麦当劳扭转颓势要做的5件事

    麦当劳公司创始人雷•克拉克曾经说过：“如果你不敢冒险，就不要去开公司。”鉴于这家连锁餐厅已经深陷困境，听从其传奇创始人的建议，从来没有像今天这么重要。在新任首席执行官史蒂夫•伊斯特布鲁克的领导下，麦当劳预计将在今年夏天之前公布解困方案。

    分析师们一直在讨论各种可能。尽管接下来会发生什么还有待观察，但对于华尔街目前流行的部分观点，我实在不敢苟同，以下是我的看法。

    减少销售咖啡类饮料

    麦当劳的第一要务是重启全球七大关键市场的销售势头，让同店销售额回到正增长，以最大程度地创造股东价值。对于麦当劳的补救计划，我们将拭目以待，不过麦当劳必须把握“以收缩换增长”这条准则，换句话说，这家连锁餐厅需要努力减少菜单的产品数目。

    在美国，这可能意味着改掉一个我认为该公司在历史上犯下的最昂贵的错误：咖啡类饮料。麦当劳的每家连锁店都花费了大约10万美元来提供McCafe产品，而它们的销售额却远低于目标。现在到了麦当劳专注于做回自己的时候了，不要再去扮演其他公司，比如星巴克。

    不要涉足房地产

    华尔街似乎沉迷于一个概念，即公司可以通过举债经营或建立房地产投资信托基金（按照美国法律，这类基金应当向股东分派至少90%的应税收入作为分红）来提高股东的权益。尽管这听起来十分诱人，但却不太可能实现。在利润空间压缩的情况下仍然举债经营，会给利润率带来不必要的负担，产生不必要的金融风险。“麦当劳”可不应该成为“麦地产”。

    削减行政开支

    麦当劳可以借机削减一般费用及行政开支。这将会是新任首席执行官面临的最大挑战。伊斯特布鲁克需要在低效率和冗余运作的领域进行大胆改革，这点十分关键。尽管有些削减会影响到盈亏底线，但麦当劳需要更好地进行资源配置（人力资本和财政资源），重新进行商业投资，让公司重获生机。

    解决加盟商关切的问题

    新任首席执行官必须让公司重新与加盟商/经营者建立联系。

    自1940年麦当劳成立至今，广告业已经发生了巨大的变化。有鉴于此，新任首席执行官面临的关键问题是如何让加盟商合作社，即全国加盟商联合广告基金会(OPNAD)更加高效。为了在全国的电视节目上播出广告，麦当劳和加盟商会把营销资金整合到一起。考虑到OPNAD成立于1967年，现在的问题是，公司是否应当调整购买媒体广告的比例？

    多年来，每家店面都会把销售额的1%付给OPNAD，再付2%至3%给本地的广告播出方。该费用在20世纪90年代初降至了2%，如今大约是1.6%。随着营销手段越来越具有地区性，这一费用还需要进一步降低。加盟商正在讨论把一部分资金挪回本地进行营销。

    重视移动端订单

    尽管餐饮业一直在努力采用移动端下单，麦当劳却并未紧随潮流。这凸显了公司在创新上的迟滞性。

    这确实是该公司，尤其是公司董事会的失败。麦当劳最近表示，在接下来的几个月中，一款全球通用的应用将会上线，不过发布日期和具体的功能将由麦当劳在各国的管理层决定。在美国，这款应用很可能将于今年夏天面世。

    我们希望麦当劳能在未来过得更好，并期待着看到全新面貌的“金拱门”。不过在那之前，公司仍将在挣扎中探索出路，股价也将停滞不前。

    霍华德•彭尼是投资研究公司Hedgeye Risk Management常务董事兼餐饮业研究部门总监。他并不持有麦当劳的股份。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc once said: “If you’re not a risk taker, you should get the hell out of business.” As the restaurant chain struggles, there has never been a time in the history of the company where following the advice of its legendary founder has been more critical than it is today. Under the direction of new CEO Steve Easterbrook, McDonald’s MCD -1.23% is expected sometime between now and the beginning of summer to unveil plans to turn the company around.

    Analysts have been talking about several scenarios. And while it remains to be seen what could happen, the following are my thoughts on a few ideas floating around Wall Street.

    Scale back the sale of espresso-based beverages

    The number one priority is to reset the sales trends in seven key global markets. Returning these markets to positive same-store sales growth will result in the greatest creation of shareholder value. We will wait and see what the company plans to do, but the overarching theme is that McDonald’s must focus on the mantra, “shrink to grow.” In other words, the chain must make a concerted effort to shrink its menu.

    In the U.S., this will likely call for the elimination of what I consider the most expensive mistake in the history of the company: espresso-based beverages. It costs franchisees about $100,000 per store to implement the McCafe models and the sales of espresso-based beverages are running well below the intended sales targets. It’s time for McDonald’s to focus on being itself, instead of pretending to be something it is not (i.e. Starbucks.)

    Don’t get into the real estate business

    Wall Street seems obsessed with the notion that the company will enhance shareholder value by leveraging its balance sheet or forming a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), which by law must pay out at least 90% of taxable earnings to shareholders as dividends. As advantageous as this sounds, it’s unlikely to happen. Taking on additional leverage while margins are declining will put unnecessary pressure on profitability and will perpetuate unnecessary financial risk. There should never be a McREIT!

    Cut administrative costs

    There is an opportunity for McDonald’s to cut its general & administrative expenses. This will be the biggest challenge for the new CEO. It will be critical for Easterbrook to make bold changes in inefficient and unnecessary operational areas. While some of the cuts will fall to the bottom line, the company must better maximize its resource allocation (human capital and financial resources) and re-invest in the business to bring the company back to life.

    Address franchise concerns

    The new CEO must reestablish the company’s connection with its owners/operators.

    Given how much the business of advertising has changed since McDonald’s was founded in 1940, the critical issue facing the new CEO is how to make its voluntary cooperative of owners/operators, known as OPNAD (Operators National Advertising Fund), more effective. McDonald’s and the owner/operators combine their marketing dollars to fund national television advertising. Given that OPNAD was formed in 1967, the question is should the company restructure how it purchases media?

    For many years, every store paid 1% of sales into OPNAD plus another 2% to 3% locally. This fee fell to 2% in the early 1990’s and to around 1.6% today. With a more regional approach to marketing, that probably needs to come down further, and the franchisees are talking about bringing some money home to spend locally.

    Ramp up mobile ordering

    While the broader restaurant industry has been working hard to adopt mobile ordering, McDonald’s has been slower to catch on.This illustrate just how behind the company is in terms of innovation.

    This is a real black eye for the company and especially the Board of Directors. The company recently said a global app should be ready to launch in the next few months, though the launch date and exact functionality of the application will be up to McDonald’s management in each country. The app will likely roll out in the U.S. sometime this summer.

    We hope there are better days ahead for McDonald’s and look forward to seeing what the new Golden Arches will look like. But until then, the company is still struggling to find its way and the stock will tread water.

    Howard Penney is a managing director at Hedgeye Risk Management, a Connecticut-based research investment firm. He heads the firm’s research over the restaurant industry. Penney does not own shares of McDonald’s.