特斯拉超级电池工厂可能未投产已过时？我来告诉你为什么

    面对电池技术迅速发展带来的威胁，特斯拉设在内华达州的超级电池工厂（Gigafactory）笼罩在一片阴云之中。尽管新技术面临诸多障碍，但如果在五年内出现既实用又远好于现有产品的电池，特斯拉斥资50亿美元新建的建锂离子聚合物电池工厂就可能变成巨大负担。

    今年1月份，富士色素株式会社（并非富士子公司）宣布，已在铝空气电池技术上取得重大突破。与特斯拉即将量产的锂聚电池相比，铝空气电池理论容量多出40倍以上。而且富士色素表示，将在今年底前实现项目商业化。这意味着，定于2016年投产的特斯拉超级电池工厂可能从一开始就处于落后位置，该厂预计还需要7-10年才能达到设计产能并收回成本。

    电池领域的创新遵循的规律基本一致：电池都有阴极和阳极，靠阴阳极之间的电解质发生反应产生电流。铝空气电池以水为电解质，通过氧气和铝的反应产生电流。标准的铝-空气反应会消耗铝阳极，因此必须替换阳极，并不能简单充电了事。富士色素表示，通过在关键位置放置陶瓷和碳精片隔层，即可抑制腐蚀和副产品，这样铝空气电池只需加水就能多次充电。

    美国西北大学材料科学和工程学教授马克•赫尔萨姆指出，如果富士色素真能完成铝空气电池的商业化，“非常了不起”。不过他认为还有一些问题没有解决，比如铝空气电池的体积在使用过程中会缩小，可能出现破裂，因此很难集成到无法容错的汽车系统中。

    在一封电子邮件中，富士色素铝空气电池项目首席研究员森亮平的态度就略显谨慎，不似公司1月公告中那般乐观。他写道：“我们仍处于开发阶段，也许近期内可能大规模生产。”

    不过，苦心钻研先进电池技术的并不只有富士色素一家。以色列公司Phinergy也在追寻铝空气电池梦。美国初创企业PathionandSakti 3则着眼于更激进的创新，他们的想法是用陶瓷或水晶代替液态电解质，制造固态电池；该公司已成功展示了一种新电池，能量密度为每升1000瓦时，一旦启用可将特斯拉的行驶里程增加一倍以上。PathionandSakti 3首席执行官迈克尔•利德尔预计，固态电池技术可在两年内投放市场。

    当然，特斯拉的电池工厂主要任务不是生产最先进的电池，而是采用现有技术并通过量产来降低成本。特斯拉理想的电动车售价为3.5万美元。在降低成本方面，铝空气电池和固态电池都有潜在优势。铝比锂便宜得多，固态电池则可以像计算机芯片一样“压制”出来，比起锂聚电池生产所需的金属分层和轧制工艺效率高多了。

    据咨询公司NextEnergy负责工业及创新发展的副总裁丹•拉多姆斯基介绍，对特斯拉来说，针对新出现的创新调整非常困难，“这就和从盒式录像带转向光盘差不多，会改变整个供应链。”

    不过，汽车行业的需求也许能为特斯拉争取一些时间。高温和低温对电池性能影响很大，相应的安全标准当然也很严格。虽然锂聚电池在高温环境下有些问题，但经历了几十年的考验后在汽车上使用已经问题不大。

    特斯拉也可以选择改进超级电池工厂的锂聚电池。新加坡南洋理工大学的研究人员已经开发出可快速充电的二氧化钛阳极；马克•赫尔萨姆教授在西北大学的团队则通过加入石墨烯等材料，将锂聚电池阳极的失电子能力提高了一倍。尽管阴极方面已经落后，但特斯拉整合新材料应该不用彻底革新锂聚电池生产工艺。

    说到底，特斯拉的电池工厂长期维继的最大问题在于战略，而不是技术。毕竟，实验室里的创新和实用产品不是一回事。正如PathionandSakti 3首席执行官迈克尔•利德尔所言，电池研究处于“零敲碎打”状态，实际推进有限。许多初创公司和研究人员都可以制造出更好的阴极、阳极或者电解质，但三者得完美结合才能成为电池。一直以来，很少有资金用在结合三者并大规模量产新电池方面。

    随着凯迪拉克和宝马等主要汽车厂商更积极开拓电动汽车市场，局面可能改变。电池技术已成关键竞争点，花在新一代主流电池上的资金也不断增多（通用汽车就是PathionandSakti 3的主要投资者之一）。电池领域正飞速革新，未来很可能会超过特斯拉CEO埃隆•穆斯克的想象。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审校：夏林

    A disruptive shadow looms over Tesla Motors’ giantNevada “gigafactory”—the threat of rapidly advancing battery technology. While plenty of hurdles face new battery tech, the emergence of a viable and significantly better battery in the next five years could turn Tesla’s $5 billion facility for mass producing lithium-ion batteries into a giga-albatross.

