苹果的市值到顶了吗？

    本周早些时候，苹果（Apple）成为首家市值超过7000亿美元的美国公司。2014年下半年，苹果公司的销售额猛增，iPhone 6成为该公司最成功的产品。苹果似乎在许多领域正突飞猛进：收购了耳机厂商Beats，推出了新的流媒体音乐服务，并发布了万众期待的智能手表。

    然而，尽管科技巨头苹果正一切顺风顺水，但有新的迹象表明，该公司可能容易受到来自于竞争对手的打击。据彭博（Bloomberg）报道，电动汽车制造商特斯拉汽车公司（Tesla Motors ）从苹果挖走了150名员工。在竞争激烈的技术界里，挖人不足为奇，但一下子被特斯拉挖走了150名雇员，为苹果敲响了警醒。这并不意味着苹果这家标志性企业陷入了困境，只是表明苹果要更加积极创新，才能保持领先地位。

    问题在于，市场调研公司IDC汇总的数据显示，虽然苹果的最大业务板块——iPhone和iPad系列产品——的市场份额仍然处于较高水平，但在2012年四季度至2014年四季度期间，下滑了约2％，降至20％。

    此外，庞大而诱人的中国市场，拥有5.5亿智能手机用户。而电子商务巨头阿里巴巴最近进入了手机行业，这可能对苹果手机在中国市场热卖造成威胁。阿里巴巴拥有高额营销资金、广受欢迎的在线销售平台，以及如何在中国市场经营的第一手资料，可能对苹果形成极大的竞争压力。

    这意味着苹果不能自满。尽管新款iPhone因屏幕尺寸更大而大获成功，但与上一代产品相比，并无太大不同。除了一些小的改进外，iPhone 6几乎与iPhone 5S一模一样，而iPhone 5S又与其上一代产品大同小异。这对苹果而言是一个大问题。

    为了维持自身地位，苹果不能简单地对现有热门产品稍作改进或升级，而是需要创造出真正改变人们生活和工作方式的新产品线。初代iPhone的妙处在于，它不同于当时的其它所有产品，更重要的是，它彻底改变了人们与手机的关系。通过打造简洁的界面，并将手机变成一台小型电脑，苹果公司得以脱颖而出，并重新定义了整个市场。当尘埃落定，苹果成为当之无愧的市场霸主。

    确实，苹果在智能手机和平板电脑领域的强敌——三星（Samsung）也在丢失市场份额，但这对苹果起不到什么安慰作用，因为谷歌（Google）的Android操作系统继续主导市场，而Windows手机也即将从苹果iOS手中攻城掠地。除非苹果再次开发出将改变整个科技界，乃至人类活动方式的产品，否则，它可能会成为又一家江郎才尽的企业巨头。

    对苹果粉丝而言，所幸的是，有迹象表明该公司已经认识到了这一点。

    本周，苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克在高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）的科技与互联网大会（Technology & Internet Conference）上发表演讲，谈到该公司正在采取若干举措，将其业务范围拓展到现有产品线之外。新产品包括苹果iOS操作系统在家居、汽车以及个人健康市场的应用；利用智能手表来管理我们的生活；正在广泛普及并大大简化了消费者移动支付过程的苹果支付（Apple Pay）系统；以及能使苹果功能在多台设备上实现无缝衔接的多设备交互工具 Continuity。

    其中，最具颠覆性的可能是苹果智能手表和苹果支付。曾经，智能手表只不过是电影《至尊神探》（Dick Tracy）中的幻想，如今，该产品是智能手机技术的进一步微型化，真正做到了将移动电话、音乐、健康和健身跟踪、移动支付、智能设备控制以及其它诸多功能结合在一起，在小小的一块腕表上实现。通过苹果支付，用户能安全存储自己所有的信用卡号码，而支付时，只需在读取器前挥动手机，因而不用再随身携带钱包。虽然这并不是一项新技术，但苹果系统的简便性，似乎正令其在商家和消费者中流行起来。

    周四，亿万富翁投资者卡尔•伊坎在自己网站上发表公开信，预测苹果公司的市值可能逼近1万亿美元。这是否能实现还不好说。苹果能否经受住来自于市场上众多竞争对手的挑战，这一点只有靠时间来证明。苹果只要能戒骄戒躁，就会蓬勃发展。（财富中文网）

