搅局者小米撼动世界

    本文为与《时代》杂志的合作内容，首发于Time.com。

    要想深入了解科技业的现状，只需要看看那家让所有人都吓得发抖的顶尖公司即可。10年前是谷歌公司。近几年则是社交媒体和照片分享领域的巨无霸Facebook公司。而今年的重量级选手，却是一家直到一年多前还不为美国人所知的中国公司：小米。

    在全球无数家基于安卓系统打造的智能手机厂商中，小米不仅杀出重围，而且让其他厂商感受到了极大的竞争压力。根据德国统计公司Statista提供的数据，在全球智能手机市场上，小米占据的份额已从2013年的2.1%升至2014年年末的5.3%。

    小米飞速成功的一大原因是，它是基于安卓开源软件设计自己的硬件及固件的。小米MIUI系统运行起来平滑流畅，完全可与iPhone或三星的高端手机媲美，但售价却常常仅是后者的一半。相比之下，绝大多数安卓手机厂商只依赖富士康公司这类第三方代工商提供的相似设计模板。

    小米这一简单的优质低价战略，已威胁到了几家业界大佬的商业模式，比如：

    三星公司。中国是小米手机销售的主要市场，该公司的市场份额已从一年前的5%升至目前的15%。而三星的份额则从19%降至12%。IDC公司的数据显示，三星智能手机2014年的出货量已下降22%，而小米却暴增187%。

    在其他新兴经济体，三星的市场地位一直如日中天，但今年1月小米宣布，该公司将大举进入巴西、俄罗斯和其他新兴市场。在去年7月进入印度后，小米目前已拥有4%的市场份额。此外去年12月，小米成功募得11亿美元，这笔钱将用于在新兴市场建厂和营销。

    苹果早已是智能机高端市场的霸主。所以，随着小米推出价格低廉的时尚手机，三星可能会受到iPhone和低价安卓机的双重挤压，可谓腹背受敌。现在，小米又把火力对准了三星另一个核心市场：电视。去年11月，小米付给家电厂商美的集团2亿美元，并称其将斥资10亿美元打造自己的电视生态系统。

    GoPro公司。小米还计划推出一个网站在美国销售自己的产品。但出于多种原因，比如美国运营商常常向客户支付复杂的补贴，从而能够抵消一些昂贵手机的零售价，小米不会在美销售智能机，而是打算销售它的健身追踪器、耳机和其他配件。

    本月初，小米宣布将开始发售小蚁运动相机，这是一款1080p高清运动相机，听起来很像是GoPro最畅销的Hero相机。只不过小蚁相机仅售64美元，约为Hero售价的一半。此外，小蚁运动相机还在Hero的基础上大幅改进，搭载了一个1600万像素的镜头，每秒可拍摄60张照片。这显然又是一个高端低价产品。

    GoPro的品牌在美国要比小米强势得多。如果不是这样，GoPro就将面临一个艰难选择，要么将Hero的售价腰斩，要么眼睁睁看着自己的市场份额遭到侵蚀。今年GoPro公司的股价已下跌39%，就因为投资者担心它是否还能保持高速增长。小米相机在美国掀起的波澜越大，投资者就会越发担忧。

    谷歌公司。作为一家建立在安卓系统之上，发展迅猛的智能手机公司，大家可能会认为，小米的成功对谷歌这家大部分收入仍来自在线广告的公司大有好处。但是，谷歌的服务和移动应用在中国不是被屏蔽就是被禁止，所以阿里巴巴和百度这样的本土企业很早就学会在没有谷歌应用的安卓手机上开展业务了。

    谷歌在中国一直就没怎么风生水起过。目前尚不清楚的是，在小米卖到国外市场的手机上，谷歌应用将扮演什么角色。一方面，谷歌对那些使用安卓手机却不用自己服务的公司态度强硬。另一方面，小米公司的副总裁（也是前谷歌高管）雨果•巴拉上周称，小米可能不会把目前中国用户使用的应用商店出口到新兴市场。

    苹果公司。鉴于iPhone 6在中国和全球的热销，苹果眼下似乎丝毫不会被小米撼动。但是展望未来几年，不难想象这家中国厂商将很快与硅谷王者打造的最佳产品一较高下。

    小米的MIUI系统要比苹果的iOS晚推出几年。尽管苹果享有先发地位，但小米迅速地打造了一套外观和使用体验都能和iOS媲美的系统，还让它应用于手机、平板和可穿戴设备等产品。

    小米产品的扩张轨迹也和苹果十分类似：一台可播放流媒体数字内容的智能电视终端，一款能很容易开发为智能手表的健身追踪器，以及一款外形时尚的金色头戴式耳机。甚至本周还有传言称小米要推出电动汽车——这当然纯属谣传， 不过这种说法也符合大家普遍认同的一个看法，即最富创新性的公司都盯上了汽车市场。

    苹果早期推出的iPhone也曾经历过低谷，因为当时它的功能与市面上其他高端手机并无显著差异。如果这种历史重演，小米的使用体验更接近iPhone，小米就会夺去苹果的一部分市场份额。目前这两个对手已经开始相互抨击挑刺了。

    在迅速发展的进程中，小米一定也会碰上障碍，比如该公司已经在印度遭遇了专利官司。各路对手可能会用专利诉讼来拖慢小米全球扩张的脚步，但对这样一家市值高达450亿美元，而且正在筹划上市的企业来说，要筹得足够资金收购一大堆属于自己的专利是轻而易举的事情。除此之外，还很难看到有什么障碍能阻挡小米坚实而有力的步伐。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    审校：任文科

    This post is in partnership with Time. The article below was originally published at Time.com.

