为什么说迪士尼正走向巅峰

    天行者卢克、钢铁侠托尼•史塔克、《冰雪奇缘》里的公主姐妹、美国队长、《玩具总动员》里的牛仔伍迪和巴斯光年……近年来，这类家庭娱乐片里虚构的“英雄”人物逐渐主导了当今的流行文化。而这一切的幕后推手多半要指向同一家公司：迪士尼。

    自近百年前成立以来，迪士尼一直稳固地在美国大众幻想世界里占有一席之地。但就算在这样长的历史中，迪士尼最近10年的表现也堪称惊艳。自2005年鲍勃•艾格担任首席执行官以来，迪斯尼的股价上涨了四倍多，而同期标普500指数涨了77%。其中大多数涨幅发生在2011年以后，当艾格此前埋下的伏笔开始一一收效之时。

    一些迪士尼股东因此对艾格推崇备至，就像孩子们敬慕迪斯尼电影里的“超级英雄”那样。但在最近几个月，多空双方开始争论：迪士尼股票还能涨多久？

    尽管没有人质疑迪士尼短期内的前景，但有些分析师对其股票的高估值忧心忡忡。按上个财年的收入计算，迪士尼现在的市盈率高达26倍，如果按本财年的预估收入计算，市盈率为22倍。相比之下，同样按近期收入计算，陶氏化学的市盈率仅为16倍。

    在长期关注迪士尼的31位分析师中，有12位给出了“持有”评级。通常情况下，获得该评级的都是基本面健康但价格已上涨至偏高价位的个股。不光是分析师对迪士尼股票持谨慎态度。据高盛最近估算，对冲基金里做空迪士尼的仓位已达到45亿美元，在美股市场名列第二，仅次于AT&T。

    关键在于，迪士尼的业绩已不能简单用“增长”来形容，其表现优秀到连看多方都大呼意外。今年3月，一位分析师纯粹因认为迪士尼估值过高而下调了它的评级，认为股价进一步上涨的空间有限。但就在本月，迪士尼的业绩又一次超过了华尔街的平均预期，这已经是过去六个季度中第五次出现这种情形。最新季报出炉后，七位分析师将迪士尼的目标股价上调至120-125美元。上周五，迪士尼以110美元的价格收盘。

    因此，尽管空方认为迪士尼股价已到顶，多方仍然认为其“柴源”充足，“篝火”仍可熊熊燃烧一段时间。多方的依据主要是艾格这些年来打造的两大成就，一是建立起了深受大众青睐的稳定的内容产品线；二是加强了迪士尼内部业务的交叉关联，使部门间的生意可相互反哺。

    这一点在迪士尼的电影业务上体现得尤其明显。2006年，迪士尼收购了皮克斯动画工作室。考虑到史蒂夫•乔布斯和艾格的前任迈克尔•艾斯纳之间的积怨，这笔收购相当引人注目。三年后，迪士尼收购了漫威娱乐，当时漫威旗下的各色“超级英雄”刚踏上复兴之路。2012年，卢卡斯影业正策划新的“星战三部曲”时，迪士尼出手将该公司纳入麾下。

    2015年迄今以来，迪士尼电影《灰姑娘》实现了5.21亿美元的全球票房，《复仇者联盟2：奥创纪元》斩获12亿美元。《明日世界》成为美国上周末票房冠军，但该片的表现没有达到预期，不过，上周末也是2001年以来美国阵亡将士纪念日假期票房最低的一次。这三部影片对迪士尼来说只能算热身。皮克斯今年将推出两部影片，分别是《头脑特工队》和《恐龙当家》。同期上映的还有《星球大战7：原力觉醒》。其中《星战7》的人气尤其高，光是最新预告片就吸引了逾2亿人次观看。

    随后，迪士尼翻拍的《森林王子》将于2016年上映，同期上映的还有《美国队长3》、《海底总动员2：寻找多莉》和《爱丽丝梦游仙境2》，它的上一部，2010年上映的《爱丽丝梦游仙境》当时创下了逾10亿美元票房。同时，《冰雪奇缘2》和《玩具总动员4》也在制作之中。漫威也不会闲着，《雷神3》、《银河护卫队2》以及另外两部《复仇者联盟》电影预计都将在2019年底前和观众见面。

    重磅巨制轮番轰炸或许会造成粗制滥造的感觉，但对迪士尼来说，这些电影创造了多条增收渠道。《冰雪奇缘》2013年就已上映，但过去六个月其周边销售额仍同比增长了10倍。艺电正打算在《星战7》上映时，同步推出游戏《星球大战：战争前线》。迪士尼2010年收购的游戏工作室Playdom也正在开发星战和漫威主题游戏。

