes O’Donovan, since they’re less constricted by bandwidth availability. (Dish Network seems ready to capitalize on this, announcing at CES a 4K set-top box that will become available later this year.)

    “The industry is rallying behind UHD,” says Samsung’s Lee. “I think now is the time, more than ever, to make sure the quality of UHD is refined.”