口碑经济的罪与罚

    几年前，我一有极度不爽的修车经历，就会去点评网站Yelp上给那家修理厂打个低分。不过随着好评不断涌入，那条差评很快就从首页上消失了。这让我对所谓的“口碑经济”或“打分经济”开始产生怀疑。

    接下来的几年，各种打分网站如雨后春笋般涌现。从心理医生，到使用打车软件的乘客，每个人和每件事现在都成了可以打分的对象。正如《纽约时报》专栏作家陶曼玲使用幽默的笔触所写的那样，当她很难打上车时，Uber乘客如今也在被司机们品头论足。

    无所不在的打分究竟是好事还是坏事？带着这个问题，我深入研究了“打分界”，并且很快发现了所谓“口碑经济”的很多问题。以下就是我的发现。

    打分很重要

    事实上，打分和声誉的确非常重要，大多数人和企业都意识到了这一点。正是出于这一原因，Reputation.com（原名叫ReputationDefender）的创始人迈克尔•弗迪克才能开创出一门庞大的生意。据《卫报》报道，这家成立于2006年的公司“迄今已经帮助160万个付费客户展示其线上声誉…搜索引擎显示的结果都是其最讨人喜欢的经历。”无论是真实的还是带有部分“加工”成分，声誉关系到一个人的职业前景，或创业公司的融资能力。而人们的社会地位又会影响其婚烟前景和事业伙伴。

    另外，打分也深刻地影响着消费者的选择。一份针对1000余人的调查显示，三分之二的受访者会阅读网上的评价，然后90%的人表示，他们的购买决定会受到正面评价的影响，86%的人表示负面评价也会影响他们的选择。一些学术文献也认可消费者打分的重要性。一篇论文指出：“事实显示，消费者的评论能够用来预测购买决策……推动消费者进一步评价……比专家评价的影响力还要大。”此外，该论文还指出：“销量数据是随同产品评价增长的，而不是基于产品质量。”

    消费者的打分准确吗？

    消费者打分的强大影响力引发了一个问题：这些评分既然能够有力地影响人们的判断和决策，那么它们究竟有多准确呢？答案是，这要看你怎么定义“准确”。

    在以下三个例子中，有的打分对选择供应商很重要，有的则不那么重要；同时它们用来衡量表现的客观标准也不一样。

    医生

    就医时能获得最好的治疗非常重要。治疗结果通常来说是直观的，比如病情好转的程度，治疗不当引发其他病症的几率等，由此我们以为消费者能非常准确地评价医疗服务的质量，但实则不然。

    Consumer’s Checkbook是一个采用会员订阅制的机构，主要在旧金山等几座大城市运营。除了要求消费者对初级护理医师进行评分外，Checkbook还对大量执业医师进行了调查，以确定各个专科的最佳医师提名。该机构不接受任何广告，同时它也有自己的医生质量排名。

    2014年，在病人评出的104名最高评级的初级护理医师中，只有17人被他们的同行提名为最佳人选。另外在患者评出的最高评级的医生中，只有60%被Checkbook评为最高级。

    A few years ago, when I had a hideously bad auto repair experience, I posted a negative rating on Yelp. And then soon the rating disappeared from the first page as positive ratings poured in. That experience made me suspicious about what has come to be called the reputation or ratings economy.

    Over the ensuing years, ratings and ratings websites have proliferated. Everyone and everything from mental health providers to, as Times columnist Maureen Dowd humorously noted when she had trouble getting a ride, Uber passengers now get rated.

    Curious about how and whether the ratings game was a good thing or not, I did a deep dive into this world and quickly discovered many problems with the reputation economy. Here is what I learned.

    Ratings matter

    Michael Fertik, the founder of Reputation.com (originally called ReputationDefender), has built a huge business on the fact that ratings and reputations matter and that most people and companies understand that. His company, started in 2006, “has curated the online reputation of 1.6 million customers who pay … to have their most flattering activities showcased to the world via search engines,” The Guardian reported. A person’s reputation—whether accurate, manufactured, or some combination of the two—can have an impact on job prospects and the ability to raise capital for startups. And people’s social status affects their marriage prospects and partners.

    Ratings profoundly affect consumer choice. One survey of more than 1,000 people reported that two-thirds of respondents read online reviews, that 90% of customers who accessed reviews said that their buying decisions were influenced by positive reviews, and 86% said that negative reviews influenced their choices. The scholarly literature concurs with the importance of consumer ratings. One article noted that, “consumer reviews have been shown to predict purchasing decisions … to drive further consumer ratings … and to have more influence than expert reviews.” Moreover, that same piece stated that, “sales figures increase as a function of product ratings rather than the quality of the product.”

    But are they accurate?

    The potent influence of consumer ratings raises the question: how accurate are these ratings that so powerfully affect judgment and decision-making? The answer to this question depends on what you mean by accurate.

    Consider three examples that vary both in the importance of selecting the right provider and also in the extent to which there are objective criteria of performance.

    Doctors

    There’s probably nothing more important than getting the best possible medical treatment. Medical outcomes, ranging from the degree of improvement in a person’s illness to the frequency of iatrogenic (medical-treatment caused) illness, are observable. You’d expect consumers to be fairly accurate in assessing the quality of the care they receive. But they aren’t.

    Consumer’s Checkbook, a membership-subscription organization that operates in several metropolitan areas, including San Francisco, asks consumers to rate primary care physicians. Checkbook also surveys practicing physicians for their nominations of the best doctors in various specialties, including primary care. The organization, which accepts no advertising, also performs its own physician quality ratings.

    Of the 104 top-rated primary care doctors as assessed by patients in 2014, just 17 were nominated as the best by their medical peers. And barely 60% of the doctors rated highest by patients were top-rated by Checkbook.