奢侈品将在中国东山再起

    这几年，随着中国中产阶层逐渐迷上高档时装和珠宝，来自法国、意大利和美国的众多奢侈品牌在中国发展得红红火火。

    但这种销售热潮正在消减，近来多家西方奢侈品零售商发布的令人失望的业绩就是明证。尽管也有很多迹象表明，这种放缓只是暂时的。

    据贝恩咨询公司统计，去年中国的奢侈品销售额比2013年下降了1%，跌至1150亿元人民币。中国经济放缓以及政府打击贪污腐败和送礼之风对手表行业的影响尤其明显，也是奢侈品销量走低的主要原因所在。

    法国奢侈品牌爱马仕表示，其腕表部门销售业绩去年下滑了11%，很大程度上受中国奢侈品市场萎缩影响。该公司预计，与近年平均水平相比，2015年的整体增长将依然缓慢。普拉达2014年中国市场的销售业绩则下滑了4%，其预计今年奢侈品牌依旧面临艰难处境。

    然而，以铂金包和丝巾等闻名的爱马仕一直在中国持续增设门店，就在几个月前，它在上海的新旗舰店——爱马仕之家开张。

    这一切是为什么？因为有充分数据表明，当前中国的奢侈品销售只是遇到了一个“减速带”。

    由花旗委托经济学人智库完成一份新研究报告称，五年内，中国富人拥有的资产将是美国富人的两倍。该报告指出，到2020年，身家在10万到200万美元的中国人拥有的金融资产总额将达53万亿美元，而美国仅为27万亿美元。

    也就是说，有很多人会想去普拉达、Gucci和蒂芙尼店里去购物，以及购买昂贵的雅诗兰黛美妆产品。这些公司对此乐意之至。

    刚着手在中国扩张业务的时装公司Michael Kors最近表示，其在华销售业绩“开始稳定下来”。这家公司的劲敌Coach则计划在中国新开几家门店，它最新一个季度的在华销售额增长了13%。另外，尽管深受内地游客喜爱的蒂芙尼香港门店的假期销售数字未达到预期，但它依然在全速推进在华扩张计划。

    其他一些非奢侈品牌的西方公司也准备在中国大展拳脚。拥有Old Navy等品牌的Gap公司计划今年在中国新开40家门店。拉尔夫•劳伦去年在中国实现了两位数的销售增长，眼下将中国视为其“最至关重要”的市场之一。

    显然，对奢侈品牌和零售业高层来说，中国市场放缓只是一个暂时的变化。

    雅诗兰黛首席执行官法布里吉奥•弗里达上个月说，“中国高档美容产品市场仍保持着高单位数增长，我们看到这里遍布机会，可以进入更多的城市，建立新的门店和销售渠道，并推出更多品牌。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Pessy

    审校：Charlie

    For years, French, Italian and American luxury brands have thrived as China’s middle class developed a taste for high-end fashion and jewelry.

    But that sales boom is ebbing based on the disappointing results many Western luxury retailers have reported of late, though much suggests this slowdown will be short-lived.

    Last year, Chinese luxury sales fell 1% compared to 2013 at 115 billion RMB ($18.5 billion at current rates), according to a report by Bain & Co. A slowing Chinese economy and a government crackdown on graft and gift-giving that was particularly brutal on the watch industry is mostly to blame.

    French luxury brand Hermès said watch sales fell 11% in large part because of China, and the company is expecting overall growth this year to remain slow compared to recent averages. Meanwhile, Prada said it expects the tough times for luxury to continue after its China sales fell 4% in 2014.

    At the same time, Hermès, known for its highly coveted Birkin bags and horse-themed silk scarves that go for thousands of dollars each, has continued to expand its stores in China. That includes its flagship Maison Hermès in Shanghai a few months ago.

    Why? Because there is ample data to suggest that luxury’s current slowdown in China is but a speed bump.

    According to a new report by the Economic Intelligence Unit sponsored by Citigroup, China’s wealthy will have double the assets of their U.S counterpart within five years. By 2020, the financial assets of Chinese worth $100,000 to $2 million will reach $53 trillion, compared to $27 trillion in the United States, according to the report.

    That means a lot of people will be wanting to shop at Prada, Gucci and Tiffany & Co TIF 0.35% and buying expensive Estée Lauder EL 0.58% beauty products. And such companies are happy to oblige.

    Fashion company Michael Kors KORS -0.25% , which is just getting started with its China expansion, recently said sales there are “starting to take hold.” Kors’ archrival Coach COH 0.17% , which plans several new stores in China, saw its sales there rise 13% in its most recent quarter. Tiffany is full steam ahead with its China expansion despite disappointing numbers over the holidays at its Hong Kong stores, a favorite haunt of mainland customers.

    Other Western companies, including non-luxury brands, also have big plans for China. Gap Inc GPS -0.58% , whose brands include Old Navy, plans to open 40 new stores in China this year, while Ralph Lauren RL -0.10% sees China as one of its “greatest” markets on the back of double-digit sales growth last year.

    So it’s clear that any Chinese slowdown is seen by luxury and retail executives as a blip.

    “China’s prestige beauty growth remains at high single digits, and we see widespread opportunity to enter additional cities, doors and channels, and launch more brands,” Estée Lauder CEO Fabrizio Freda said last month.