陷入低谷的中国楼市已经触底了吗？

    对陷入低谷的中国房地产来说，最艰难的时期已经过去了吗？

    本周一公布的最新数据显示，北京在内的中国70座大中城市的新房价格开始有回暖趋势。

    国家统计局称，今年4月48个城市的房价环比下跌，上涨的城市有18个。尽管市场仍呈负面态势（48个城市的平均房价跌幅大于18个城市的涨幅），但比起几个月前70个城市房价全线下跌的局面已经好转。二手房市场更活跃，房价上涨的城市有28个，下跌的有34个。

    一线城市反弹趋势最明显，北上广深的房价均环比上升，二三线城市房价则继续下滑。这种情况让政府担心，因为往往这些地区在开发新楼盘时借下大量债务，而偿债能力较弱。

    可以说，楼市是中国经济放缓背后的最大因素，因为房地产和建筑行业约占中国GDP的20%，而且对钢筋、水泥和家电等行业都会产生连锁反应。去年，中国经济增速仅为7.2%，创20多年新低。许多经济学家认为，今年中国的经济增速也将低于7%的官方目标。

    Is the worst over for China’s bust real estate market?

    Prices for new residential buildings have started to tick up in some the country’s 70 largest cities, including the capital Beijing, according to new figures out Monday.

    The National Bureau of Statistics said that prices in April fell from March’s levels in 48 cities, but rose in 18. While that’s still a largely negative trend (and the prices declines in the 48 were on average bigger than the rises in the 18), it’s still better than the situation looked a couple of months ago, when they were heading down in all 70 cities surveyed. The dynamic was a bit stronger for existing home sales, where prices rose in 28 cities and fell in 34.

    It’s the first-tier cities which are leading the way: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all posted increases from March. But prices continue to fall in second- and third-tier cities. That’s a worry for the government because the regions where they are based are generally less able to carry the debt that they have taken on to develop new projects.

    The housing market is arguably the single biggest factor behind the slowdown in China’s economy, as real estate and construction account for some 20% of gross domestic product, with knock-on effects on everything from steel bars and cement to household appliances. Growth slowed to its lowest annual rate in over 20 years last year, a ‘mere’ 7.2%, and many economists think it will fall short of the government’s target of 7% this year as well.

    不过，数据显示多项扶持政策或许已开始提振楼市。近几个月，央行连续下调利率，并采取其他措施鼓励银行放贷；同时，政府降低了二套房的首付比例。

    商业地产市场也开始抬头。今年前四个月，新增销售面积只下降了3.1%，这是一年多来的最好业绩。

    不过，没人认为房地产行业已经摆脱困境。国家统计局的数据同时表明，今年1-4月份，开发商购地面积减少了32.7%。也就是说，长期依赖土地出让收入的地方政府今后将迎来财政上的关键考验。但这至少也意味着，楼市过剩的库存也许不久就会清理完毕。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审校：夏林

    However, the figures suggest that the market may be starting to respond to a number of policy efforts to support it. In recent months, the central bank has cut interest rates and taken other measures to give banks more leeway to lend, while the government has loosened requirements on down-payments for second homes.

    The commercial property market is also picking up. Sales of new floor space fell by only 3.1% in the first four months of the year, their strongest performance in over a year.

    However, no-one is pretending that the sector is out of the woods yet. The NBS’s figures also show that the amount of land bought by real estate companies for development fell by 32.7% in the same period. That means crunch times ahead for local governments that have depended on such sales to finance their budgets. But at least it also means that the overhang of unsold properties might vanish before too long.