    In January, Fuji Pigment Co. Ltd. (not affiliated with Fujifilm) announced that it had made a significant breakthrough in aluminum-air battery technology. Aluminium-air batteries have a theoretical capacity morethan 40 times greater than the lithium-ion cells Tesla will soon mass-produce, and Fuji Pigment has stated it will commercialize its innovation by the end of 2015. This means that the gigafactory’s products could already be outclassed before its target 2016 opening—and long before the estimated 7-10 years of full production it could take to recoup the factory’s costs.

    Battery innovation takes place within a rigid structure: every battery has two ‘sides,’ the cathode and anode, which react through an electrolyte medium to produce power. Analuminum-air battery generates electricity from the reaction of oxygen and aluminum, using water as an electrolyte. A standard aluminium-air reaction consumes the aluminum anode, which must be physically replaced rather than electrically recharged. But Fuji Pigment claims that, by adding strategically placed layers of ceramic and carbon, it has managed to suppress corrosion and reaction byproducts, creating an aluminium-air battery that can be recharged multiple times by simply adding water.

    Dr. Mark Hersam, professor of materials science and engineering at Northwestern University, says that it would be “stunning” if Fuji Pigment hit their target for commercialization. Among other unaddressed issues, he points out that aluminium-air batteries physically contract as they discharge, which can lead to fracturing and make them difficult to integrate into fault-intolerant automotive systems.

    In an email, Ryohei Mori, Fuji Pigment’s lead researcher on the aluminium-air project, sounded a slightly more cautious note than the company’s January press release. “We are still at developing stage, and maybe in the near future . . . we can work together with large scale.”

    But Fuji Pigment is not the only company working on a better battery. Israel’s Phinergy is also pursuing the aluminium-air dream, while American startups Pathionand Sakti 3 are looking at an even more radical innovation—solid-state batteries that replace liquid electrolytes with ceramic or crystal. Sakti 3 has successfully demoed a battery that produces 1,000 watt-hours of energy per liter of battery volume, which in practice could more than double the driving range of a current Tesla. Pathion CEO Michael Liddle projects that solid-state battery technology will be market-ready within two years.

    Of course, the main point of the gigafactory is not to produce cutting-edge batteries, but to produce existing tech on a scale that will bring costs down—Tesla hopes to sell an electric sedan for $35,000. But in this regard, too, both aluminium-air and solid-state batteries have a potential edge. Aluminum is far cheaper than lithium, and solid-state batteries could be ‘printed’ like computer chips, a much more efficient process than the layering and rolling of metal and gel that produces lithium-ion batteries.

    According to Dan Radomski, vice president for industry and venture development at the consulting firmNextEnergy, it would be very difficult for Tesla to pivot in response to these innovations. “It’s not too much different from us going from VHS to disc. It changes the entire supply chain.”

    The demands of the automotive sector may buy Tesla some time. Cars are subject to high and low temperatures that have a significant impact on battery performance, and the standard for safety is understandably high. While lithium-ion batteries have shown some problems in responding to high temperatures, decades of testing have gone into gaining it acceptance for use in cars.

    Tesla will also likely have some options for upgrading the gigafactory’s lithium-ion products. Researchers atNangyang Technological University have developed a fast-charging titanium dioxide anode, and Mark Hersam’s team at Northwestern has doubled the capacity of a lithium-ion anode by interlacing materials like graphene. Though cathode advances have trailed, integrating new materialswould not require a wholesale overhaul of the gigafactory’slithium-ion production process.

    Ultimately, the biggest question mark for the gigafactory’slong-term viability are less technological than strategic. An innovation in a lab is not the same as a working product, and Pathion’s Michael Liddle says that the piecemeal nature of battery research has limited real-world advances. Many startups and researchers can produce a better cathode, anode, or electrolyte, but all three must work together perfectly to make a battery. The capital to bring the pieces together, and bring production of new batteries to scale, has been scarce.

    But that’s likely to change with major manufacturers likeCadillac and BMW moving more aggressively into electrics. With range an ever more vital competitive point, increasing amounts of capital will be chasing the next big battery (GM is a major investor in Sakti 3). That could push the rate of change beyond what even Tesla CEO Elon Musk could have foreseen.