博世：2020年自动驾驶汽车应可上高速公路

    德国工业巨头博世集团称，只要监管能跟上技术前进的步伐，自动驾驶汽车只需五年就应该能开上高速公路。

    博世的看法和特斯拉汽车首席执行官埃隆•穆斯克不谋而合。穆斯克预计，2020年前后汽车全自动行驶技术就会成熟，届时汽车将不再需要驾驶者的操控。

    对博世来说，这应当意味着向驾驶辅助系统和高级自动驾驶产品的开发投入更多资金，并由此获得更高的收入。从2011年开始，博世的工程师一直在加利福尼亚州帕罗奥图和德国阿布施塔特从事这方面的工作。机动车部门是博世在北美的最大业务部门，为汽车、非公路用车、两轮机动车、航运和铁路运输提供技术。

    预刹车和车道偏离警告等驾驶辅助系统的蓬勃发展正在推动汽车行业迈向自动驾驶时代。举例来说，据博世管理委员会成员德克·霍海森博士介绍，该公司驾驶辅助产品的销售额正以每年三分之一的速度上升，预计这个领域的销售额到2016年将突破10亿欧元（约10.9亿美元）。

    本月早些时候博世公布，2014年该公司机动车业务北美地区销售额增长近10%，达到80亿美元。该业务的客户包括谷歌、特斯拉汽车和保时捷。博世北美地区并表总销售额为113亿美元，机动车业务占70%以上。

    为满足需求，博世又聘用了数百名工程师来研究驾驶辅助技术。目前为博世改良驾驶辅助系统的工程师约有2000名，在短短两年时间里增加了整整700人。

    如果各国的法律框架没能和技术实现同步，自动驾驶汽车的发展就可能陷入停滞，至少可能变慢。高度自动化的驾驶系统可以处理任何具体情况，驾驶人则可随时获得车辆控制权。但按照联合国1968年《道路交通公约》的规定，开车时使用这种系统在许多国家都不合法。

    在美国，自动驾驶车辆属于合法事物，因为美国法律从未认定它们违法。但最终，联邦法规的缺失将成为一个障碍。随着谷歌、奥迪、戴姆勒和特斯拉等公司开始测试自动驾驶技术，一些州已经自行出台了规定。如果博世的预言成真，自动驾驶汽车恐怕首先不得不穿越各州各国的规章制度交织而成的大网，而不是在统一的指导原则下迅速起步。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    In just five years, cars should be driving themselves on the freeway, as long as regulations can keep up with the advancing technology, according to German-industrial conglomerate Robert Bosch Group.

    The forecast is in line with Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that the technology for fully autonomous cars—those that require no driver supervision—will be ready by about 2020.

    For Bosch, this should mean deeper investment—and greater revenues—in driver assistance systems, as well as development of advanced automated driving products, something its engineers have been working on since 2011 at locations in Palo Alto, California and Abstatt, Germany. The company’s mobility unit—by far its largest business sector in North America—provides technology for automobiles, as well as off-highway applications, two-wheelers, shipping, and rail transportation.

    The boom in driver assistance systems, such as predictive emergency braking and lane departure warnings, is propelling the industry towards automated driving. For instance, Bosch’s sales in driver assistance systems is already increasing by a third every year, according to Dr. Dirk Hoheisel, a member of Bosch’s board of management. Sales in this field are expected to exceed 1 billion euros (about $1.09 billion) in 2016, Hoheisel says.

    Earlier this month, Bosch reported that its mobility business unit—which has a customer list that includes Google, Tesla Motors, and Porsche—saw sales in North America grow nearly 10% to $8 billion in 2014. The mobility unit accounted for more than 70% of the $11.3 billion in total consolidated sales in the region.

    Bosch has responded to demand by hiring hundreds of engineers to work on driver assistance tech. About 2,000 engineers are working on refining driver assistance systems at Bosch. That’s a good 700 more than just two years ago.

    The progress toward self-driving cars could stall—or at least slow—if countries don’t create a legal framework at the pace of technological development. In many countries, highly automated driving—in which the system can handle all situations in a defined case, but the driver is ready to take the controls—isn’t legal thanks to rules outlined in the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic of 1968.

    In the U.S., self driving cars are legal because they’ve never been outlawed. Eventually, the lack of federal rules will become an obstacle. It’s already prompted some states to come up with their own rules as companies including Google, Audi, Daimler and Tesla test automated driving tech. If Bosch’s prediction is going to come true, automated cars may first have to navigate a tangled web of state-by-state and country-by-country regulations, rather than swiftly take off under unified guidelines.