    本文作者Sanjay Sanghoee是一位商业评论员，曾在Lazard Freres和Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein等投行以及对冲基金Ramius Capital任职。Sanghoee拥有哥伦比亚商学院的MBA学位。他未持有苹果、阿里巴巴、三星、谷歌或微软的股份。

    译者：Hunter

    审稿：Sissi

    Earlier this week, Apple became the first U.S. company with a market value above $700 billion. Its sales soared in the second half of 2014, and the iPhone 6 has been its most successful product. With the acquisition of headphone maker Beats, the creation of a new streaming music service, and particularly the highly anticipated release of its smart watch, the company seems to be charging ahead on many fronts.

    Despite all that’s going right, however, new signs indicate that the tech giant could be in a vulnerable spot against competitors. Tesla Motorshttp://fortune.com/company/tsla/, the electric carmaker, has reportedly poached 150 employees from Apple, according to Bloomberg. This is not a surprise in the competitive world of technology, but the scale of Tesla’s talent grab should be a wake-up call for Apple. That doesn’t mean the iconic company is in trouble, just that it needs to innovate aggressively to stay on top.

    The problem is that the market share for Apple’s largest business segment — the iPhone and iPad family — while still high, declined by about 2% between the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2014, ending at 20%, according to data compiled by market intelligence firm IDC.

    In addition, the popularity of the company’s phones in China, a large and attractive market with 550 million smartphone users, could be threatened by the recent entry of e-commerce behemoth Alibaba into this segment. With lots of cash on its balance sheet for marketing, a popular online sales platform, and first-hand knowledge of how to navigate the Chinese market, Alibaba could give Apple a run for its money.

    What this implies is that Apple can’t afford to become complacent. Even though the new iPhone has been wildly successful due to its larger screen size, it’s not dramatically different from its predecessors. Other than minor improvements, the iPhone 6 is almost identical to the iPhone 5S, which in turn is similar to the model before it. That is Apple’s big problem.

    In order to maintain its position, Apple can’t afford to simply tweak or upgrade its existing line of popular products. It needs to create new lines that truly change the way we live and work. The beauty about the original iPhone was that it was unlike anything else at the time and, more importantly, it revolutionized our relationship with mobile phones. By creating a powerfully simple interface and turning the phone into a mini computer, Apple was able to differentiate itself and redefine the market. When the dust settled, it was Apple’s market.

    To be sure, Samsung, a big competitor in the smartphone and tablet space, is also losing market share, but that’s cold comfort as the Google Android operating system continues to dominate the market and Windows phones threaten to take market share from Apple iOS. Unless Apple develops something that will once again change the world of technology, and indeed the way humans function, it could wind up being just another corporate giant whose greatest achievements lie behind it.

    Luckily for Apple fans, there are signs that the company gets this.

    In his address at the Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference this week, Apple CEO Tim Cook hit on several initiatives that his company is undertaking to expand its footprint beyond its tried and tested product lines. This includes the application of its iOS to the home, car, and personal health markets, the utility of the smart watch in managing our lives, the Apple Pay system that is becoming ubiquitous and simplifies the mobile payment process for consumers considerably, as well as Continuity – which enables Apple features to work seamlessly on multiple devices.

    Of these, possibly the most disruptive are the smart watch and Apple Pay. The watch, once only a Dick Tracy fantasy, is a move towards greater miniaturization of smartphone technology and the ability to combine mobile calls, music, health and fitness tracking, mobile payments, smart device controls, and many other things literally on your wrist. Apple Pay enables you to store all your credit cards numbers securely and simply pay by waving your phone in front of a reader, thereby eliminating the need to carry wallets. While the technology isn’t new, the simplicity of Apple’s system seems to be catching on with vendors and consumers.

    On Thursday, billionaire investor Carl Ichan predicted that Apple’s market value could hit close to $1 trillion, according to a letter posted on his website. That may or may not happen, and only time will tell whether Apple can withstand competition in a crowded market. As long as the company avoids getting complacent, it will prosper.

    Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as hedge fund Ramius Capital. Sanghoee holds an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not hold any shares of Apple, Alibaba, Samsung, Google, or Microsoft.