卡夫+亨氏=增长？

迄今，我们都已知晓当巴菲特和巴西私募股权公司3G资本合作并购一家公司后，很可能发生两件事：一是将大幅削减成本、裁撤人员；二是巴菲特以及3G公司的合伙人们最后将大赚一笔。近日宣布的这笔重磅交易也不会例外——巴菲特和3G公司共同持有的亨氏以400亿美元并购卡夫。卡夫公司的产品包括mac & cheese奶酪和Jell-O果冻，年销售额为180亿美元。

    食品行业渴盼大刀阔斧整合久矣。然而，在关于此次并购的电话会议中，谈到交易后的预期效益，受命担任新卡夫亨氏公司首席执行官的贝尔纳•赫斯（现亨氏掌门人）与3G联席创始人兼管理合伙人亚历克斯•贝林口径一致。用后者的话来说：“本次交易完全是为了增长。”

    但要增长什么？从过去的历史来看，以下几项可能会只减不增。

    ——职位。亨氏自两年前被并购以来，已砍掉近7000个工作岗位。多家工厂关门、总部办公楼也从两栋减至一栋。赫斯在电话会议上表示，他打算保留两家公司的总部（亨氏总部位于匹兹堡，而卡夫总部位于芝加哥），但各处都将大力进行整合。

    ——收入。被3G收购以来，亨氏的利润大涨，但销售额却从2012年（并购前一年）的117亿美元降至去年的109亿美元。这部分原因在于成本削减，还有部分原因则在于加工食品行业出现了变化，人们日益青睐更为健康的食品，而非食品业巨头的产品。

    ——供应商和顾问公司【除了埃森哲以外】。与卡夫有业务往来的公司，要小心了。3G只对埃森哲这一家外部企业忠诚，并且采用零基预算。这意味着每年都必须证明支出的每一分钱都花得有道理。供应商很可能被告知将成本削减20％以上，否则就可能丢掉生意。3G公司最高管理层很推崇一部名为《利润倍增》的大作，该书中有一章名为“当供应商说不，再三敲打他们”。

    ——当前的高管团队。3G立刻在亨氏和汉堡王进行了管理层大换血。仅在亨氏，12名顶级高管中，就有11人被取而代之，新上任的高管大多来自3G公司，其中很多都是巴西人，在贯彻3G公司战略方面颇具经验。汉堡王经历了类似的改组。那些希望留下来的高管，应该准备好单枪匹马的与赫斯坐下来面谈。

    ——卡夫与麦当劳的关系。由于3G旗下还拥有汉堡王，其收购亨氏引起了麦当劳的不满。因此，该交易完成后不久，麦当劳就不再用亨氏作为自身番茄酱供应商。不久前，卡夫和麦当劳宣布了在全美推出袋装咖啡的一笔大交易。此合作项目是否也将受到影响？（财富中文网）

    译者：Hunter

    By now, we know that two things are likely when it comes to a 3G/Warren Buffett investment pairing: First, there will be massive cost and personnel cuts; Second, Buffett and the partners of 3G will make lots of money. There is no reason to think otherwise with today’s blockbuster deal, the Buffett/3G-owned Heinz’s $40 billion purchase of Kraft, the $18 billion (sales) maker of mac & cheese and Jell-O.

    The food industry has long been ripe for drastic consolidation. Yet on a conference call discussing the deal, the anointed CEO of Kraft Heinz, Bernardo Hees (currently the chief of Heinz), and his boss, 3G cofounder and managing partner Alex Behring, stuck to one unified story line in explaining the expected benefit of the deal. As Behring put it, “This transaction is all about growth.”

    But growth of what, exactly? Here are some things that, based on past history, may not expand.

    –Jobs. Some 7,000 jobs have been slashed at Heinz since the merger took place two years ago. Plants have been shuttered, the headquarters reduced from two buildings to one. Hees said on the call that he intended to keep both companies’ headquarters in place in Pittsburgh (Heinz) and Chicago (Kraft), but expect dramatic consolidation there and elsewhere.

    –Revenues. Since 3G took charge, Heinz’s profits are way up, but sales have fallen from $11.7 billion in 2012, the year before the merger, to $10.9 billion last year. This is in part because of cost cuts, but it’s also becausetrends in the processed food industry show a shift away from big food and toward more health-conscious items.

    –Suppliers and consultants (other than Accenture). Outsiders with a relationship to Kraft, look out. 3G is loyal primarily to one outside firm—Accenture—and uses zero-based budgeting. That means every penny of spending must be justified every single year. Suppliers can expect to be told to reduce their costs by 20% or more, or risk losing the business. As it says in a chapter heading of a book called “Double Your Profits,” a tome favored by the top executives at 3G, “When suppliers say no, hit them again and again.”

    –The current executive team. At both Heinz and Burger King, 3G immediately initiated sweeping turnover at the top. At Heinz alone, 11 of the top 12 executives were replaced, many by 3G execs, many of them Brazilian, with experience in implementing its playbook. Burger King has experienced a similar realignment. Execs who hope to stay should be ready to appear—with no more than one piece of paper in hand—for a sitdown interview with Hees.

    –Kraft’s relationship with McDonald’s MCD -1.23% . Because 3G also owns Burger King, the purchase of Heinz didn’t sit well with McDonald’s, which dropped Heinz as its ketchup supplier not long after the 3G merger went through. Kraft and McDonald’s recently announced a giant deal to roll out bagged coffee nationwide. Will that relationship take a hit too?