一张图看懂油价低了哪个国家获益最大

    菲律宾会欣喜不已；而挪威，很不幸，将面临一段艰难时光。

    这就是牛津经济研究院的两项发现。该机构最近正在研究低油价对世界经济的影响，而且认为自己已经找到了答案。

    牛津经济研究院这篇报告名为《石油百科》。它的开篇写道：“本报告的作用正如题目所示，旨在让人们全面地了解油价下跌所能带来的影响。”作者写道，如果有人在这篇报告里找不到自己想要的东西，他们将很乐意提供这篇共17页、含有11个变量的数据表（我拿到了这份资料，它确实很全面）。

    本文顶端的那张图便来自于这篇报告中的数据，它反映了低油价事件中损失最大以及获利最多的国家。对世界上大多数国家来说，油价低是件好事。大多数国家都会受益。而且许多受益国目前就可以对此加以利用，比如法国、巴西和中国。同时，俄罗斯、沙特以及挪威（没错，是挪威）的处境相当严峻。不过，就算合在一起，受损国在全球经济中的比重也不大。

    要说明一下，这张图体现的是2015年的情形，而且其前提是油价为每桶40美元。也就是说，该油价比当前的水平更低一些，而且需要在这个价位上保持一段时间。同时，为什么菲律宾的表现会大大超出其他国家，我们很难给出理由。我询问了一位参与此项研究的经济学家，他也解释不了。的确，菲律宾不是产油国，或者说石油产量不高；它还是个岛国，得靠进口来满足国内需求。然而，按照牛津经济研究院的模型，低油价给另一个岛国日本带来的益处就非常少。

    对此，其中的一个解释是，该机构考虑了油价对货币政策的潜在影响。油价滑坡会带动通胀下行，菲律宾有可能借此下调利率（目前为4%）。日本的利率已经低得不能再低，因此通胀的减轻不会有什么提振作用。此外，发展中国家的效率较低，因此相对于其人口而言，菲律宾的石油需求较高。

    因此，我们在看待这些数据时应持保留态度。但该报告的主题似乎是准确的，那就是总的来说，油价下跌后全球局势看起来相当好。

    那么，市场为何如此排斥油价下跌呢？油价下降造成的损失集中在石油和天然气行业，或者说受损企业一般都是大型公司。很明显，埃克森等公司将受到打击。同时，低油价的有利影响覆盖了整个消费领域。至于哪些公司将从中受益，我们很难给出定论。此外，牛津经济研究院的模型并未考虑可能出现的金融危机。也就是说，如果集中在俄罗斯身上的问题影响到了其他金融市场，就像1998年那样，麻烦就可能变大。

    这项研究还表明，市场的负面反应有过度之嫌。实际上，油价下降可能为美国贡献了近1%的GDP，并有可能让美国的经济增长率提高0.25个百分点。这是件好事。然而在目前，市场似乎忽略了这一点。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：李翔

    The Philippines is going to crush it. And Norway, unfortunately, is in for some hard times.

    That’s just two of the findings from research firm Oxford Economics, which recently set out to determine what cheap oil would mean for the world’s economy. And they think they figured it out.

    Oxford’s report is titled “Oil-ipedia!” and says at the top, “This note does what it says on the tin—it provides much of what you need to about the impact of oil price declines.” And the authors write that if you don’t see what you want, they will be happy to send you their 17-page, 11-variable spreadsheet. (I’ve got it. It’s comprehensive.)

    The chart at the top of this article is from data in the report and it looks at what countries will lose and gain the most from cheap oil. For most countries around the world, cheap oil is a good thing. Most countries benefit. And many of the countries getting a boost could use it these days: France, Brazil, and China. Meanwhile, the pain in Russia, Saudi Arabia, and, yes, Norway, is pretty severe. Still, even combined, the net losers do not make up a large part of the world’s economy.

    Some caveats: This chart is based on what will happen in 2015 if oil is at $40 a barrel. So prices would have to drop a bit more from their current levels and stay there for a while. Also, it’s hard to determine why the Philippines does so much better than everyone else. I asked one of the economists who worked on Oxford’s research, and he couldn’t explain. Yes, the Philippines doesn’t produce oil, or a lot of it, and it’s an island nation that has to import what it wants. But Japan, another island nation, gets a very little boost from low oil prices in Oxford’s model.

    One explanation is that Oxford includes the effect that oil prices could have on monetary policy. Lower oil prices would cause inflation to drop and potentially allow the Philippines to lower its 4% interest rate. Japan’s interest rates are already as low as they can go, so no boost from lower inflation there. What’s more, developing nation’s are less efficient, so the Philippines has a greater demand for oil relative to its population.

    So, take the data with a grain of salt. But the general thesis appears to be accurate: A world with lower oil generally looks pretty good.

    Then why have markets reacted so negatively to the drop in oil? The losses from lower oil prices are concentrated in the oil and gas sector and generally among larger companies. And it’s pretty clear that Exxon XOM 1.01% and some others are going to take a hit. Meanwhile, the gains from low oil prices are spread out to consumers everywhere. Which companies will benefit is harder to determine. And Oxford’s model doesn’t factor in potential financial crises. So, if Russia’s concentrated problems boil over, as they did in 1998, to other financial markets, then you could see wider problems.

    Oxford’s research also suggests that the markets appear to be overreacting negatively. In fact, lower oil prices could add nearly 1 percentage point to U.S. GDP, potentially increasing growth by a quarter. That’s a good thing. Right now, the market seems to be ignoring that.