中国公司也许会对回归A股感到后悔

    去年底，唐岩带着他的交友软件陌陌登陆纳斯达克市场。他把陌陌描述为社交软件Tinder和图片共享软件Snapchat的结合体。这只股票在短短几个月里上涨了20%，给曾做过网站编辑的唐岩带来了8亿多美元的身家。但唐岩并不像大家所想的那么开心。尽管陌陌在美国取得了成功，但在火爆的A股市场，上市公司的表现要好得多。

    因此，今年6月23日，唐岩和陌陌的另外几名大股东发出要约，打算收购该公司剩余股份，以求在中国重新上市。欣喜的投资者抬高了陌陌的股价，至少一开始是这样。但从那时起，中国股市开始下挫；和其他几十家打算今年回归A股的中国公司一样，陌陌陷入了迷茫之中，投资者开始怀疑股票是不是买对了。

    当初唐岩想让陌陌回归A股的原因显而易见。36岁的唐岩住在北京，今年A股的火爆场面都被他看在眼里。截至6月中旬，沪市传统公司的股价上涨了60%，以科技企业为主的深圳市场更是飙升了160%。就连现在，重挫之后的A股今年仍有80%的涨幅。和在纽约上市的中国公司相比，一些A股公司的估值达到了前者的两倍、三倍、甚至四倍。

    注意到这种差异的并非唐岩一人。金融信息平台Dealogic提供的数据显示，今年初以来，在美上市的中国公司发出的收购要约价值已达270亿美元，是之前六年总和的两倍多。规模最大的管理层收购来自中国第二大网络搜索引擎奇虎360，达到84亿美元。其他要回归的公司还包括有中国Facebook之称的人人网、一家连锁酒店、一家房地产公司和交友网站世纪佳缘。

    北京大学光华管理学院教授鲍大雷指出：“中美市场对公司的估值存在差异。眼下，重新在中国上市更合算。”

    但最近A股市场岌岌可危，这让这股退市潮受到了质疑。中国股市在过去三周时间里暴跌30%，政府因此全面出手救市，甚至暂停了新股发行。尽管目前点位仍高于年初的水平，但6月中旬以来A股市值已蒸发约3万亿美元。

    中国股市和美国市场有着本质上的区别，前者甚至有更明显的赌博色彩。9000万散户误以为政府能控制股市局面，并且经常在官方媒体发出呼吁时建仓，最近的情况就是如此。一年来，尽管企业盈利能力下降，经济增速放慢，但中国股市节节攀升。《红色资本主义》一书的作者弗雷泽•豪伊说：“在过去一年时间里，中国投资者的行为反复表明，只要他们觉得能赚到钱，买进纯粹的垃圾股也乐此不疲。”

    总的来说，中国投资者有机会买到这些回归的科技股是件好事。但最近大批中国公司收购自身股票的行为也表明它们既羡慕A股，又目光短浅，这样的思路危机四伏。就在陌陌发出收购要约几天前，以科技股为核心的深圳创业板开始下挫，这让唐岩体会到了A股的震荡会有多么剧烈。

    此外，IPO在中国面临的监管障碍可能会让这些曾经的纽约上市公司为回归A股等上一年，甚至更长时间。豪伊指出：“在中国，有几百家公司等着上市，许多从美股回归的公司都排在后面。”

    到了陌陌等公司可以在国内上市的时候，有关回归A股的争论也许已经结束。纽约股市研究机构Summit Research Partners分析师Henry Guo认为：“退出美国市场并在中国重新上市的一个关键依据是两个市场的估值差异。”他指出，A股暴跌以来，“中国投资者对估值变得越来越谨慎” 。

    中国公司拿到了回家的船票，但到家后等着它们的未必是它们想看到的。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    Late last year, Tang Yan took his Chinese dating app Momo—which he describes as a mix of Tinder and Snapchat—public on the Nasdaq. In just a few months, the stock rose 20%, and earned Tang, a former website editor, a net worth of more than $800 million. But Tang wasn’t as happy as you’d think. Despite Momo’s success on the U.S. exchange, companies trading in the red-hot Chinese stock markets were doing much better.

    So on June 23, Tang and a few of Momo’s other big shareholders proposed buying out the rest of the company’s stakeholders with an eye on relisting the company in China. Pleased investors sent the stock upward, at least at first. Since then, Chinese stock exchanges have tanked, and like dozens of other Chinese companies attempting the same maneuver this year, Momo is now in limbo — leaving investors wondering if buying a ticket home was the right move.

    It’s easy to see why Tang had originally wanted to take the company to China. The 36-year-old who lives in Beijing has watched companies trading on China’s stock markets go on a tear this year. In Shanghai, shares of traditional companies rose 60% through mid-June. A tech-heavy exchange in Shenzhen rocketed 160%. Even now, despite the tumult, Chinese stocks are up 80% for the year, and some Chinese companies boast valuations double, triple, even quadruple those of Chinese companies listed in New York

    Tang isn’t alone in noticing the disparity. So far this year there have been $27 billion worth of buyout offers of Chinese companies listed in the U.S., says Dealogic, more than double the amount over the past six years combined. The largest was the $8.4 billion management bid in June for Qihoo 360, which runs China’s second largest search engine. Others included Renren, known as the Chinese Facebook, a hotel chain, a real estate firm, and the matchmaking site Jiayuan.

    “The China and U.S. markets are valuing companies differently,” Paul Gillis, a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, says. “For now, there is money to be made by relisting in China.”

    But the recent crisis is casting doubt on that corporate exodus. Chinese stocks have plunged 30% in the last three weeks, leading the country to enact sweeping support measures, and put a temporary halt to IPOs altogether. Though Chinese stocks are up from where they started the year, roughly $3 trillion in market cap has been erased since mid-June.

    Chinese stock markets are fundamentally different than America’s—and China’s are even more of a casino. An army of 90 million small investors falsely believes the government can control the stock market and often piles into stocks when the state-run press urges them, which it’s done recently. Stocks’ rise over the past year has come as business profitability and the economy slows. “Chinese investors have repeatedly shown over the year they will happily pile into complete crap if they think they can make money,” Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism, says.

    It’s generally a good thing that Chinese investors will have a chance to buy the tech companies relisting there. But the recent spate of buyout deals also reflect a mix of envy and myopic thinking that’s filled with pitfalls. Just days before Momo’s buyout offer, the tech-centric ChiNext board in Shenzhen started its descent, giving Tang a taste of the volatility that could be in store in China.

    There are also regulatory hurdles to IPO in the country that could leave the former New York-listed companies waiting for a year or more to relist. “There are hundreds of companies queuing to list in China and many of these companies are joining the back of the queue,” Howie says.

    By the time Momo and other companies can re-IPO in China, the argument for doing so might be over. “The key rationale of the whole delisting and relisting is the valuation discrepancy between the two markets,” says analyst Henry Guo of Summit Research Partners, who notes that since Chinese stocks have crashed “China investors have become more and more cautious on valuation.”

    Chinese companies have their ticket home. But they may not like what they find when they get there.