    迪士尼乐园也搭上了电影的顺风车，《明日世界》就是一例。迪士尼主题公园近六个月营业利润增长了22%，已成业务新增长点。上海迪士尼乐园计划2016年开业，有望在随后几年进一步推动收入增长。

    迪士尼也有潜在的业务短板，这也是它业务里最大的一块，即包括ESPN和美国广播公司（ABC）在内的媒体网络。过去六个月中，这项业务尽管收入上升了12%，但营业利润持平。迪士尼在投资者电话会议上解释称，媒体业务利润持平的原因是美国橄榄球联盟和大学橄榄球联赛的转播成本上升。

    Luke Skywalker. Tony Stark. Elsa and Anna of Arendelle. Captain America. Woody and Buzz. The fictional heroes of family entertainment have never dominated popular culture as much as they have in recent years. And there is one company that is largely responsible for that: Disney.

    Founded nearly a century ago, Disney has long-held a firm place in America’s popular imagination, but even within that long history the past decade has been an impressive ride. Since Bob Iger took over as CEO in 2005, Disney’s stock has more than quadrupled while the S&P 500 is up 77%. Most of the gains have come since 2011 as Iger’s early moves began to bear fruit.

    And so some Disney shareholders have come to regard Iger with the kind of awe children have for Disney’s franchised superheroes. But in recent months a debate has broken out between bulls and bears over how long the rally can continue.

    While no one is doubting Disney’s immediate future, some analysts are concerned about the stock’s heady valuation. Disney is trading at 26 times last fiscal year’s earnings and 22 times its estimated earnings this year. The Dow, by contrast, is trading at 16 times its recent earnings.

    Of the 31 analysts covering Disney, 12 of them have a hold rating on the stock – often a rating given when an otherwise healthy stock has grown pricey. It’s not just analysts who are cautious. Goldman Sachs recently calculated that hedge funds have an aggregate $4.5 billion in short interest in Disney, second only to AT&T among US stocks.

    The thing is, Disney isn’t just growing, it’s performing so well that it’s surprising even the bulls. In March, one analyst downgraded Disney purely on its valuation,arguingfurther gains would be limited. But this month, Disney beatWall Street’s consensus estimate for the fifth time in the last six quarters. Following its last earnings report, seven analysts raised price targets to between $120 and $125 a share. Disney closed Friday at $110 a share.

    So while the bears argue that Disney is priced for perfection, bulls counter that the company has enough kindling to keep the bonfire burning for some time, largely because of two things Iger has built over the years: a steady lineup of content that appeals to the masses and an interlacing of Disney divisions that can feed business to each other.

    This is especially clear in the film business. In 2006, Disneybought Pixar, an impressive deal given the bad blood that has existed between Steve Jobs and Iger’s predecessor Michael Eisner. Three years later, Disney bought Marvel Entertainment just as it superhero franchises were entering a renaissance. And in 2012, the company bought Lucasfilm just as a new Star Wars trilogy was being planned.

    So far in 2015, Disney’s Cinderella has brought in $521 million worldwide and Avengers: Age of Ultron has pulled in $1.2 billion. The company’s Tomorrowland topped theweekend box-office in the U.S., but the movie fell short of expectations in what was the film industry’s lowest-grossing Memorial Day weekend since 2001. But Disney is only getting warmed up: Two Pixar movies, Inside Out andThe Good Dinosaur, are coming this year, along with Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens. The anticipation of Star Wars is especially high–the latest trailer alone has already had more than 200 million views.

    Beyond this year, Disney has a Jungle Book remake coming in 2016, along with Captain America 3, Finding Dory and a sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland, which topped $1 billion in receipts. Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 are in the works. And the Marvel lineup will remain busy, with newThor and Guardians of the Galaxy films and two Avengersmovies expected through 2019.

    The relentless parade of blockbuster fare may feel manufactured but, for Disney, they are paying off through multiple revenue streams. Sales of Frozen merchandise in the past six months rose tenfold over the year-ago period, even though the movie was released in 2013. EA is timing aStar Wars: Battlefront game to coincide with the film’s release, and the Playdom gaming studio Disney bought in 2010 is working on Star Wars- and Marvel-themed games as well.

    There are also tie-ins for theme parks, like Tomorrowland. Theme parks have become a growth area with operating profit in the unit growing 22% over the past six months. Disney is planning to open a new theme park in Shanghai in 2016, which could add to revenue in coming years.

    The one area of potential weakness is in Disney’s largest unit, the media networks business including ESPN and ABC, which saw operating income flat in the last six months while revenue rose 12% in the period. In a call with investors, Disney cited higher programming costs for NFL and college football games as reasons for the flat profit in the division.