    You can tell a lot about the state of the tech industry by looking at the company that’s currently scaring the crap out of everybody. A decade ago, it was Google . More recently, Facebook became the 800-pound gorilla in social media and photo sharing. This year, the heavy is one that was unknown in the US until a year or so ago: Xiaomi.

    Out of countless smartphone makers that have emerged to build on the Android mobile operating system, Xiaomi has not only broken apart from the herd, it’s quickly given other smartphone manufacturers a run for their money. Xiaomi’s share of the global smartphone market rose to 5.3% in late 2014 from 2.1% a year earlier, according to Statista.

    A big reason for Xiaomi’s sudden success is that it designs its own hardware as well as the firmware that rides on top of Android’s open-source software. Xiaomi’s MIUI interface evokes the speed and sleekness of an iPhone or a high-end Samsung phone, but often retails for half the price. Most Android phone sellers, by contrast, rely on similar design templates offered by third-party manufacturers like Foxconn.

    Xiaomi’s simple strategy of high-quality gadgets at lower prices is threatening the business models of some of the biggest names in technology, including:

    Samsung. In China, where the bulk of Xiaomi’s phones have been sold to date, the company’s market share has risen to 15% from 5% a year earlier. Samsung’s, meanwhile, has fallen to 12% from 19%. According to IDC, Samsung’s smartphone shipments in China declined by 22% in 2014, while Xiaomi’s surged 187%.

    Samsung has been a big presence in other emerging economies, but Xiaomi announced in January that it would be pushing aggressively into Brazil, Russia and other emerging markets. After launching in India in July, Xiaomi already has a 4% market share. And the company raised $1.1 billion in December, proceeds that could go to building manufacturing and marketing presences in new countries.

    Apple has emerged as the predominant smartphone company at the high end of the market. So with Xiaomi offering stylish phones at lower prices, Samsung may find itself pinched between iPhones and low-cost commodity Android phones. Now Xiaomi is gunning for another core Samsung market: TV sets. In November, Xiaomi paid$200 million for Midea Group, a maker of consumer electronics, and said it would spend $1 billion to build out its TV ecosystem.

    GoPro. Xiaomi is also planning on launching a site to sell its goods in the US. But for various reasons like the complex subsidies US carriers pay to offset sticker prices, Xiaomi won’t sell smartphones here but instead will sell its fitness tracker, headphones and other accessories.

    Earlier this month, Xiaomi said it would also start selling the Yi Camera, a 1080p high-definition action camera that sounds a lot like the best-selling Hero sold by GoPro. Only the Yi will sell for $64, or about half the price of the Hero. The Yi even improves on the Hero with a 16-megapixel camera shooting 60 frames a second. So again, high-end quality at half the price.

    GoPro’s brand is much stronger in the US than Xiaomi’s. If that changes, GoPro faces a tough choice between slashing the Hero’s price or watching its market share erode. GoPro’s stock has already lost 39% this year amid concerns about whether it can maintain its torrid growth pace. The bigger the splash that Xiaomi’s camera makes in the US, the more those concerns will grow.

    Google. As a thriving smartphone company built on Android, you’d think Xiaomi’s success would be a positive for Google, which still makes the vast bulk of its revenue from online ads. But Google’s services and mobile apps are either blocked or hamstrung in China, so local companies like Alibaba and Baidu have long since learned to work on Android phones without Google’s API.

    Google has never had a strong footprint in China. What isn’t clear is what role Google apps will play on Xiaomi’s phones sold outside of China. On the one hand, Google takes a hard line on companies that use Android without its services. On the other, Xiaomi VP (and former Googler) Hugo Barra indicated last week that Xiaomi may not export to new markets the app store it uses for its Chinese customers.

    Apple. Given the popularity of the iPhone 6 in China and across the globe, Apple seems to be immune for now to any threat posed by Xiaomi. But glance a few years down the road and it’s not hard to imagine the Chinese manufacturer competing with the best products offered by the reigning king of Silicon Valley.

    Xiaomi’s MIUI is several years younger than Apple’s iOS. But despite Apple’s early lead, Xiaomi has quickly created an interface that is not only drawing more comparisons with the look and feel of iOS, it’s designed to be used on a wide array of devices from phones to tablets to wearables.

    Xiaomi’s expansion trajectory also looks a lot like Apples: a smart TV console that streams digital content, a fitness tracker that could easily mature into a smartwatch, headphones that offer stylish looks and gold-colored metal. There were even reports this week of a Xiaomi electric car–spurious, to be sure, but it fits the idea that the most innovative companies are interested in the car market.

    Apple’s earlier iPhones suffered phases when their features weren’t terribly distinctive from other top phones on the market. If that happens again, and Mi’s user experience comes closer to that of the iPhone, Xiaomi could steal some of Appple’s market share. In the meantime, the two emerging rivals have already taken to throwing shade on each other.

    Xiaomi is sure to face speed bumps as it races forward, like the patent suitsit’s already facing in India. Competitors may use patent litigation to slow Xiaomi’s global expansion, but then again, a company worth $45 billion and planning an IPO can easily raise enough cash to buy a substantial patent portfolio of its own. Beyond that, it’s hard to see what will slow Xiaomi’s steady march ahead.